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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree... I can't criticize, I obviously respect the profession, they're solid in an extremely tough job and this was a hard forecast. That said, I don't think your area is in question.

Yes, I do not feel as though a display of respect and criticism are mutually exclusive. They have actually fared well this season, and no professional is going to operate flawlessly within a given field, but I do not view this system as one of their better efforts thus far.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS bumped up the QPF again. LOL at temps in the U30s tonight in central MA. :lol:

Thats like 2 feet in interior E MA if the qpf is right (and it's mostly snow as it probably will be outside of 128)....but I don't trust the GFS QPF either with the thermals...it might be enhancing it.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thats like 2 feet in interior E MA if the qpf is right (and it's mostly snow as it probably will be outside of 128)....but I don't trust the GFS QPF either with the thermals...it might be enhancing it.

That's what I thought too. I think that amount is overdoing it. Nothing really has that.

 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thats like 2 feet in interior E MA if the qpf is right (and it's mostly snow as it probably will be outside of 128)....but I don't trust the GFS QPF either with the thermals...it might be enhancing it.

Mby May pull a 10+ out of this.   

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WthrJunkyME

WthrJunkyME

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, weathafella said:

OT but I remember exactly where I was when I heard that song for the first time in the summer of 1964 heading into my senior year of high school.

Must be good memories!  I was all of 5 mos. old, I’m afraid I don’t remember it’s release.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thats like 2 feet in interior E MA if the qpf is right (and it's mostly snow as it probably will be outside of 128)....but I don't trust the GFS QPF either with the thermals...it might be enhancing it.

Read my mind.

I don't feel comfortable forecasting over 20" anywhere because the heavy stuff is out by like 3am, but won't be shocked to see someone pull 2'.

30" I'd say is like 1/4 shot.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Posted
26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My best guess for Mass.

massachusetts-road-map.gif

hmm... It's certainly entertaining :)   however...I don't honestly know where you are getting the melted equivalent QPF in interior N/central purple region for 30"  

Even at 12::1 that's pushing the tin a bit.  I suppose we could flat out over perform QPF ...and one would be right by meso banding.  I mean, if we have a general layout for say 1.8" liq equiv, and then a band with thunder sends two level yellow stationary for 3.5 hours, you're going to over achieve in that band.  

I won't say it can't happen, ...I am just not sure it is "likely" enough to support 30.   I don't have problem with 18 or 20" as the upper bounds.  That all said, ... yeah, at some point if we wanna be 'greats' in this prognostic antics ...we have to take chances and put out the fringe calls, and seeing as there is enough variables at least within reach... it's unclear how 'fringed' 24 to 30" really is. 

Personally, I'd go 16" for the girth of the interior, and put the hills of Worcester and the plateau region out near Barre ... up through the Monads for 22" or so...  but would literally say to the public, some of the latest guidance suggests these numbers could even be higher - I think that ending statement 'tints' enough to rescue one's efforts if people wake up to a GFS blue dawn cryo wonderland

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Read my mind.

I don't feel comfortable forecasting over 20" anywhere because they heavy stuff is out by like 3am, but won't be shocked to see someone pull 2'.

30" I'd say is like 1/4 shot.

Yeah the systme does slow down a bit, but still not as much as I'd like....the one change in the past 24 hours (well the Euro never really waivered) is that all guidance keeps us out of the dryslot...we just go to town and also get the backend CCB/deformation stuff that tries to prolong the snow. So given that...I can see some 20-burgers where the banding sets up...but I don't want to forecast widespread 18"+.

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Read my mind.

I don't feel comfortable forecasting over 20" anywhere because they heavy stuff is out by like 3am, but won't be shocked to see someone pull 2'.

30" I'd say is like 1/4 shot.

I agree. I like a general 12-20'' for the interior. I really like your backyard for the best stuff out of the CCB. With these SE shifts I wouldn't be shocked if I'm stuck in the CCB/deform exhaust. 

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