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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Man that is one impressive phase on the 48 hr image, as that s/w that comes out of Canada is fully involved now. Big tilt on 5h. 

 

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Less phasing of the 2 thru 9z Wednesday.  May bode well to get this a tic or 2 east.  The ULL of Lake Superior make act to kick this east some.

Yeah, Looks a little weaker and north at H5, Trough not as sharp.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Less phasing of the 2 thru 9z Wednesday.  May bode well to get this a tic or 2 east.  The ULL of Lake Superior make act to kick this east some.

Yup.  I’m looking at other posts trying to figure out what’s wrong with my eyes...lol 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We need the Nam to close off further north so we don't end up with an occluded POS.

Yeah ...for you folks up your way in Maine-like latitudes ...this things been a bit of a race in many guidance'

Not so much definitively obvious per run, but it's a subtlety that's been carried along to 'max' this ...roughly within 50 naut miles of say ... ISP and somewhere near or just east of Boston Light... The axis of biggest sensible impact would be dealt NW of that axis in the usual  ... By the time it trundles up to your GOM as a temporary staller ... it would be weakening.  

However, some of the more punishing guidance, like the NAM blended, actually ends up doing better for you then down this way in interior SNE, because the system is so intense and large by the time its abeam of Boston ...that you end up with this CCB from cryo-hell stuck on high like a you're suckin' on the nozzle of a snow-gun. 

I think there's enough variation that includes veracious enough scenarios that it may not be important to prevent occlusion - ... sides, all big storms have occluded boundaries.  

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