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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Okay... so, not looking so good for that phasing potential as was discussed/demoed yesterday...

It's okay ...we are still lining up for a moderate impact event.  Just wanna add something to that 'moderate' characterization.  What is moderate to one is certainly major to another, and less to some.  Certainly, moderate in the spirit of this site's contributing base is probably major out side it in the to and fro of civility.  ha.  But, we used to quantify light as < than 6" ...moderate as 6 to 10" and anything > 10" ... major.  That's what we used to go by back in the 1990s and I was raised as a Met on - not sure what others think. In recent decades it seems easier to get major output, interestingly.  Anyway... that's sort of what I have in mind with moderate.  Somewhere's 6 to 10" ...

I still feel that's a safe...above median confidence at this time. This system is negatively tilted in a conditionally isothermal sounding that's tending colder via dynamic conduction so forth, and seeing as the best wave mechanics are pass N about 2 deg E of Logan...that really places the entire region under the gun for frontogenic banding for a time or two... possibly concentric due to g-wave and so forth.  Plus ...as others have noted, the slow movement can recoup per duration.  Moderate snow for 12 to 15 solid hours in a steadily cooling column ...34 -- 29 per the course, is probably going to make for a solid plowable event one way or the other...which can happen at less than 6", granted, but just sensing that all would not be lost there.

What this system lacks in phase (btw) that next one for the 12-14th of the month, definitely makes up for in this run...Full, subsume n-stream take over and slow moving cut off goes quintessentially under LI... But that's the next thread...

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dendrite

dendrite

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Is he getting down sloped off the presidentials?

Pretty much. I get it too, but that area around 1P1 is a relative snow hole synoptically. Of course deform bands and SWFEs we do well in. It’s just the deep low/mid level downsloping that is the big killer. Usually our winds don’t really ramp up until CAA sets in and that’s when we start drying out. But if we’re managing to mix down 25kt winds out of the NE with precip I always start seeing my RH nosedive.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty much. I get it too, but that area around 1P1 is a relative snow hole synoptically. Of course deform bands and SWFEs we do well in. It’s just the deep low/mid level downsloping that is the big killer. Usually our winds don’t really ramp up until CAA sets in and that’s when we start drying out. But if we’re managing to mix down 25kt winds out of the NE with precip I always start seeing my RH nosedive.

Great info.  Maybe that is why I always seem to get stuck with 10-12" totals even in the big slow moving systems.  I know the Whites hurt me but didn't know if the GFS overdoes it.  

Edit:  Would I actually do better with weaker SWFE systems than the deep coastals?

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dendrite

dendrite

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Great info.  Maybe that is why I always seem to get stuck with 10-12" totals even in the big slow moving systems.  I know the Whites hurt me but didn't know if the GFS overdoes it.  

I do think it’s a little overdone...kinda like the BTV WRF. Your elevation does help you a bit too, but the Whites and Greens are just at such a larger scale than random hills to the south. Then you have someone like jspin which is almost below sea level for VT standards that gets piled on with snow because of his proximity to the upslope of the Greens. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I do think it’s a little overdone...kinda like the BTV WRF. Your elevation does help you a bit too, but the Whites and Greens are just at such a larger scale than random hills to the south. Then you have someone like jspin which is almost below sea level for VT standards that gets piled on with snow because of his proximity to the upslope of the Greens. 

lol that's a good way to put it... but he gets the QPF.  Its funny when you look at CoCoRAHS annual precipitation totals and there are spots like 1,800ft or 1,600ft with 55-60" annual and then there's J.Spin at 495ft running right along with them.  I'm not far from him and he's usually got me by like 5-9" in annual water.  All those extra 0.1-0.5" add up.  He literally runs similar to like 1,500ft base of Mansfield for precipitation despite being at 500ft... though my office gets a bit more snow just because of the elevational events or CAA while going rain to snow.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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18 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Great info.  Maybe that is why I always seem to get stuck with 10-12" totals even in the big slow moving systems.  I know the Whites hurt me but didn't know if the GFS overdoes it.  

Edit:  Would I actually do better with weaker SWFE systems than the deep coastals?

Yes. SWFE are where it's at for you.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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38 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Great info.  Maybe that is why I always seem to get stuck with 10-12" totals even in the big slow moving systems.  I know the Whites hurt me but didn't know if the GFS overdoes it.  

Edit:  Would I actually do better with weaker SWFE systems than the deep coastals?

Relatively speaking?  I mean a deep coastal still probably drops more snow than a weak SWFE for you, but relative to your surroundings and other areas of New England, the SWFE is your bread and butter probably.

Like a deep coastal that gives you 10" is better than a weak SWFE that gives you 6".... but if everyone else is getting 12-18" in the deep coastal while you jackpot with the 6 in the weak SWFE, that SWFE is more satisfying, ha.

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dryslot

dryslot

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45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty much. I get it too, but that area around 1P1 is a relative snow hole synoptically. Of course deform bands and SWFEs we do well in. It’s just the deep low/mid level downsloping that is the big killer. Usually our winds don’t really ramp up until CAA sets in and that’s when we start drying out. But if we’re managing to mix down 25kt winds out of the NE with precip I always start seeing my RH nosedive.

Here, Its anything out of the NW is a down slope dandy, Most of the time it don't matter as its the backside of a departed systems but a low that tracks thru Northern Maine is a sunny day here.

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weathafella

weathafella

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Relatively speaking?  I mean a deep coastal still probably drops more snow than a weak SWFE for you, but relative to your surroundings and other areas of New England, the SWFE is your bread and butter probably.

I think however a coastal’s qpf gets lost so much d/t the shadowing by the mountains to the east and NE if I were Gene I’d hope for SWFEs all day every day.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think however a coastal’s qpf gets lost so much d/t the shadowing by the mountains to the east and NE if I were Gene I’d hope for SWFEs all day every day.

Yeah, I think someone's overall "impression" though is judged a by comparing their area to other areas around them.  Like a deep coastal that gives him 10" is better than a weak SWFE that gives him 6".... but if everyone else is getting 14-18" in the deep coastal you are going to hate that regardless of the snowfall amount.  Unfortunately that's how it goes in this hobby, ha.  You can get a good storm but if everyone 10-20 miles in every direction from you is getting more, it's still a sour taste for some.

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