Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is going to annihilate eastern areas prob...its a bit east of the GFS.

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks like Ukie through hr 60.About to nuke.

Yes, Was just going to comment on that.

[CoastalWx]

Already closing off, might be slower.

[JC-CT]

And yet, not all that impressive with qpf?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Already closing off, might be slower.

Yeah def a tick slower, but nothing like GFS.

[JC-CT]

Probably more realistic than the GFS's 3-4" for bos

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

In a nod to Kevin euro starts snow pre dawn of Wednesday 

The Pre-Dawn Awakening

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Probably more realistic than the GFS's 3-4" for bos

Yeah, This run is better for the folks to the west.

[wxsniss]

Thru 60 hr a tick west, gonna please the Philly-NYC I95 crowd

But I think this kicks east in time thanks to blocking, big hit coming for eastern SNE

[CT Rain]

That's one hell of a solution on the Euro. Beast mode. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

Yeah, This run is better for the folks to the west.

Pretty good agreement

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Pretty good agreement

It is.

[CT Rain]

Local min over CT with two maxes in QPF - one SW and one NE. 

[CoastalWx]

That's quite the mid level shellacking out west. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, CT Rain said:

That's one hell of a solution on the Euro. Beast mode. 

When are you guys doing a map, i would think this evenings news everyone will start pushing them out?

[WinterWolf]

Perfect....lock that Mother in.....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nice tick closer with the mid levels, better solution for the west. Still have 2 days to go.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It is.

Bigger question mark is probably how it meanders up near you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You know I have little clue about enso and how it affects tracks along the EC. Only the greats like yourself can tell us. 

I have a good reason for my call here, Lets see what happens. 

You could be right...we'll see. All I meant is that blocking and later phasing are not mutually exclusive.

[CoastalWx]

Definitely slower to depart though, something to watch.

[DiehardFF]

Around 7 inches of snow for New Haven, not too bad I suppose lol.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Local min over CT with two maxes in QPF - one SW and one NE. 

Yeah, did a little skip over us as it was deepening. Still widespread 6-12"

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting observations from our friends at WPC re the MDD, which I have bold below : 

 

"....Model spread with the entire system is mostly centered on the East Coast/nor'easter evolution. The 12Z NAM gradually focuses its low center a bit west of the model consensus, with the 00Z CMC AND 00Z ECMWF farthest east. The 12Z GFS and 00Z UKMET split the difference, with the GFS a bit west of the UKMET. There has been some westward trending of the NAM and GFS guidance over the last 24 hours, and also the GEFS members from 06Z. This is likely related to the details of a persistent and relatively strong blocking ridge over eastern Canada. It is feasible that some additional westward shifting of the guidance may occur, and especially as it relates to the low track relative to New England since the guidance maintains this blocking pattern. Also, the guidance takes the closed low feature dropping south over Ontario down to the southeast toward the Ohio Valley by Thursday which may help to back the large scale flow enough for the New England closed low/nor'easter to track farther left. Overall, WPC is favoring a general model blend through 36 hours, and then a solution very close to the 12Z GFS thereafter...."

[Sugarloaf1989]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Probably.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Bridges_in_New_Haven_County,_Connecticut

LOL

[mattm4242]

How does this look for the north shore and Cape Ann? Work in a super market and am unsure how much extra product to bring in.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice tick closer with the mid levels, better solution for the west. Still have 2 days to go. as stated, UKish look would be awesome for many.

No you don't. You are sweet there according to what I see. Any closer and you lose the RH in the mid levels.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is going to annihilate eastern areas prob...its a bit east of the GFS.

Honing on a solution.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Local min over CT with two maxes in QPF - one SW and one NE. 

There midlevels seem to try and transition more east in the middle of the storm after an initial tuck west...though the qpf min might be somewhat overdone. I don't think there's any real obvious dryslots, but the banding may jump a little.

[weathafella]

What a beautiful mid level low track!

[Cold Miser]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is going to annihilate eastern areas prob...its a bit east of the GFS.

I've seen a few forecasts showing rain pretty far back into eastern 1/4 of CT, cutting up north of Providence, keeping snow totals down.   It seems like forecasts like this just stick to one model solution vs. true met input.