Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Between 18-00z it really starts cranking out the forcing. 

Seen this story a million times....that hardly ever trends SW....ME juggernaut, sne moderate.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seen this story a million times....that hardly ever trends SW....ME juggernaut, sne moderate.

Yeah, neither the GEFS or EPS has a lot of SW spread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The midweek system is lingering much longer IVOF the 50/50 location this run....wonder if that shunts the wknd beast a bit se...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, neither the GEFS or EPS has a lot of SW spread.

I get what Luke was saying about the block favoring an earlier phase, but is just isn't so....models tend to rush that, and there are plenty of instances when it has done so during a neg NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think next wknd will be scaled back...

[WxBlue]

I like where I'm sitting for this one. Would be my greatest single-storm snow total ever.

Of course I'd feel more comfortable if we can bring this inside 24 hours.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The midweek system is lingering much longer IVOF the 50/50 location this run....wonder if that shunts the wknd beast a bit se...

Answer is yes.

Night.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

I like where I'm sitting for this one. Would be my greatest single-storm snow total ever.

Of course I'd feel more comfortable if we can bring this inside 24 hours.

If the euro is right and the east gets the jackpot again.... I'm going to have an epic meltdown!!!

[WxBlue]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think next wknd will be scaled back...

3.2-4.0 inches QPF of snow through next weekend from ORH to PWM. Now that'd be epic for March.

EDIT: That was the 12z run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

If the euro is right and the east gets the jackpot again.... I'm going to have an epic meltdown!!!

Its going to phase later...just watch and wait.

I like being east for this one.......remember, the -PNA won't help matters relative to phase time. It's deconstructive interference with the NAO, and will try to move it along like we saw with the flizzard on Friday.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

3.2-4.0 inches QPF of snow through next weekend from ORH to PWM. Now that'd be epic for March.

Nah, 2001 at GYX THAT would be epic. 7.38" liquid, 58.3" snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

3.2-4.0 inches QPF of snow through next weekend from ORH to PWM. Now that'd be epic for March.

Not this run.

[WxBlue]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not this run.

Yep. Scratch that. That was 12z run.

It's late...

[WxBlue]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Nah, 2001 at GYX THAT would be epic. 7.38" liquid, 58.3" snow.

Y'all have insane winters.

[TalcottWx]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Good news for all

Oh stop, everything is on the table. I'd feel more comfortable in the interior

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Epic storm for main on that run... Eastern ma still gets 1-1.5” qpf... might not be 2’... but that would still be a major storm around here

[TalcottWx]

GEFS is a toaster bath for E MA

[TalcottWx]

I like the EPS. Pretty great storm for all of SNE.

I'm hoping it does a tuck into the GOM.

Don't want to be greedy.

I'm also still weary of this 5h and tucking too early. Would be great for the interior. Not so great IMBY.

[ice1972]

Sorry but are we discussing future threats in a thread for past Friday’s storm?  Confusing.....discuss in model thread until the threat has its own thread....come on guys

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Sorry but are we discussing future threats in a thread for past Friday’s storm?  Confusing.....discuss in model thread until the threat has its own thread....come on guys

Isn't that what we're doing?

[ice1972]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Isn't that what we're doing?

IDK....are we discussing a storm already OTS?

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

IDK....are we discussing a storm already OTS?

We're discussing a storm Wed/Thu i.e. a "moderate-major impact event midweek" as the title says.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Isn't that what we're doing?

He said that cuz Ray was talking about this storm becoming g a 50/50, and Shunting the future threat SE.   

[OceanStWx]

I really don't know what the GFS is doing sometimes. 21z Wed it has BOS at 37, and the Bourgouin ptype is rain. Yet 925 mb is like -2C, and as low as 958 mb is -1C. 

[ineedsnow]

NAM is sweet looking

[OceanStWx]

00z EPS really upped the 6+ probs.

Especially for eastern areas, lots of people on the 70%+ now.

Pit2 now pretty close to a mean of 12" too

[Damage In Tolland]

Big hit from NYC north and east. Thankfully the west trend stopped 

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I really don't know what the GFS is doing sometimes. 21z Wed it has BOS at 37, and the Bourgouin ptype is rain. Yet 925 mb is like -2C, and as low as 958 mb is -1C. 

That's classic GFS. People might be scared to hit the warm bias at the sfc on that model after last Friday, but it is still there. It didn't magically disappear. 

[Damage In Tolland]

WSW up already for Wednesday. That’s early. She coming hard I guess

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's classic GFS. People might be scared to hit the warm bias at the sfc on that model after last Friday, but it is still there. It didn't magically disappear. 

You just don't get this casual mixed layer when you're ripping heavy precip.

Like if that really is a result of a seasonality bias, where it's spring so the model is forced to mix out, maybe turn that off or down?