Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Typhoon Tip]

Well well well well...  so it appears the models have finally coalesced around this things... and, the Euro won.

'Course .. to be fair, we gotta let it play out... Sufficed it is to say, so far all indications and observations have the party organizers uncorking the champagne.  

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah....even though we get it hasn't been dominant all winter, it's not exactly the NOGAPS or ICON model....it was a huge head-scratcher to completely disregard it. Looks pretty bad now.

 

 

Jay will verify their forecast anyway.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Meh...I've seen that posted multiple times the past 24hrs.

Depending what you need to get snow in your area, Models tend to go ________ in Miller B's.

[TalcottWx]

This uncertainty isn't anything new.

Why wouldn't they at least have an advisory or watch along the area? 

I understand the requirements, but I have people betting me it won't snow within 5 miles of the airport right now.

[TalcottWx]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Jay will verify their forecast anyway.

All hail the king!

[CoastalWx]

NWS put TSSNGS in the NYC TAFS. Man stuff.

[dendrite]

Just now, sbos_wx said:

All hail the king!

Jay Peak

[eyewall]

Snow has started here. If the Euro is correct it would just be advisory level in the end up here.

[TalcottWx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Jay Peak

I'm heading to the top of Dorchester Heights nude with a kite during the thundersnow. 

[CoastalWx]

Someone with these winds and all that wet snow is going to have grid issues. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Who is Quinn?

[HullMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone with these winds and all that wet snow is going to have grid issues. 

Scituate and hull are definitely going to have grid issues. Part of scituate is under 7 feet of sand right now.

[wxsniss]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Who is Quinn?

The media's name for this storm lol... I'd never call anyone here stupifying 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who is Quinn?

Medicine woman?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

The media's name for this storm lol... I'd never call anyone here stupifying 

 

 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Medicine woman?

Showing your age

[JC-CT]

geezus Box has 0" for gloucester?

It's one thing to bust from 2" to 10", but when you forecast 0"...

[ORH_wxman]

The coastline will struggle early on...so everyone there should remember that...esp when the obs outside of 128 are probably pretty nice. Won't be surprised to see it still as an ugly white rain/mix or even plain rain until well into the evening around 7-9pm....but then they should rip after that....esp between about 9pm and 3am.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

geezus Box has 0" for gloucester?

It's one thing to bust from 2" to 10", but when you forecast 0"...

Right now they have verified.

[NeonPeon]

Just now, JC-CT said:

geezus Box has 0" for gloucester?

Box haven't budged since the trend was a little west.  We'll see if they blink this morning I guess, but given the logic was that the Euro was anomalous and against the consensus, and now the GFS looks anomalous, you'd think they would go for a model blend and an incremental move of the gradient east.

[Hoth]

lol some weenies already melting in the NY forum. Must be a Miller B.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

Box haven't budged since the trend was a little west.  We'll see if they blink this morning I guess, but given the logic was that the Euro was anomalous and against the consensus, and now the GFS looks anomalous, you'd think they would go for a model blend and an incremental move of the gradient east.

They did budge a bit, they had me at 11ish, dropped me to 7", bumped me back up to 10". But they are still really low out east. I think they will start as rain but when it flips it will be crazy.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

lol some weenies already melting in the NY forum. Must be a Miller B.

lol - I think they aren't supposed to flip until this afternoon anyway even on the cold guidance

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The coastline will struggle early on...so everyone there should remember that...esp when the obs outside of 128 are probably pretty nice. Won't be surprised to see it still as an ugly white rain/mix or even plain rain until well into the evening around 7-9pm....but then they should rip after that....esp between about 9pm and 3am.

That's still such a massive improvement. Besides, the paste will be cool. 

I'm kinda concerned for the already hard hit interior portions of SE MA. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I was reading that NYC thread. I mean lol. They thought it was supposed to be ripping there already when it doesn’t start until noon and are worried and cancelling the storm . It just makes you wonder about people 

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Showing your age

This is showing my age...

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The coastline will struggle early on...so everyone there should remember that...esp when the obs outside of 128 are probably pretty nice. Won't be surprised to see it still as an ugly white rain/mix or even plain rain until well into the evening around 7-9pm....but then they should rip after that....esp between about 9pm and 3am.

Agree. I don't expect anything until after 7 really. 

[NeonPeon]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

lol some weenies already melting in the NY forum. Must be a Miller B.

What are they melting about, they seem to be in the goods regardless of what model is looked at.  Fretting over hearing some rain before the thing even spins up?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Agree. I don't expect anything until after 7 really. 

Yeah...I was just pointing that out, because I can already envision the meltdowns in here when it is pounding heavy rain or mix early this evening within 5-10 miles of the coast while the interior is ripping S+. There are fresh wounds that haven't fully healed yet since last Friday....but this shouldn't be like that for most (further in SE MA along coast it will prob stay as mostly rain)

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

What are they melting about, they seem to be in the goods regardless of what model is looked at.  Fretting over hearing some rain before the thing even spins up?

The people usually melting are the ones that really have no idea what they are talking about.