Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, JC-CT said:

Really? They have been doing that a while

I guess I never truly look at their predictions for amounts until the day before.  

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

Over the Elbow at hr 72

Jan '11-esque.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

Over the Elbow at hr 72

Well east of there.

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's clown range Reggie snowfall algorithm for those interested

 

 

I can live with this.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Would that be snow here? Thermals look suspicious to me.

[JC-CT]

CMC is closer to consensus now too

[HinghamBoss]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The stall over ACK is pretty incredible for parts of SNE and SE NH...that turns a major storm into a HECS for some. Not biting quite yet (still leery of the gulf of maine stall instead as Ray was mentioning last night)...but if we indeed see a further S stall, then we can start talking much more prolific amounts.

Would places on the South Shore have to deal with tree crushing paste or a cold heavy rain?  I can tell you around here the destruction and clean up from this past weekend is still quite a tall task.

[powderfreak]

Just now, weathafella said:

Well east of there.

Huh?  Jerry your eyes finally going?

 

[weathafella]

This would be historic verbatim for many.

[Baroclinic Zone]

From what I see, that was a nod towards the Euro.  The ridging downstream look better so the SLP gets shoved E some.  Still needs some work bu that is awfully close.

[WintersComing]

Seems as though the surface precip type is very very reflective of the upper atmosphere temps.  850 temps are below 0 c the whole time for everyone.

[wx2fish]

That would be pretty incredible. Close to 3" qpf here

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I want to sex that mid level track.

Holywood might make a movie about that.  Forget women sleeping with the creature from the black lagoon.  That is so passe'. 

You are on to something.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol tries to bring rain to ORH with -1C at 925.  Good luck getting that to happen.

There would prob be a CF though somewhere over E MA....the immediate coastline may get rain contamination for a time...hard to say for sure...but you'd almost certainly be pasting prolific amounts west of at least 128...maybe even closer in.

[weathafella]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Huh?  Jerry your eyes finally going?

 

SV has a different depiction.   Maybe someone can post-I’m strictly mobile at work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The stall over ACK is pretty incredible for parts of SNE and SE NH...that turns a major storm into a HECS for some. Not biting quite yet (still leery of the gulf of maine stall instead as Ray was mentioning last night)...but if we indeed see a further S stall, then we can start talking much more prolific amounts.

Yea, I'll sell that further south stall, but buy away on the Boston MECS.

GFS cave we we were expecting.

[JBinStoughton]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

This would be historic verbatim for many.

Does anyone think this is going to happen? 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, powderfreak said:

lol tries to bring rain to ORH with -1C at 925.  Good luck.

right ... agreed. 

I mentioned this yesterday ... I'll say it again.  I think folks are bit jaded by the last system?  We spent a lot of time explaining why the GFS has a warm bias in the lowest critical thickness interval ( ~ 1300 m) leading up to that event.   Wouldn't you know it!  The event ...rained anyway... ugh.  That's perfect powdered doubt, just add water.

In this case, the whole antic of the last storm insidiously cloaked the GFS' bias of being too warm in that level by virtue of raining anyway.  

Well, now we are onto this guy and we have to consider said bias objectively, but it may be harder for people to visualize that right now. Not one's fault per se...but, the GFS definitely has a lot of synoptic arguments going against raining where it has 40 unit bar of UVM falling through 850 mb temperatures of -4 C ...when in this case, there really is not actual source for warm air in that leve to surface.  

Looks like it may be moot anyway...this run is colder in profile so far from what I gather so we'll see.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

somewhere over E MA....the immediate coastline may get rain contamination for a time...hard to say for sure...but you'd almost certainly be pasting prolific amounts west of at least 128...maybe even

It still looks a bit warm at 925.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Snows into thur night weeeeeee.

[jbenedet]

Looks like 12-15 hrs worth of Gale Force winds for most of MA coast. Could have widespread 50 -60kt kt gusts with that 850 mb stinger jet collocated with deep convection as well.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

SV has a different depiction.   Maybe someone can post-I’m strictly mobile at work.

Ewall looks east of there too....prob just depends on exactly where they are putting the "L" as you can see the lowe pressure is pretty broad extending east

 

 

[WintersComing]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

It has me at 35 and rain, which is a lot better than last week's 45. We take.

Ya I highly doubt rain...maybe some mixing but all of the thermals are below 0 C throughout best I can tell.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It still looks a bit warm at 925.

Sell.

[wxsniss]

Looks like jacks in northeast MA (not looking at snow clown map, I'm assuming the thermal profiles are wrong)

And suddenly NAM is the odd one out... best consensus between Euro + GFS

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Looks over land to me at hour 57, no?

OH, 57... well, it straddles the beach really ...it's nicker  but it resumes that ENE trajectory toward ISP (eastern tip of LI) from there...  Your original word choice sort of cast that as more obviously embodied over earth in the MA though -  ...all good

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There would prob be a CF though somewhere over E MA....the immediate coastline may get rain contamination for a time...hard to say for sure...but you'd almost certainly be pasting prolific amounts west of at least 128...maybe even closer in.

C.f. would be near 128 imo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Looks like jacks in northeast MA (not looking at snow clown map, I'm assuming the thermal profiles are wrong)

And suddenly NAM is the odd one out... best consensus between Euro + GFS

Shocker.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It still looks a bit warm at 925.

You'll get a CF up into the 925-950 layer too that the GFS will probably drive too far inland. It becomes more diffuse as you rise in height, but you'll still have one. It's pretty hard to rain much more than about 5-10 miles inland when the mid-level centers track outside the canal.

[Damage In Tolland]

Days and days of snow for all this run . Pre dawn Wed to late Thursday