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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 3/7/2018 at 8:19 PM, eyewall said:

The new map here shows the cut back. This one stings for sure, especially being late in the season.

 

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Ha I love your passion with the emotion.

I love getting riled up on the NW model runs but always expected it east.  We were banking on mid-level banding the whole time.  

Youve been up here long enough to know how this works.  We'll end up with some upslope surprise one of these nights from this thing.  Saturday night looks pretty good. 

Fun past two systems to track for sure.  Biggest busts will be those 18-24" forecasts in the Berkshires, Litchfield and SVT.  Even yesterday's EURO was too amped up.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted
  On 3/7/2018 at 8:27 PM, powderfreak said:

Ha I love your passion with the emotion.

I love getting riled up on the NW model runs but always expected it east.  We were banking on mid-level banding the whole time.  

Youve been up here long enough to know how this works.  We'll end up with some upslope surprise one of these nights from this thing.  Saturday night looks pretty good. 

Fun past two systems to track for sure.  

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Yeah at least the skiing will be good that is true.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
  On 3/7/2018 at 8:28 PM, dendrite said:

The drift depends on the winds below the beam, fall rates, and height below he beam. But I mostly meant that I’m not directly under the band in that image.

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Probably because I'm so far away from both local radars that I think that. My hood is just about the worst in the local area for radar coverage.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 3/7/2018 at 8:27 PM, kdxken said:

 What is it look like for timing up there my daughter is going to be returning from Plymouth State at around 6 PM ? I don't want Her to get caught in a cluster on 93 .

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It was sticking to the road already from exit 18-19 a half hour ago. It’ll be slick around then, but nothing too heavy. I’m sure they’ll be salting the daylights out of the highway.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/7/2018 at 8:25 PM, kdxken said:

 Snowing pretty good in Southborough . What do you think for your area ? I'm hoping Sherborn gets more rain than here . 

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I'm guessing southborough and sherborn will be pretty similar....southborough in general has a little extra elevation, so maybe that will goose their totals a little higher....but both spots should get croaked pretty hard. I'm guessing 8-14" is a good forecast for both...prob more like 10-15 for areas above 300 feet? Can't rule out a higher lolli as well in any big bands.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

GYX snow estimate has backed off 4" since this morning, still 14" for "most likely", which would be great.  I just hope it doesn't end like Feb 15 last year (a very different and much smaller system.)  About 18 hours before 1st flakes, Farmington's "most likely" for that one was 17" with 10% chance of 21.  They got a bit over 5".  I'll guess we end up at the 90% chance - 10".  Other than Feb 2010, I've never been disappointed by double-digit snow.

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WthrJunkyME

WthrJunkyME

Posted
Posted
  On 3/7/2018 at 8:56 PM, tamarack said:

GYX snow estimate has backed off 4" since this morning, still 14" for "most likely", which would be great.  I just hope it doesn't end like Feb 15 last year (a very different and much smaller system.)  About 18 hours before 1st flakes, Farmington's "most likely" for that one was 17" with 10% chance of 21.  They got a bit over 5".  I'll guess we end up at the 90% chance - 10".  Other than Feb 2010, I've never been disappointed by double-digit snow.

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In all honesty, I’ll be disappointed with 10”.  I admit it.

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