Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[weathafella]

GFS definitely not as tucked as NAM 

[JC-CT]

lock it in, tia

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Nah. We get to track dews at 384hr and faux severe soon. 

My post count will fall off considerably unless there is immanent severe.

[ORH_wxman]

This will definitely be a huge hit.

[powderfreak]

49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No way.

Phrased wrong haha.  Not "dry slot" in the sense of mid-level lower RH... but between two areas of greater forcing.  

[Sn0waddict]

Gfs icon and NAM all loook identical at hr 54. But it’s what happens next that matters.  The NAM goes west into NJ while icon goes in a more favorable NE direction.

[weathafella]

Quite the pummeling at 63 hours.

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s why they recommend not using the NAM

[Buddy1987]

Much closer to reality hopefully.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This will definitely be a huge hit.

They have all been big hits it seems for someone.

[weathafella]

Wow crusher!  Low just inside bm.

[wxsniss]

Hr 69... this run is GFS biggest hit yet for eastern SNE... 

[weathafella]

What a dumper!

[Hoth]

I can definitely get behind that look!

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Gfs icon and NAM all loook identical at gr 54. But it’s what happens next that matters.  The NAM goes west into NJ while icon goes in a more favorable NE direction.

Ah, where are you seeing that?

Never in fact goes on land in the guidance I've seen and in fact... starts bending right and crawls east along the S coast of LI and then perhaps as far west as over the CC this run...but it never actually gets over NJ

[wxsniss]

(and not buying those thermals at hr 69... even with last week's wounds still healing)

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Wow crusher!  Low just inside bm.

Funny thing is, placement of LP at 66 between NAM and GFS is really not that far off. It's what the NAM does on the NJ coast that makes all the worlds difference.

[weathafella]

Slows her down and bombs away!

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wow crusher!  Low just inside bm.

Much more realstic.

 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s why they recommend not using the NAM

Yeah, the 20 miles difference at 60 hours is embarrassing. 

[WintersComing]

Over the Elbow at hr 72

[powderfreak]

lol tries to bring rain to ORH with -1C at 925.  Good luck getting that to happen.

[weathafella]

Boston getting destroyed 

[CoastalWx]

Stalled and crushed.

[wxsniss]

This is the timing of capture I expected... actually pretty close to Euro

[weathafella]

Really keeps it pounding into Thursday 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I want to sex that mid level track.

[ORH_wxman]

The stall over ACK is pretty incredible for parts of SNE and SE NH...that turns a major storm into a HECS for some. Not biting quite yet (still leery of the gulf of maine stall instead as Ray was mentioning last night)...but if we indeed see a further S stall, then we can start talking much more prolific amounts.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

(and not buying those thermals at hr 69... even with last week's wounds still healing)

It has me at 35 and rain, which is a lot better than last week's 45. We take.

[Sn0waddict]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah, where are you seeing that?

Never in fact goes on land in the guidance I've seen and in fact... starts bending right and crawls east along the S coast of LI and then perhaps as far west as over the CC this run...but it never actually gets over NJ

Looks over land to me at hour 57, no?