Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The Danbury area has seen bad luck for the past 15 years. I really hope your area jackpots this time, even if it means taint for us coasties.

Of course I want to extract max potential when possible but I joke about derserving it....only cape cod does. I like the look though for west zones, but I’m not trying to steal the snow from the east. Unfortunately, big systems rarely make everyone happy. 

[weathafella]

We should know pretty definitively in tomorrow’s 12z suite.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably. Even if it "wins" in a 70/30 compromise, that's going to crush probably 80-90% of SNE. 

I don't need jackpots, just a really good storm. I missed the jackpot last March by 200-300 miles but I still got 14 inches of man snow...good enough for me. 

I can’t take anymore rain. I just can’t 

[Typhoon Tip]

I didn't think the run was enough different than the 12z to justify much reaction at all, actually ... not sure what petty details we're focused upon to justify are neurotic nit picking good god. There's enough other guidances with different signals... just because one is bad relative to what is ideal, the reaction is weird.  sorry - it just is

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I can’t take anymore rain. I just can’t 

I’ll bet against you raining. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I can’t take anymore rain. I just can’t 

 Lol melting on a GFS run, lol

[weathafella]

NOGAPS runs the low overland close to ORH.

[HoarfrostHubb]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I may the only one who felt like they got a KU without snow.

That was one incredible system near the coast.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Haha yeah you guys got destroyed.  Still flabbergasted by that event.  If 48 hours out someone said I would get more snow (a whole two inches) than ORH Cnty they would've been laughed off the forum, lol.

Anyway, I think you blend the GFS and EURO as always and go from there.  I am always highly skeptical of coastal storms but the upper level trough looks good to me, so a bit more optimistic than usual especially if the block relaxes just a little.  

I just want a nice 6" event to cover up the bare spots that have opened up in parts of the yard.  

Tim Kelley was saying this morning that you guys might be getting a sneaky event

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 Lol melting on a GFS run, lol

Esp one that doesn't really come that close to giving him rain which is what he is paranoid about 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I didn't think the run was enough different than the 12z to justify much reaction at all, actually ... not sure what petty details we're focused upon to justify are neurotic nit picking good god. There's enough other guidances with different signals... just because one is bad relative to what is ideal, the reaction is weird.  sorry - it just is

I went back several pages and do not see the pyschoanlysis you speak of. Besides Ray and I disagreeing on the crappy icon output in a model thread....what else is “good God” worthy? DIT melting over gfs op, ok I’ll give you that.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Esp one that doesn't really come that close to giving him rain which is what he is paranoid about 

Afternoon IPAs ftl

[HoarfrostHubb]

No “Oh boy oh boy oh boy?”

[ORH_wxman]

18z ggem came back...not all the way but not a whiff anymore. Hits SE MA pretty hard. 

[CoastalWx]

BTV WRF reminds me of the NAM. Closer in, but thermals seem to support wet snow even near the coast.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z ggem came back...not all the way but not a whiff anymore. Hits SE MA pretty hard. 

They have a 18Z CMC?  

[Chrisrotary12]

5 hours ago, dendrite said:

No one here deserves snow. After the last 2 decades you all deserve 5 straight years of rain followed by windex events. 

When was the last time we had a good windex event?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BTV WRF reminds me of the NAM. Closer in, but thermals seem to support wet snow even near the coast.

Yup. The NAM is a paste job just off the canal. Most people would like that solution. 

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I can’t take anymore rain. I just can’t 

No way you rain dude.  No way. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably. Even if it "wins" in a 70/30 compromise, that's going to crush probably 80-90% of SNE. 

I don't need jackpots, just a really good storm. I missed the jackpot last March by 200-300 miles but I still got 14 inches of man snow...good enough for me. 

Agree.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup. The NAM is a paste job just off the canal. Most people would like that solution. 

In a perfect world, that’s the solution + cold enough for Jimmy to get in on it. Just spread the love baby. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

When was the last time we had a good windex event?

That's his point.

[dryslot]

39 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

They're not helping the mid-Coast either (at least per the TT maps).

I wouldn't sweat the GFS right now, But then again some say the Euro isn't what it once was.....................

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

They have a 18Z CMC?  

GDPS Jerry,

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?run=18&map=na&mod=gemreg&lang=en

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably. Even if it "wins" in a 70/30 compromise, that's going to crush probably 80-90% of SNE. 

I don't need jackpots, just a really good storm. I missed the jackpot last March by 200-300 miles but I still got 14 inches of man snow...good enough for me. 

Exactly, that's why I was saying just give me 6".  (Someone can have a field day with that one)... Just spread the wealth around and I think anyone here would be happy with a 6" snowfall clinging to everything.

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Exactly, that's why I was saying just give me 6".  (Someone can have a field day with that one)... Just spread the wealth around and I think anyone here would be happy with a 6" snowfall clinging to everything.

Some were not a 12z, But that may change if they start getting close to tainting...............

[Chrisrotary12]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's his point.

No I understood his point.  I find snow squalls fascinating from a meteorological stand point.  I just can remember the last good one.

[powderfreak]

GEFS individuals for 18z. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

No I understood his point.  I find snow squalls fascinating from a meteorological stand point.  I just can remember the last good one.

Right... we are a due for a winter full of cutters and fraud Windex....aka no snow

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I wouldn't sweat the GFS right now, But then again some say the Euro isn't what it once was.....................

GDPS Jerry,

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?run=18&map=na&mod=gemreg&lang=en

Thanks Jeff!  I’ll have to figure out how to get beyond 48 hours loaded on my phone.

[DomNH]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

GEFS individuals for 18z. 

E16, please. Lot of really amped members there.