Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[TalcottWx]

If we're in sn+++ and it's warm I don't care to be honest lol. Just bring the snow

[Greg]

What  the Boston mets on twitter are trying to say is that although it may snow all the way to Logan Airport, the amount that will be on the ground solid may be 5,6 or 7" of pure glop on the grassy surfaces and car tops but wet pavement and sidewalks.

[codfishsnowman]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

some day you should stop by and see me, now you can ride the zip line over lol

you work at the museum?

[J Paul Gordon]

4 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

GOES-16 has a 1 minute Meso-sector for the event. With all the little nuances. Need real-time profile temps through the column.   

I just read somewhere that the Gulf Stream is gonna collapse at the same time we go into a super low sunspot cycle. In other words, a new ice age.

And, did you know that astronauts never landed on the moon? It was all staged in Hollywood, which is gonna slip off the edge of our flat earth when the San Andreas goes ballistic in a couple years.

Great for an SNL skit about deplorables

[ORH_wxman]

With the rates later on tonight, it's probably not going to matter if you are in BOS or BED....on the shoulders of the heavy core is where you'll see the differences I think. Like BED will prob be accumulating at 31-32 moderate 1/2 vis or light 3/4 vis while BOS may struggle at 33-34 in that intensity.

But there is definitely a core 4-6 hours where the rates are pretty sick, so I think even BOS will prob get 6+ from that alone.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

you work at the museum?

yes sir

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

yes sir

I'm heading to Mohegan Saturday for a drunken bus trip

[JC-CT]

Damn NAM, that is so close to a freaking pasting for Plymouth. I'm rooting for nopoles to get norain

[TalcottWx]

The Rap is unholy

[TalcottWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

With the rates later on tonight, it's probably not going to matter if you are in BOS or BED....on the shoulders of the heavy core is where you'll see the differences I think. Like BED will prob be accumulating at 31-32 moderate 1/2 vis or light 3/4 vis while BOS may struggle at 33-34 in that intensity.

But there is definitely a core 4-6 hours where the rates are pretty sick, so I think even BOS will prob get 6+ from that alone.

Looks like I'm gonna win my bet with Fisher

[JC-CT]

Somebody bump-troll the hell out of @CoastalWx, TIA

[wxsniss]

12z NAM holding serve, maybe a little less dynamic with qpf especially further north, thermals about the same despite maybe a hair west thru 20hr?  Probably all noise compared to 6z...

 

[JC-CT]

Ah, and ccb rotting over tolland county. The way things should be.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Somebody bump-troll the hell out of @CoastalWx, TIA

He forgot to take into account during his pessimism for the coast that Weymouth is the snow capital of New England

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Somebody bump-troll the hell out of @CoastalWx, TIA

Hey all that matters is that airport on a peninsula...lol. They still are tricky. Bombs away just inland.

[dendrite]

Glad they’re retiring these POS models soon. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Hey all that matters is that airport on a peninsula...lol. They still are tricky. Bombs away just inland.

No way, don't try to pull that crap! You were talking about your hood. 2" of sloppy slush.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Glad they’re retiring these POS models soon. 

At least the chickens will be happy

[CoastalWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

No way, don't try to pull that crap! You were talking about your hood. 2" of sloppy slush.

True. And it's borderline there too. I have this awful vision of 4 miles west of me getting double.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dendrite said:

Glad they’re retiring these POS models soon. 

Yeah, the changes at h5 at 12 hours vs 6...nasogood. So now we are going to get a model with the thermals of the GFS and the overresolution-driven unreliability of the NAM? sweet

[Damage In Tolland]

Some places interior SNE will pull 20” out of this . Can see it lining up 

[ORH_wxman]

Hey in fairness, I thought the coast was cooked too...esp from near BOS southward...there wasn't a lot of evidence to say they weren't. You had the Euro as an eastern outlier "barely" having them cold enough for good snow.

It just happened that this was the storm where the Euro got its mojo back and took other guidance to the woodshed inside of 48 hours.

[ORH_wxman]

The synoptics weren't favorable for the coast either....it's a needle-threader there.

[wxsniss]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

With the rates later on tonight, it's probably not going to matter if you are in BOS or BED....on the shoulders of the heavy core is where you'll see the differences I think. Like BED will prob be accumulating at 31-32 moderate 1/2 vis or light 3/4 vis while BOS may struggle at 33-34 in that intensity.

But there is definitely a core 4-6 hours where the rates are pretty sick, so I think even BOS will prob get 6+ from that alone.

Yes... not understanding the holding back on the warnings / 6+ forecasts... the shoulders could be light rain, but the meat is at least 6 hours of heavy wet snow that should accumulate.

We just had an OES pass through... brief decent snow rates. Thermals are not warmer during snowfall later, and even colder at the surface. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hey in fairness, I thought the coast was cooked too...esp from near BOS southward...there wasn't a lot of evidence to say they weren't. You had the Euro as an eastern outlier "barely" having them cold enough for good snow.

It just happened that this was the storm where the Euro got its mojo back and took other guidance to the woodshed inside of 48 hours.

Euro, Ukmet, and the bastard child JMA which was the furthest east and coldest of them all.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The synoptics weren't favorable for the coast either....it's a needle-threader there.

I suppose there could still be some BL concerns directly on the coast. I don't see an issue anymore at 925 and certainly not 850.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Euro, Ukmet, and the bastard child JMA which was the furthest east and coldest of them all.

They were. But when a tick west means maybe 1C warmer in the column and all rain...it's tough to go for a snowy outcome in such a borderline profile. It still is too. You need dynamics, and that is a tough way to run a snowy outcome. 

[TalcottWx]

When you get to work and you realize no one else showed up.. LOL

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some places interior SNE will pull 20” out of this . Can see it lining up 

AWT

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Euro, Ukmet, and the bastard child JMA which was the furthest east and coldest of them all.

Ukie def was on the Euro side, but wasn't quite as favorable until yesterday.

I'm talking the coast here....not just west on the coastal plain like the 128 belt. I always thought they were in the game.