Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[ineedsnow]

18Z NAM with a big hit

[Thunderblizzard]

That's a really nice look at the end of the NAM.

[CoastalWx]

Nasty NAM.

[ineedsnow]

1ft plus on the nam here

[Johnno]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

1ft plus on the nam here

We take

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

NAM is great for all of I-95 philly to boston with 8-12” for all and plenty cold enough. I really dig this setup, high confidence for at least a SECS. 

[CoastalWx]

Not far from the GFS look, yet look how the low levels are cooler...probably more realistic.

[CoastalWx]

It's also the NAM at hr 84.

[Typhoon Tip]

The National Weather Service has issued a severe thundersnowstorm warning for .... everyone, in effect from 8 am Wednesday through 12 am Thursday.

[Typhoon Tip]

anyway... this is our 24" NAM run ... we knew it had to come down the pipe line.

Heh, supposin' this happens for a moment, we're talking thundersnow there... That entire construct would literally rip the troposphere with some of the most intense UVM through the growth region of the sounding as can physically happen - 

but you know...been there done that with this model.  If the Euro comes in like this tonight...okay. 

[wxsniss]

Nam is actually close to Gfs... suggests 1) gfs thermals are way off, and 2) cmc is on its own far east

[dryslot]

GEM was tossed at 12z

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The NAM is an absolute nuke... 12+ down already for PVD Boston ORH at 84... much more to come.

Like Tip mentioned, if it ran longer that’s prob the run that drops 2’+

[Ginx snewx]

Camp Ginx issues a be careful be very careful of day 4 progs

[wkd]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's also the NAM at hr 84.

People keep mocking the NAM but at least for NJ it's been pretty right on the last couple of winters.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, wkd said:

People keep mocking the NAM but at least for NJ it's been pretty right on the last couple of winters.

Mm... if you wanna be part of the cool clique, you gotta diss

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually ... i have a dull memory of reading the NAM may actually be yanked soon ? 

not sure if I'm imagining that -

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually ... i have a dull memory of reading the NAM may actually be yanked soon ? 

not sure if I'm imagining that -

Suppose to be.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... if you wanna be part of the cool clique, you gotta diss

It has uses in big EC snowstorms. Jan 16 and Mar 17 come to mind when it picked up on the nw scenarios. But you still can’t take any run verbatim because Jan 16 it still showed me getting 20-30” on a couple runs, I ended up with 6”. Same with Jan 15. I tend to look at the h5 maps but bypass qpf and clown maps for anything other than eye candy.

Your thoughts?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

36 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The NAM is an absolute nuke... 12+ down already for PVD Boston ORH at 84... much more to come.

Like Tip mentioned, if it ran longer that’s prob the run that drops 2’+

It would deliver for the east along the CF while the west says hello to the pivoting deform band(s). A win-win. If only we could magically lock it in....

[Buddy1987]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's also the NAM at hr 84.

It is also NAM thermals vs GFS thermals. I’d take it face value any day over the GFS. That is a great sign imo that it’s cooler with the column. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

And the gfs is tucked in, what a nuke in the early going.

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And the gfs is tucked in, what a nuke in the early going.

HR 78&81 are a crush job for the state man phew! 

[CoastalWx]

GFS is a NJ to Berks and ALbany special.

[dryslot]

Nuked!

[CoastalWx]

Probably extend that into wrn CT too. Further east near Kev and ORH get snow too, but DGZ dryslots. Verbatim anyways.

[NorEastermass128]

I don’t like this new pattern of the GFS being the most amped of all models. 

[JBinStoughton]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

I don’t like this new pattern of the GFS being the most amped of all models. 

Wasn’t that always the NAM’s job?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That is a toaster here. So much warmer than all the other models 

[HoarfrostHubb]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Camp Ginx issues a be careful be very careful of day 4 progs

Elephant farts?