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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I almost feel like the NAM may shift a tick east looking at 5h for 18z. Guess we will see here in a couple of minutes.

The trend has been for the whole trough axis to go more negative tilt, which also means the vortmax is swung a bit more east but then up.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Not liking that left turn, which would seem to threaten most of C/N Maine with a snow-to-rain scenario given the paucity of cold air.  6" snow followed by hours of rain = a mess that I don't see on the few models I can easily access.  (Nor on any recent AFDs from GYX.)  Hope I'm misinterpreting.   ;)

Storm is cut-off in gulf of ME, so warm sector diminishes...

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Maybe I'll look like a fool in the end, but I actually like the trend.

No fools here man. That's why it's fun to discuss in this forum. I could see the shift earlier on. This will be a much better run imo for everyone. No mega dry slot shifting through, also will keep people to the east cooler. NAM was too amped, we all kinda knew.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My best guess in terms of track, intensity RA/SN line and max snowfall area/total.

East coast.gif

I think that's a good representation of where we are at.  

NE MA/S NH/ME jackpot.. maybe down into NE CT for DIT too.  Only wild card would be some stalled or slow moving deform band in the interior but for maximum impact I think it's somewhere in the vicinity of the MA/NH/ME zone.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is def east through 36 hours. Overall trough dug further south so maybe that is good news for an earlier stall that also won't torch/dryslot everyone

There's 0% chance of it's 12z run so I'll go 100% confidence in shift east.  SYR isn't getting 8-14" in this.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

There's 0% chance of it's 12z run so I'll go 100% confidence in shift east.  SYR isn't getting 8-14" in this.

Yeah its pretty safe to bet on regression to mean...like 00z Euro was pretty far east so we all knew it would come west....12z NAM was the outlier west so it's pretty safe to say it will bump east next run.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's almost like a further digging trough causes a swing east at some point because of fujiwara...that could put it in a sweet position for a stall.

One thing for certain - sometimes people overuse the word trend, but the models are moving this way over multiple cycles now.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, JC-CT said:

One thing for certain - sometimes people overuse the word trend, but the models are moving this way over multiple cycles now.

Yeah, when I talked to runnawayiceberg yesterday about max potential...this is the type of trend I wanted to see WRT larger amounts...a clear sign and synoptic support for a bit of a stall. We are def seeing that. At least a slow-down if it doesn't actually stall. The max potential in this has definitely increased because of the more southerly closing off of the upper air.

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