Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[rnaude241]

If you toggle hours 51 to 52 on the 3kNAM you can see a huge just to the NW

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Hoth said:

Did not like the look of the Euro down here. If it gets any later we'll be enjoying a chilly nw wind and veiled sunshine Wednesday.

I don't think it will be that bad

[NorEastermass128]

NAM is another cold rainer for those in E SNE. 

I quit if the EURO caves...

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No way.

He is not dry slotting either not with that track.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Whats hunter mtn got on nammy

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

NAM is another cold rainer for those in E SNE. 

I quit if the EURO caves...

Given most other guidance is pretty much a toaster here... hard to imagine the euro isn’t going to fall in line.

i think big snow will be confined to ORH points west

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

NAM is another cold rainer for those in E SNE. 

I quit if the EURO caves...

It won’t cave in one shot.  That’s like a 100 mile shift.  It’ll take 3-4 runs easily.  The NAM is too far west, but a track maybe 50 Miles to the east of that is very possible and that’s still too far west for most 

[wxeyeNH]

What a crush for us in Dendriteland.  The biggest storm of the season.   Finally a 12 pluser...

[dendrite]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

NAM is another cold rainer for those in E SNE. 

I quit if the EURO caves...

In the history of weather boards, those threatening to quit have a 0% success rate. I think they're 0 for 4,852 now.

[dendrite]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

What a crush for us in Dendriteland.  The biggest storm of the season.   Finally a 12 pluser...

It's the NAM though and I'm not going to trust it with its handling of the synoptics this far out. Fun to look at, but next...

[Hoth]

Meh, NAM might be a little too tucked. I like a compromise. Track over the elbow, dry slot maybe over Block Island to the Cape, deform in CT up through ORH, central NH, coastal Maine. 

[Zeus]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

In the history of weather boards, those threatening to quit have a 0% success rate. I think they're 0 for 4,852 now.

Don't discourage him.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Given most other guidance is pretty much a toaster here... hard to imagine the euro isn’t going to fall in line.

i think big snow will be confined to ORH points west

Disagree.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Great run for out here. I would like to see more of the region get in on the goods though hopefully it’s too amped. Not much of a difference of impact between 6z and 12z in ORH county.

Beware dem warm 850's

[moneypitmike]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Two maxes this run, Mid Atlantic and up here.

It's a thin line on the coast.  Route 1 divider perhaps.  

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

It's a thin line on the coast.  Route 1 divider perhaps.  

That was 12"+ right out into the atlantic that run.

[dendrite]

It's too bad the NAM doesn't run last. It only gets airtime because it rolls out first and has pretty high res graphics.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I said this a few days ago, but this really is a Miller A/B system. In fact this is looking more Miller A over time, with a late phase after becoming vertically stacked around hr 72...

Would be <980 mb storm if we could bring forward the timing of that final phase by 12 hours or so...

I think it's more Miller B.

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

In the history of weather boards, those threatening to quit have a 0% success rate. I think they're 0 for 4,852 now.

Phil

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It's too bad the NAM doesn't run last. It only gets airtime because it rolls out first and has pretty high res graphics.

And then people think the other 12z guidance "trended" towards it lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dendrite said:

It's too bad the NAM doesn't run last. It only gets airtime because it rolls out first and has pretty high res graphics.

Seriously.  Run the Euro 1st.   The emotional investments in this already are numbing.  

[eyewall]

I would take that NAM run lol.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's too bad the NAM doesn't run last. It only gets airtime because it rolls out first and has pretty high res graphics.

My thoughts all along, Because its first, Its used as the bar.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's more Miller B.

Not anymore.  The main player in this storm is the s/w that just came onshore in Oregon. It gets a jolt from the ULL in Ontario though.

[NorEastermass128]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

In the history of weather boards, those threatening to quit have a 0% success rate. I think they're 0 for 4,852 now.

I'll quit for 2 hours before the excitement grows for the 3/12 threat...before that turns into a rainer/nonevent for the coast.

Dang, this hobby is frustrating. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The NAM would definitely be a few hours of fun back this way but I'll wait for the rest of the 12z thanks.

This storm is probably going to create some anxiety for those in hard-hit coastal communities or folks still without power. 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Disagree.

Yeah I have a hard time buying the NAM verbatim...it's basically agreeing with the ARW model which has like a 99% success rate of being too far amped. If we get something like the 06z NAM (which was still more amped than the 00z Euro and close to GFS), that would paste most folks outside of far SE areas.

[Whineminster]

20 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Great run for out here. I would like to see more of the region get in on the goods though hopefully it’s too amped. Not much of a difference of impact between 6z and 12z in ORH county.

ahh....the rest of the region has had their fair share over the years, its time for us to jack, and us only, while everyone else dryslots and rains.  

[Buddy1987]

51 hr ICON is a smidge NW of its 6z position thus far.

Edit: Def looking more like NAM thus far out to 54. LP hugging NJ coastline.

[jbenedet]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's more Miller B.

It's somewhat debatable at this point but the trend has been towards a sharper southern stream shortwave earlier on. You can see a defined SLP near the Gulf of Mexico now....

We'd still have a Nor'Easter without the Northern stream disturbance, so that tilts it towards a Miller A in my book....