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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
Just now, DomNH said:

E16, please. Lot of really amped members there. 

Quite a few of those are much too far west for even here...congrats SYR on like 9 of the 20 looking at the snow maps.

Certainly would say toss that run as the western goal-post if the GGEM is the eastern goal-post with a full whiff.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I may the only one who felt like they got a KU without snow.

Feel the same. And hopefully my "clients" (coworkers and friends) do too and won't Monday morning QB my busted assurances that it could snow despite warm surface temps.

That was up there with some direct tropical hits we've had in SNE, and that definitely mitigated the otherwise missed epicosity.

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

The Danbury area has seen bad luck for the past 15 years. I really hope your area jackpots this time, even if it means taint for us coasties.

I need something higher than 14 inches, that is the highest I have seen over the last 4 winters since I moved up from Delaware...

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The accumulation map goes to hr 84

Man where do you find this stuff, haha.  I didn't know that RDS thing went out 84 hours from Environment Canada.

It is what I have in my head for a track, near the Cape elbow given the blend of everything.  And this would make the forum as a whole happy.

epaKGl6.jpg

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Quite a few of those are much too far west for even here...congrats SYR on like 9 of the 20 looking at the snow maps.

Certainly would say toss that run as the western goal-post if the GGEM is the eastern goal-post with a full whiff.

Reminds me of the run it had last week that had the GEFS clustering around Poughkeepsie. Overdone IMO.

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Man where do you find this stuff, haha.  I didn't know that RDS thing went out 84 hours from Environment Canada.

It is what I have in my head for a track, near the Cape elbow given the blend of everything.  And this would make the forum as a whole happy.

epaKGl6.jpg

No, most here like the low to remain off shore, not even graze the Cape elbow.  The low can be inside the benchmark a little but not scrapping the cape.  Off shore is paramount.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Greg said:

No, most here like the low to remain off shore, not even graze the Cape elbow.  The low can be inside the benchmark a little but not scrapping the cape.  Off shore is paramount.

If you are obsessed with a jackpot being in eastern Mass, then sure.  But if you want to spread out a nice 6"+ event for most of New England, the elbow track does work (probably jacks NYC to LCI/IZG with that track...but it matters more about the trajectory probably than where it crosses the Cape.  If its going ENE that's a different outcome than something passing the elbow on a NNE direction.

 

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Haha yeah you guys got destroyed.  Still flabbergasted by that event.  If 48 hours out someone said I would get more snow (a whole two inches) than ORH Cnty they would've been laughed off the forum, lol.

Anyway, I think you blend the GFS and EURO as always and go from there.  I am always highly skeptical of coastal storms but the upper level trough looks good to me, so a bit more optimistic than usual especially if the block relaxes just a little.  

I just want a nice 6" event to cover up the bare spots that have opened up in parts of the yard.  

F that!  I’m usually in the camp of any snow is good snow but I want more this time!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a lot of amped members. It worries me a bit 

Honestly the GEFS are too amped.  For whatever reason the GFS has been the NW model recent, instead of the "just where we like it far SE" model.  Not sure why they are but as we usually say, ride the EPS mean.  Maybe its my location skewing my thoughts but I'd worry more about a late-bloomer that swings a bit too far NE before going to town rather than rain. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Just reading this. But I'm looking at several EPS members that track over portions of SE NE.

The Op Euro track looked like it should have been further west when you looked at 500, Especially early on.  It wasn’t necessarily the the track after 84 that looked odd it was 72-84

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Honestly the GEFS are too amped.  For whatever reason the GFS has been the NW model recent, instead of the "just where we like it far SE" model.  Not sure why they are but as we usually say, ride the EPS mean.  Maybe its my location skewing my thoughts but I'd worry more about a late-bloomer that swings a bit too far NE before going to town rather than rain. 

Streakiness due to pattern changes.  The CMC was on fire for December into early January and has since been terrible.  Last winter the NAM was probably the best model through 1/15 and was awful after that.  

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Op Euro track looked like it should have been further west when you looked at 500, Especially early on.  It wasn’t necessarily the the track after 84 that looked odd it was 72-84

I agree, just looked at it. Not sure I'm feeling great about this one. Need some more modeling.

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