Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Ginx snewx]

i have been deluged at work, any body post this, probs of 6+ EPS

[SouthCoastMA]

I'll do a hard pass if it resembles Jan 11. No thx

[Buddy1987]

The GFS is an incredible storm! Almost 2'' qpf for the NW hills of CT and way more for NE Mass/Southern NH.

[Chrisrotary12]

Much of this falls appears to fall as rain using the GFS thermals in eastern Mass.  But good grief if the thermals are too warm as we suspect.

[ORH_wxman]

Ray's marriage might be over before it begins if they get 3.90 inches of QPF in NE MA as the GFS shows. Glued to the computer for days.

[CT Rain]

GFS clown maps are lol

[WintersComing]

Great look here

[Typhoon Tip]

Will,

I don't have a problem with the stall over ACK.   

In fact, I am almost surprised we haven't had a Fuji capture yet as it is.  The negative tilt system is unusually slow ...but, it's also deepening aggressively through the deep troposphere which will induce some further slowing.. You've got slowing from a couple of source: one being the vestigial influence of the west based -NAO, and the other being centric to the system evolution.  

The marriage of those two while this evolves, as we get closer in ? the models may latch on to a stack scenario ... 

Also, the NAM runs really began indicating more proficient phasing with the N/stream ... The GFS runs have show mere tendencies but fail?  Then, you can see the S/stream component sort of "squirts" out along the SNE Coast in prior GFS runs, while the N/stream then digs uneventfully through the M/A.  IF IF IF the N/stream gets more involve, this thing would probably end up deeper yet in the total vortex evolution (all levels), but would also do so farther SW and ... that would feed back into more stall tendencies also related in total to all these same facets only amplifying them.  

But that's my take... It doesn't mean I'm saying everyone's wrong and this is going to stall; just that I can see with relative ease how one could transpire with this whole thing. 

[WintersComing]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Much of this falls appears to fall as rain using the GFS thermals in eastern Mass.  But good grief if the thermals are too warm as we suspect.

Disagree with the rain statement.  Boston area never gets above 0 C in the 850's

[Sn0waddict]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OH, 57... well, it straddles the beach really ...it's nicker  but it resumes that ENE trajectory toward ISP (eastern tip of LI) from there...  Your original word choice sort of cast that as more obviously embodied over earth in the MA though -  ...all good

Fair enough ha seems like no other model supports the straddle at the moment thankfully 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Will,

I don't have a problem with the stall over ACK.   

In fact, I am almost surprised we have had a fuji capture yet.  The negative tilt system is unusually slow ...but, it's also deepening aggressively through the deep troposphere which will induce some further slowing.. You've got slowing from a couple of source: one being the vestigial influence of the west based -NAO, and the other being centric to the system evolution.  

The marriage of those two while this evolves, as we get closer in ? the models may latch on to a stack scenario ... 

Also, the NAM runs really began indicating more proficient phasing with the N/stream ... The GFS runs have show mere tendencies but fail?  Then, you can see the S/stream component sort of "squirts" out along the SNE Coast in prior GFS runs, while the N/stream then digs uneventfully through the M/A.  IF IF IF the N/stream gets more involve, this thing would probably end up deeper yet in the total vortex evolution (all levels), but would also do so farther SW and ... that would feed back into more stall tendencies also related in total to all these same facets only amplifying them.  

But that's my take... It doesn't mean I'm saying everyone's wrong and this is going to stall; just that I can see with relative ease how one could transpire with this whole thing. 

OH I wasn't saying the ACK stall is implausible...just that these things tend to happen a little further northeast....other guidance does this. But I will admit that if we continue to see that trend of a deeper ULL going to town earlier like that, then the ACK stall become much more likely. The incredible deepening is definitely key, I agree...we sort of saw this somewhat in Jan 2011, though the GFS takes it a step further and slows it even more than that one.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'll get a CF up into the 925-950 layer too that the GFS will probably drive too far inland. It becomes more diffuse as you rise in height, but you'll still have one. It's pretty hard to rain much more than about 5-10 miles inland when the mid-level centers track outside the canal.

Nice... good news for here.

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM trakcs things a bit outside of ACK and doesn't stall it like the GFS does, though it definitely slows down. It's a huge hit for E MA into SE NH and still a major snowstorm for the rest of SNE.

[wxsniss]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shocker.

Yep, I've been giving Euro something like 75% weight all along on this system.

Was thinking the same as Dendrite this morning... NAM by virtue of legacy, but also because it's the leadoff suite member we see, gets its value inflated. I mean, 0z-6z-12z are some embarrassingly off NAM runs if Euro/GFS blend verifies.

[weathafella]

So the slightly less sh itty CMC and GFS against the sh ittier NAM and ICON

[DomNH]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy. This is fun when it's on a weekday. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

So the slightly less sh itty CMC and GFS against the sh ittier NAM and ICON

We still know who the ruler is no matter what anyone thinks.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ray's marriage might be over before it begins if they get 3.90 inches of QPF in NE MA as the GFS shows. Glued to the computer for days.

Did you mean weenie glued to the computer?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Did you mean weenie glued to the computer?

At least he got a trip to Uganda out of it.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

We still know who the ruler is no matter what anyone thinks.

Gfs and cmc seem to be a bit of a nod to the euro. 75% euro and 25% everything else would be great for many people here.

we hope.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ray's marriage might be over before it begins if they get 3.90 inches of QPF in NE MA as the GFS shows. Glued to the computer for days.

Sell that....just like I sold the hugger scenario.

[CoastalWx]

GFS and Canadian are similar in behavior with the ULL and it closing off to the south. The QPF immediately NW of the low center signals very strong low level forcing there. You can see at hr 66 a funky MSLP depiction east of Chatham.The 925 LLJ is 70kts there. It's almost like a CF, but not...more like an extension of low pressure and it trying to reform there where WAA is going wild. This has been a feature on guidance for awhile.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well... sufficed it is to say ... it is already proven to have been a good idea, to have left the "Major" complexion on the table in the early pages of this thread.  I annotated back whence how to get more phasing done ... one plausible way to get to Major status...  It more than just seems that is happening now... What I annotated back then is now being done so with perhaps half proficiency ... certainly more coherent than mere speculation over whether it would or would not.

Anyway, the long of the short, ...this trending intense is pretty heavily agreed upon, and there are govern circulation arguments that support from multiple sources...  This should be a higher impact/Major event... 

Now, obviously that contains a U.S. 2017 Tax-Code tomb's worth of text to describe what/where that all aligns... 

 

 

[Hoth]

I like that it starts during the morning even better. No midnight hallucinations watching the floodlights out the window as we wait for first flakes. That was one of the things that made '96 so special for me.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

GFS clown maps are lol

especially when soundings best guess say snow but Algos say rain. I think that is Convective feedback in eMA

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs and cmc seem to be a bit of a nod to the euro. 75% euro and 25% everything else would be great for many people here.

we hope.

Some thought the Euro may cave towards the ampy Nam earlier with it moving west, It may tic west, But it doesn't usually make huge jumps, I lol'd at that thought.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

especially when soundings best guess say snow but Algos say rain. I think that is Convective feedback in eMA

I don't think so. That's some very strong low level forcing there... we get the mid level magic back this way from these 700/850 low tracks. 

[CTWeatherFreak]

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

GFS clown maps are lol

Nams and GFS seem to love regurgitating the central ct screw zone .. CMC says What screw zone?  Oh Canada!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Will,

I don't have a problem with the stall over ACK.   

In fact, I am almost surprised we haven't had a Fuji capture yet as it is.  The negative tilt system is unusually slow ...but, it's also deepening aggressively through the deep troposphere which will induce some further slowing.. You've got slowing from a couple of source: one being the vestigial influence of the west based -NAO, and the other being centric to the system evolution.  

The marriage of those two while this evolves, as we get closer in ? the models may latch on to a stack scenario ... 

Also, the NAM runs really began indicating more proficient phasing with the N/stream ... The GFS runs have show mere tendencies but fail?  Then, you can see the S/stream component sort of "squirts" out along the SNE Coast in prior GFS runs, while the N/stream then digs uneventfully through the M/A.  IF IF IF the N/stream gets more involve, this thing would probably end up deeper yet in the total vortex evolution (all levels), but would also do so farther SW and ... that would feed back into more stall tendencies also related in total to all these same facets only amplifying them.  

But that's my take... It doesn't mean I'm saying everyone's wrong and this is going to stall; just that I can see with relative ease how one could transpire with this whole thing. 

Nice post. There’s been a noticeable trend of earlier stream involvement. Would be nice for the euro to latch onto that idea today. It does not mean tucked and rain for east zones either, some have been thinking is but it is false. It just gets us in a better spot to stall it over ACK, everyone but the islands would be happy with that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Days and days of snow for all this run . Pre dawn Wed to late Thursday