Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[BRSno]

Yeah, would like to toss that GFS run. They've all been fairly west. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is a NJ to Berks and ALbany special.

You gotta wonder ... if it's low level warm biases has the feed-back into its processing of negating BL resistance... the whole structure than ends up there for big torque phenomenon like negetive tilted waves...

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, BRSno said:

Yeah, would like to toss that GFS run. They've all been fairly west. 

Certainly an option. The pattern supports tucky.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That is a toaster here. So much warmer than all the other models 

Those tucked in lows are not helping you either on the GFS runs.

[DomNH]

I'd hit the GFS.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Certainly an option. The pattern supports tucky.

A euro solution is basically middle ground between the amped gfs and whiff Canadian 

[J Paul Gordon]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is a NJ to Berks and ALbany special.

Sounds kinda like Friday redux minus the massive flooding

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Those tucked in lows are not helping you either on the GFS runs.

Nope... I’ll ride the euro though... maybe it caves tonight.. who knows

[CoastalWx]

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

Sounds kinda like Friday redux minus the massive flooding

Nah snow would extend further east for sure. I was just referencing the max potential.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Elephant farts?  

Not this time. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Not this time. 

I was gonna say...at least that doesn’t seem to be a caution flag for this.  There will be wobbles and waffles for a bit longer, but I don’t think we get a giant influx of putrid air

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not this time. 

Stench is there.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Stench is there.

Or maybe climo, nothing similar at all

[DomNH]

7 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I'd hit the GFS.

Until I saw how much of a torch it was at 925. Not sure I'm buying rain to Cheshire County with such an improved airmass and cold temps aloft. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Or maybe climo, nothing similar at all

Nah, the airmass is eh.

[EastonSN+]

Icon looks like the GFS. Tucked.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah, the airmass is eh.

When you show me a 5H heading due south after running into brick wall infusing marine air that's elephant.  A L.P. tucking is a climo situation, anyone away from the coast scores.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

When you show me a 5H heading due south after running into brick wall infusing marine air that's elephant.  A L.P. tucking is a climo situation, anyone away from the coast scores.

No elephant, just stench of Ray's farts at a AMX conference. It's serviceable. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Icon looks like the GFS. Tucked.

It was OTS last run.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was OTS last run.

Now you know why it's scores suck.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was OTS last run.

It was not. Just didnt phase but it tracked inside then along the BM. Same with this run, no phase either. Kinda weak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It was not. Just didnt phase but it tracked along the BM. Same with this run.

Who cares,  the sensible relevance was OTS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Certainly an option. The pattern supports tucky.

There is a limit.

I don't buy the Logan11 jacks....ORH hills to Jerks, ok.

[dryslot]

It sucks, That's all you need to know.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who cares,  the sensible relevance was OTS.

You cared enough to comment on it and I cared enough to attempt to correct...which leads to a circle jerk of blanks over chubby porn. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You cared enough to comment on it and I cared enough to attempt to correct...which leads to a circle jerk of blanks over chubby porn. 

 

All I meant was it didn't show much of a storm. I didn't look at it and don't care where it tracks. 

[Sn0waddict]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Icon looks like the GFS. Tucked.

For whatever reason the ICON is always paltry with qpf. I feel like 6 inches on the ICON is equivalent to a foot in reality. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It sucks, That's all you need to know.

Exactly.

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I'd hit the GFS.

Good consistency.  Nice run.

Of course you always have to lean east in coastal storms after the past 5 years, lol.

I do like that NJ to Dendrite axis in this one so far.  Draw a line between those two points and take a few shots if you live in that zone.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We’ll see what the 18z gefs show but for comparions sake, the 12z run was very tightly clustered along the delmarva then it begins to spread as it moves just off the NJ coast. The frame before this practically had every member inside the smallest contour: