Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Weatherexpert]

11 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This was your best funny attempt yet, solid.

Whatever runaway iceberg you always think you are so funny and cool by saying that and are a #memehater

[weathafella]

Latest MAV for KBOS is an 8 muthufukkas!

[Johnno]

Man the RPM makes a run for 2’ or so here 

[wxsniss]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Latest MAV for KBOS is an 8 muthufukkas!

 

I don't understand the more conservative forecasts after the overnight runs... seems very strong consensus for warning criteria (Euro, 0z and more so 6z NAM, RGEMs, HRPDS, HRRR, ICON, BTV WRF)... only GFS and CMC whose ptype's look questionable

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 

I don't understand the more conservative forecasts after the overnight runs... seems very strong consensus for warning criteria (Euro, 0z and more so 6z NAM, RGEMs, HRPDS, HRRR, ICON, BTV WRF)... only GFS and CMC whose ptype's look questionable

Psychology maybe after last Friday?   It’s crazy but how many time have you rethought a lot of diagnoses after one went badly?  Conservative is ok but ignoring signs seems fool hardy.

[CoastalWx]

Riggity RAP is nuts in BOS.  Also, OES should tell you it's cold upstairs.

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Riggity RAP is nuts in BOS.  Also, OES should tell you it's cold upstairs.

Ripping in Lynn right now

[CT Rain]

38 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ryan already going after the forecast trolls this morning.

Great way to start the day

[Hoth]

17 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Man the RPM makes a run for 2’ or so here 

Yeah Jimmy Cantore picked a good spot if that is accurate. Wow.

[butterfish55]

Psychology maybe after last Friday?   It’s crazy but how many time have you rethought a lot of diagnoses after one went badly?  Conservative is ok but ignoring signs seems fool hardy.

Me Bob and Brett are definitely riding the line down here. Box and the TV Mets are either going to look very smart or or they will be scrambling to up their totals while it's snowing. All of the forecast are still essentially 0.0 here

[wxsniss]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Psychology maybe after last Friday?   It’s crazy but how many time have you rethought a lot of diagnoses after one went badly?  Conservative is ok but ignoring signs seems fool hardy.

Yeah I think that's actually happening, and got that impression reading the AFD

Looking at guidance I'm scratching my head wondering what I'm missing. Everything has trended colder and we are no longer sitting on the fence, the rates are there...

Warmest the 6z NAM gets:

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 I am so distraught that overnight BOX lowered my forecast total from 15" to 14".    

 In all seriousness, I wonder if this thing is timed just right, that despite this being Greenfield's biggest storm of the season we do not miss a day of school?  Early dismissal today and maybe 2 hour delay tomorrow?   All while getting a foot mid week.   The kids will be furious but parents will rejoice. 

 

 

[codfishsnowman]

glad i took a break yesterday....but it was expensive...ugh

[tavwtby]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I am so distraught that overnight BOX lowered my forecast total from 15" to 14".    

 In all seriousness, I wonder if this thing is timed just right, that despite this being Greenfield's biggest storm of the season we do not miss a day of school?  Early dismissal today and maybe 2 hour delay tomorrow?   All while getting a foot mid week.   The kids will be furious but parents will rejoice. 

 

 

Yeah, they sent a letter home two days ago saying early dismissal today, then cancelled last night,.

[Damage In Tolland]

Cranky with the best gfs summation I’ve ever seen

Even the horrid GFS model finally gave up the goat and came into line with the process. It has been atrocious recently especially with thermals. Why this wouldn't be immediately tossed from the start I don't know. You didn't even have to analyze it you just had to remember it was a disaster the past four or five storms with thermals and simply ignore it.

[Sn0waddict]

Huh latest HRRR warms the ct coast up to 38 and we rain until the afternoon. Don’t follow the HRRR enough to know if it’s accurate but that seems even warmer than what the gfs thermals were.

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Tough break! I could see it going either way tommorow, depending on the impact (Delay vs Closure). But if they are trying to avoid using a snow day, the timing is perfect.

Based on the early Jan storm, I would expect closures tomorrow, especially if we get some wind.  If this shuts off at 3AM or so, it will be hard for places to get things opened up enough even with a delay.  Just my thoughts

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah..lol. Herpes came to mind. 

I am sure there are a few herpes models out there.

Hopefully a great storm for the forum.

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Looks like the snow is spreading east already, nice ocean effect squalls coming in with the easterly flow. Got hit with one even out this way earlier this morning dropping a nice fluff coating and more incoming possibly it looks like. 31F

The stuff we got overnight I think was from the east I think?  0.25" at my house

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Huh latest HRRR warms the ct coast up to 38 and we rain until the afternoon. Don’t follow the HRRR enough to know if it’s accurate but that seems even warmer than what the gfs thermals were.

Wow. Snow line seems to be Bridgeport. Do we toss or should we be concerned?

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

glad i took a break yesterday....but it was expensive...ugh

some day you should stop by and see me, now you can ride the zip line over lol

[Sn0waddict]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow. Snow line seems to be Bridgeport. Do we toss or should we be concerned?

Well it certainly delivered the goods afterwards and gives us 12 inches by 16hr (and it’s still snowing) but I wouldn’t be too surprised if we had a period of rain during the later morning when the precip is still light.  Hopefully it’s just bad thermals though. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Well it certainly delivered the goods afterwards and gives us 12 inches by 16hr (and it’s still snowing) but I wouldn’t be too surprised if we had a period of rain during the later morning when the precip is still light.  Hopefully it’s just bad thermals though. 

Plus its the HRRR. The RGEM had the same rain to thundersnow idea.

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 Good lord what a tough forecast for Boston. 

Yeah, this is about as difficult as I've seen, to be honest 

[eyewall]

Looking at the radar it appears we will see an earlier start here with an initial band.

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

They will be marginal in the final 1000ft. And probably not go below 33 for many hours. Plus, relying on dynamics. So, 3-6 is a good start on the water there I think, but obviously worried it could be more. I could see western parts of the city double that. If I use 950Tw, they most certainly are snow on the NAM this evening and overnight. 

Could be an all-time melt from me. We'll see

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Could be an all-time melt from me. We'll see

8" in J.P , 1.5 E Bos?

[WintersComing]

Well.....this is pretty impressive!!

[wxsniss]

@NWSBoston on twitter emphasizing the "how much sticks" rather than what's falling:

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/971371977872113665

"Snow totals are how much will be on the ground. That's the challenge for E MA. We know it will snow, even to the coast, but how much will stick with temperatures just above freezing? That's going to be our focus today."

[ROOSTA]

GOES-16 has a 1 minute Meso-sector for the event. With all the little nuances. Need real-time profile temps through the column.