Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Damage In Tolland]

I don’t recall seeing any EPS tucked in like that abomination. Safe to toss 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t recall seeing any EPS tucked in like that abomination. Safe to toss 

There were EPS members that went over eastern Mass.  

Just another model run.  Gave you more snow than the Euro, so yeah probably wrong .

Blend them is the best way to go right now as always.  NAM was pretty jacked at 18z too.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ll see what the 18z gefs show but for comparions sake, the 12z run was very tightly clustered along the delmarva then it begins to spread as it moves just off the NJ coast. The frame before this practically had every member inside the smallest contour:

You are salivating for this one.

[ineedsnow]

A few inland members on the 18z GEFS

[ineedsnow]

Mean is just off the cape then into the gulf of maine

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You are salivating for this one.

Lots of snow stealing to be done by all, lol.

The last system left everyone with blue balls it seems.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Lots of snow stealing to be done by all, lol.

The last system left everyone with blue balls it seems.

I may the only one who felt like they got a KU without snow.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

A few inland members on the 18z GEFS

Is the mean slightly east or west of 12z?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t recall seeing any EPS tucked in like that abomination. Safe to toss 

4,10,12,16,25,31,34,35,36,39,40,44,45,46,48,50

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ll see what the 18z gefs show but for comparions sake, the 12z run was very tightly clustered along the delmarva then it begins to spread as it moves just off the NJ coast. The frame before this practically had every member inside the smallest contour:

The Danbury area has seen bad luck for the past 15 years. I really hope your area jackpots this time, even if it means taint for us coasties.

[CoastalWx]

Drooling.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I may the only one who felt like they got a KU without snow.

Haha yeah you guys got destroyed.  Still flabbergasted by that event.  If 48 hours out someone said I would get more snow (a whole two inches) than ORH Cnty they would've been laughed off the forum, lol.

Anyway, I think you blend the GFS and EURO as always and go from there.  I am always highly skeptical of coastal storms but the upper level trough looks good to me, so a bit more optimistic than usual especially if the block relaxes just a little.  

I just want a nice 6" event to cover up the bare spots that have opened up in parts of the yard.  

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Those tucked in lows are not helping you either on the GFS runs.

They're not helping the mid-Coast either (at least per the TT maps).

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I may the only one who felt like they got a KU without snow.

That's how I felt....I think that's the most tremendous coastal I have ever seen.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's how I felt....I think that's the most tremendous coastal I have ever seen.

There is something awesome about a good coastal.

Anyways, a compromise as PF said would be nice for many.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

now 18z gefs getting dangerously too close for comfort lol:

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

A compromise would def work for most... euro seems like that compromise right now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You are salivating for this one.

Like a starving Leopard stalking his prey. 

[Damage In Tolland]

If we wake up and this has turned into a rainer . I’m leaving weather. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

now 18z gefs getting dangerously too close for comfort lol:

Too many western leaners.

[weathafella]

Even with the tucked GFS that’s a riteous front ender.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Too many western leaners.

Sometimes the GEFS act goofy and usually follow the op

Not worried unless the other models look like the GEFS

GEFS still show 3-6 for NYC and a lot more for interior areas

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Too many western leaners.

It’s fine though. The move is NE from there not like it can cut into the river..with blocking, it can only go so far left, i think....and pray.

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I may the only one who felt like they got a KU without snow.

It's hard to explain to people west of 395 north of 84 just how powerful this storm was. My buddy is a facility manager of a converted mill multiuser facility. He had 300 lb bundles of new roofing material blown into the street below. 

[Sn0waddict]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Too many western leaners.

Would be worried if the euro wasn’t so far East. Thinking a compromise between the two could both be rational and work for the most of us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If we wake up and this has turned into a rainer . I’m leaving weather. 

GFS will cave imo.

[wxeyeNH]

Im very happy with the GFS.  Pulled my hair out with the last system wondering if it would get up here.  Very gun shy with this one kept thinking this would do something somewhat similar, approach and then a sharp  ENE with another miss.  Tuck is very good for me. Track near Boston is best.  Want a really juicy system.  Give me a tuck with this one and then back to a 970 something coming up and going ENE next week for SNE.  

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If we wake up and this has turned into a rainer . I’m leaving weather. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m skeptical of the gfs thermals anyway. 

The NAM takes a comparable track and is much colder. 

Could be right.... but I’d bet not

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS will cave imo.

Probably. Even if it "wins" in a 70/30 compromise, that's going to crush probably 80-90% of SNE. 

I don't need jackpots, just a really good storm. I missed the jackpot last March by 200-300 miles but I still got 14 inches of man snow...good enough for me.