Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[aldie 22]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Auburn MA or NH?

MA

[jbenedet]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Pope a dope on a rope

That wasn't a forecast. I was reading model output...

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm gonna be in Auburn for a few days how is it looking there?

Georgia? 

Sunny and 70ish

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm expecting the Euro to be similar to the Ukie

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, at this lead time, a 25-50 mile tick is within margin of error. Heck, it was off by 150miles in Jan 15 at hr48.

Right...ne to a later phase.

[WeatherX]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Ukie

Here's your 96 hour totals per 12z UK

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, jbenedet said:

That wasn't a forecast. I was reading model output...

Lol I know . Worry warts like MPM out in full force

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

MA

They look to be in a prime spot for double digit snowfall totals. It's one town south of ORH. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right...ne to a later phase.

Right...progressive flow that supported it. This is complete opposite.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

They look to be in a prime spot for double digit snowfall totals. It's one town south of ORH. 

Thanks!

[bobbutts]

27 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'm thinking 12-24" as first guess here.

This looks like our best storm since 2014-2015 season.

I haven't seen them all for sure, but I'm waiting for a model that doesn't crush our area.

[jbenedet]

The trend to be more tucked in up to 40 N is real, but the east kick south of SNE is also gaining confidence as well. GEFS is trending more aggressive with the east kick, so that offsets the early track close to the coast.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I like me the Berks for the safest location so far. Pete's house in particular.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I like me the Berks for the safest location so far. Pete's house in particular.

Dryslot is safe as well

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The trend to be more tucked in up to 40 N is real, but the east kick south of SNE is also gaining confidence as well. GEFS is trending more aggressive with the east kick, so that offsets the early track close to the coast.

The east kick is what we want for a big stall around ACK or Cape elbow. As the upper low elongates eastward, it is not gaining latitude very quickly and that low just spins. That would be the ultimate prolific solution for E MA into SE NH. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The trend to be more tucked in up to 40 N is real, but the east kick south of SNE is also gaining confidence as well. GEFS is trending more aggressive with the east kick, so that offsets the early track close to the coast.

Agree. There could be two max zones. 

[JC-CT]

from an imby perspective - a thing of beauty

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right...progressive flow that supported it. This is complete opposite.

Right....negative PNA remains. 

Explain to me how weak el Nino events favor eastern New England.. plenty of blocking in those seasons.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Gonna be some 12-18” amounts in a large chunk of interior SNE

[weathafella]

In a nod to Kevin euro starts snow pre dawn of Wednesday 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna be some 12-18” amounts in a large chunk of interior SNE

I agree

[ORH_wxman]

This run should be west of 00z....though not a surprise given how far east the 00z run was.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....negative PNA remains. 

Explain to me how weak el Nino events favor eastern New England.. plenty of blocking in those seasons.

 

You know I have little clue about enso and how it affects tracks along the EC. Only the greats like yourself can tell us. 

I have a good reason for my call here, Lets see what happens. 

[DiehardFF]

I wonder if New Haven will get screwed again with no snow lol. We never got into those heavier bands to promote cooling during the last storm. This storm looks cooler aloft, we shall see.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This run should be west of 00z....though not a surprise given how far east the 00z run was.

Seemed to be somewhere in between the speed of the 12z GFS and 0z Euro with the southern stream. Closer to the 12z GFS.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

In a nod to Kevin euro starts snow pre dawn of Wednesday 

A lot of weenie snow early...prob not much accumulation in the first 6-8 hours.

[CoastalWx]

Stuff Wed morning is nuisance stuff from onshore flow. Won't be anything meaningful.

[JC-CT]

Just now, DiehardFF said:

I wonder if New Haven will get screwed again with no snow lol. We never got into those heavier bands to promote cooling during the last storm. This storm looks cooler aloft, we shall see.

Probably.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Bridges_in_New_Haven_County,_Connecticut

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

In a nod to Kevin euro starts snow pre dawn of Wednesday 

It’s a long duration 2 dayer

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Ukie through hr 60.About to nuke.