Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is showing my age...

 

"When Quinn the Eskimo gets here,  everybody's gonna' want a dose".

[BRSno]

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...I was just pointing that out, because I can already envision the meltdowns in here when it is pounding heavy rain or mix early this evening within 5-10 miles of the coast while the interior is ripping S+. There are fresh wounds that haven't fully healed yet since last Friday....but this shouldn't be like that for most (further in SE MA along coast it will prob stay as mostly rain)

A lot of that grid that took a beating during last storm should see appreciable amounts of snow. Abington, S Weymouth, Brockton, Stoughton etc

[HimoorWx]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is showing my age...

 

Let's hope we're all singing Doo Wah Diddy Diddy later today!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is showing my age...

 

Is that Austin Powers second from left

[wxsniss]

12z RGEM looks very close to 6z

[CT Rain]

Have to like how things look this morning. Good for a mid level banding pivot point over my fanny? 

[NeonPeon]

I still don't see Newport getting anything.  What doesn't ring as true to me is providence getting 2 inches, even with the cute button warm nose.  I've never seen a gradient like that for this set up.  I can just see driving up to providence now, portsmouth with 2-3, bristol with 3-5, prov with 6.

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Have to like how things look this morning. Good for a mid level banding pivot point over my fanny? 

Hope your fanny is big enough cuz that biatch gonna be parked over me toooo!!

[wxsniss]

@NWSBoston: Snowfall nudged slightly higher BOS-PVD corridor but still high uncertainty! Most of accumulation 6 PM-Midnight. For BOS, around 2" in the city & 4-6" western suburbs. Expect further adjustments this afternoon. HIGH confidence in totals for CT, western/central MA & N RI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I was reading that NYC thread. I mean lol. They thought it was supposed to be ripping there already when it doesn’t start until noon and are worried and cancelling the storm . It just makes you wonder about people 

[Hoth]

I like when Ryan gets excited. That's generally a sign that things will go apes***.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

@NWSBoston: Snowfall nudged slightly higher BOS-PVD corridor but still high uncertainty! Most of accumulation 6 PM-Midnight. For BOS, around 2" in the city & 4-6" western suburbs. Expect further adjustments this afternoon. HIGH confidence in totals for CT, western/central MA & N RI.

Ironically enough, they have the outer bounds of uncertainty crossing my property, when in reality the only thing I am uncertain about as it relates to the forecast for MBY is what in the hell they are looking at-

[bristolri_wx]

Hard to believe stuff still this much change in the model runs within 24 hours...

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Let's hope we're all singing Doo Wah Diddy Diddy later today!

OT but I remember exactly where I was when I heard that song for the first time in the summer of 1964 heading into my senior year of high school.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The 3k NAM is pretty damn cold almost to the canal.

There are some model that’s are giving us 8-12” of pure paste here

[HoarfrostHubb]

I do like this wording in the WSW for my zone

..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches,
  with localized amounts up to 20 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Most of interior Massachusetts.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to
  impossible. Tree branches could fall. Be prepared for
  significant reductions in visibility at times.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Any Harv tweets

[ice1972]

7 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I like when Ryan gets excited. That's generally a sign that things will go apes***.

This x1000......

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Any Harv tweets

Have not checked but he is not as twitter based as some other mets

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Hard to believe stuff still this much change in the model runs within 24 hours...

Changes seem exaggerated due to the thermal profile being extremely borderline. We wouldn't notice if we had below 0c 850s to DC.

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

OT but I remember exactly where I was when I heard that song for the first time in the summer of 1964 heading into my senior year of high school.

I remember watching them on The Ed Sullivan show..................lol

[JC-CT]

NWS is still calling for a heck of an elevation gradient along the borderline areas. Like 3" to 12" over 5 miles near IJD and the Quinebaug valley.

[Hoth]

Wow at the Mt Holly radar blowing up. Like that pivot extrapolated.

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Hard to believe stuff still this much change in the model runs within 24 hours...

I think as models get more accurate, people have increasing expectations of accuracy.

The broad strokes of this storm were forecast with remarkable consistency like 5 days out, no?  And the area of uncertainty, though meaningful to you, and a lesser extent me, given we are at the rain snow line, is just incredibly hard to forecast. They are right to just highlight this area as largely unknown, and I get not just knee jerking to every new model guidance, and having an opinion.  I don't totally get not budging at all though, but I expect they are just waiting to do so.  I think they can get away with it a bit more given the timing.

[SouthCoastMA]

The latest HRRR runs are pretty snow to the coast

[wxsniss]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ironically enough, they have the outer bounds of uncertainty crossing my property, when in reality the only thing I am uncertain about as it relates to the forecast for MBY is what in the hell they are looking at-

Agree... I can't criticize, I obviously respect the profession, they're solid in an extremely tough job and this was a hard forecast. That said, I don't think your area is in question.

[ORH_wxman]

Lol at GFS for tonight....At least it finally has 925mb temps below 0C from BED to ORH...still trying to torch the sfc though.

[rnaude241]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The latest HRRR runs are pretty snow to the coast

Indeed, they seem very cold.

[jbenedet]

My best guess for Mass.