Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It has been 10-20" for like 5 days now. I never understood the higher forecasts.

 

One met had a vision at GYX i guess........lol

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

One met had a vision at GYX i guess........lol

Chris?

[WxBlue]

It's a bit early to be calling bust for NH and ME... especially in coastal areas. HRRR is actually looking decent for at least 10" here to PWM. I know it's not 20" exciting, but it's right on point with most models coming into the event.

[tunafish]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's what happens when the bar starts out high out of the gate.

 

Agreed.  I try not to get my hopes up in any event, and the seasoned hobbyists (such as yourself) are always level headed which helps with that, but I was admittedly rattled by the latest HRRRs.  

[WxBlue]

Just now, tunafish said:

Agreed.  I try not to get my hopes up in any event, and the seasoned hobbyists (such as yourself) are always level headed which helps with that, but I was admittedly rattled by the latest HRRRs.  

That's understandable after seeing 18-24" hype runs from NAM, but I always thought it was a bit over the board. 

Also, remember it's still snowing over us past the end of HRRR.

[dryslot]

Just now, tunafish said:

Agreed.  I try not to get my hopes up in any event, and the seasoned hobbyists (such as yourself) are always level headed which helps with that, but I was admittedly rattled by the latest HRRRs.  

I actually find the HRRR to be inconsistent from run to run on most storms, So i don't hold it to a higher level as others on here.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

I actually find the HRRR to be inconsistent from run to run on most storms, So i don't hold it to a higher level as others on here.

It's based on radar, isn't it?

Synoptic ain't its thing.

[dryslot]

Just now, WxBlue said:

That's understandable after seeing 18-24" hype runs from NAM, but I always thought it was a bit over the board. 

Also, remember it's still snowing over us past the end of HRRR.

There's the first problem, The Nam, I don't but it much either, But the Euro had been pretty steady thru out it last several runs, The GFS finally at 12z caught up qpf wise even though the thermals are garbage but you can look past that up here anyways

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Even before MPM came up here, We don't usually jack any storm, I certainly don't remember jacking any, That's not what i'm about anyways.

Considering that the death band in Nemo was about 200 miles to your south, your area did pretty well in that one - almost 3X what we had here.  Our nearest thing to a jack was Feb 2009 - right in the group reporting 24-27".

Abundant reports of TSN in the area around PHL, so the LP itself must really be cranking up.  Maybe so much that it scoots east too soon?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

There's the first problem, The Nam, I don't but it much either, But the Euro had been pretty steady thru out it last several runs, The GFS finally at 12z caught up qpf wise even though the thermals are garbage but you can look past that up here anyways

The NAM is good for one thing and one thing only during the winter - miller As.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It's based on radar, isn't it?

Synoptic ain't its thing.

I'm sure it is, But its an extrapolation of time going forward past current.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

I'm sure it is, But its an extrapolation of time going forward past current.

Well yeah lol. I'm saying, a model based on radar assimilation for a short period of time in a limited geographic area isn't exactly going to nail down h5.

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

The NAM is good for one thing and one thing only during the winter - miller As.

Which basically, This one kind of is, And it was terrible with it in my eyes, It has more waffles then IHOP.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Which basically, This one kind of is, And it was terrible with it in my eyes, It has more waffles then IHOP.

I don't think it was a miller A in the context that the northern stream was of utmost importance in determining the final outcome.

IHOP is terribly delicious.

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Well yeah lol. I'm saying, a model based on radar assimilation for a short period of time in a limited geographic area isn't exactly going to nail down h5.

I find it either over/under gives radar estimates up here, Nothing to do with what a model run had @ H5

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I don't think it was a miller A in the context that the northern stream was of utmost importance in determining the final outcome.

Yes. Agree.

[weatherwiz]

This is sexy

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I don't think it was a miller A in the context that the northern stream was of utmost importance in determining the final outcome.

Typically, You need both streams, But generally, The southern s/w originates out of the gulf of mexico, This one didn't totally fit that bill.

[WxBlue]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There's the first problem, The Nam, I don't but it much either, But the Euro had been pretty steady thru out it last several runs, The GFS finally at 12z caught up qpf wise even though the thermals are garbage but you can look past that up here anyways

Agree the problem was trusting the NAM, but like you said, it's interesting that the Euro is consistently showing beefy totals. We'll have to see what happen, but my expectation is 12-18" here. I'd be happy if we break the 20" mark.

[dryslot]

Just now, WxBlue said:

Agree the problem was trusting the NAM, but like you said, it's interesting that the Euro is consistently showing beefy totals. We'll have to see what happen, but my expectation is 12-18" here. I'd be happy if we break the 20" mark.

Your area over to southern maine has been pretty consistent across the guidance for jack areas.

[ursa99]

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10976&y=3147&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=16&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Here it comes...

[TalcottWx]

New HRRR is flipping BOS around 5-6pm. Earlier today it was 10pm-11pm.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think all of Southern New England sees at least 3" of snow with the exception being Nantucket

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Typically, You need both streams, But generally, The southern s/w originates out of the gulf of mexico, This one didn't totally fit that bill.

Exactly - when the NAM schools the globals is when there is a significant convective component from the deep south pumping heights on the east coast.

[Berlin1926]

Living in Connecticut gives me whiplash.

[dryslot]

NW zones getting a trim after the 12z runs today.................

 

[#NoPoles]

I don't think we can completely disregard the crap thermal profile. My Upton friend just texted saying it is raining. So we do have a marginal airmass and crap surface temps. I guess you could get burnt counting on dynamic cooling. Last storm is a great example.

[TalcottWx]

Just now, #NoPoles said:

I don't think we can completely disregard the crap thermal profile. My Upton friend just texted saying it is raining. So we do have a marginal airmass and crap surface temps. I guess you could get burnt counting on dynamic cooling. Last storm is a great example.

No way Jose

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, #NoPoles said:

I don't think we can completely disregard the crap thermal profile. My Upton friend just texted saying it is raining. So we do have a marginal airmass and crap surface temps. I guess you could get burnt counting on dynamic cooling. Last storm is a great example.

It's also been snowing from the onset in many area this time, so better antecedent.

Certainly still a concern southeast, though.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

No way Jose

HRRR may be a bit early. It may be snowing but at 34F for awhile on the water. I would temper acc right at the water.