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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I think everyone is on the same page with snow maps.... we just post them as it is the quickest way to get an overall feel for how a model run went with respect to snow lovers.  They could be dead wrong but often they are correct in at least highlighting the areas that are at risk.  Sometimes they over-do it or under-do it but in the end, its a very quick one-frame summary of a model run.   Even a one-frame snapshot of surface low pressure is nice but every storm that tracks in a given location can spread precip/lift/uvvs 100 different ways in terms of intensity and reach outward, so the snow map just gives the very simple run down of where the model would think you should start looking for snows.  You then dig deeper to see what the overall picture looks like.

But meteorology isn't as easy as a one-frame summary, and its definitely a "dumbing down" of the science when it gets relegated to one simple product, so I think most understand the general discontent with those products.  And really, a snow map is essentially a QPF map in a lot of cases. 

Good synopsis too BTW.

NAM clowns were pretty spot on for the interior of NY last storm, but blew biggie sized chunks over NE.  Euro clowns offered 75" for a 10 day period in late Dec into early Jan IMBY a couple months ago. I think dividing by 4 was about right.  They're interesting but...even in the short range they don't pick up on things like sh*t ratios due to UVV/SGZ misalignments and low/mid level thermal issues, as you all just painfully experienced.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

On Saturday? Careful

While you guys were occupied on watching yesterdays system over the past few days, I have been following along on this one, Its on all guidance and has strong ensemble support so there would have to be a total pattern fail for this to just go away on guidance, Nothing locked, If it tracked 300 miles offshore and missed, It still happened, But tracked to far for the end results, I have felt pretty good about this one for a while now, GYX has 70% probs here on weds night into thurs, So i think they feel like i do.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I was just at a wake today actually, And had a crown on the rocks to celebrate Aunt Jeans life, She was 78.

Sorry to hear that Jeff.  78 is too young!   One thing all of us cultures that allow alcohol have in common is drinking to our departed.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Sorry to hear that Jeff.  78 is too young!   One thing all of us cultures that allow alcohol have in common is drinking to our departed.

It was held at one of the seafood restaurants up here, It was her wish for everyone to eat and drink to her life.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Condolences, Jerry. An extraordinarily long life Think of all the progress she saw! Model Ts to space stations. 

Thanks Hoth!   Yes she saw an incredible span of human accomplishments in her liffe.   She wanted to make 100 but it was not to be..

Life is never long enough...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I don't think this one is going to love a ton on guidance due to the block to our north. As tip mentioned, still a train wreck of box cars to our east and north. There's definitely some limits to the movement on this more than normal. 

The midlevels on most of these runs have been pretty sweet for the interior. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

While you guys were occupied on watching yesterdays system over the past few days, I have been following along on this one, Its on all guidance and has strong ensemble support so there would have to be a total pattern fail for this to just go away on guidance, Nothing locked, If it tracked 300 miles offshore and missed, It still happened, But tracked to far for the end results, I have felt pretty good about this one for a while now, GYX has 70% probs here on weds night into thurs, So i think they feel like i do.

I have seen tracks to your inside too, ain't improbable

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I have seen tracks to your inside too, ain't improbable

Sure, I guess we could say that on all storms, Ensemble members always have some that will track inside, I don't think anyone wants to see a full phase 970mb bomb over the mid atlantic because it will be going up PF's fanny.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think this one is going to love a ton on guidance due to the block to our north. As tip mentioned, still a train wreck of box cars to our east and north. There's definitely some limits to the movement on this more than normal. 

The midlevels on most of these runs have been pretty sweet for the interior. 

Love or move?

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro gave me like 15" lol

Don't see why not.....the period until the 14th is fair game, as far as I'm concerned....will start looking at this more, but needed time to get fitted today and lick my forecasting wounds haha

Congrats by the way, Scars were only on the surface, Time to move forward.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think this one is going to love a ton on guidance due to the block to our north. As tip mentioned, still a train wreck of box cars to our east and north. There's definitely some limits to the movement on this more than normal. 

The midlevels on most of these runs have been pretty sweet for the interior. 

I agree, It really only has a certain amount of area to track in.

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