Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have no clue what to do.

You take em up. You tip your cap 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Hey Kev..found some snow porn for ya.


.

Feet

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Fight or flight time.

GFS = 0.5"

NAM = 20.8"

I don't see what Scott's problem is.

[WintersComing]

I have no clue what to do.

I think 3-6 at least. I’d through GFS in the garbage with this storm. Euro never gets 925s close to Boston.


.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

I think 3-6 at least. I’d through GFS in the garbage with this storm. Euro never gets 925s close to Boston.


.

They will be marginal in the final 1000ft. And probably not go below 33 for many hours. Plus, relying on dynamics. So, 3-6 is a good start on the water there I think, but obviously worried it could be more. I could see western parts of the city double that. If I use 950Tw, they most certainly are snow on the NAM this evening and overnight. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They will be marginal in the final 1000ft. And probably not go below 33 for many hours. Plus, relying on dynamics. So, 3-6 is a good start on the water there I think, but obviously worried it could be more. I could see western parts of the city double that. If I use 950Tw, they most certainly are snow on the NAM this evening and overnight. 

The GFS just won't relent. Continues to warm the boundary layer, even after dark, almost right through 06z. The NAM just holds at 33 like you say. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

The GFS just won't relent. Continues to warm the boundary layer, even after dark, almost right through 06z. The NAM just holds at 33 like you say. 

28-29 Hills for the duration you think?

[WintersComing]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They will be marginal in the final 1000ft. And probably not go below 33 for many hours. Plus, relying on dynamics. So, 3-6 is a good start on the water there I think, but obviously worried it could be more. I could see western parts of the city double that. If I use 950Tw, they most certainly are snow on the NAM this evening and overnight. 

Ya it's a ****ty call no doubt.  Start with a reasonable amount with a big freakin caveat saying could be considerably more?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The GFS just won't relent. Continues to warm the boundary layer, even after dark, almost right through 06z. The NAM just holds at 33 like you say. 

Sell the thermal profiles. BUt on the water...tough to go balls to wall. However, if I lived near 128...We pound. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

28-29 Hills for the duration you think?

You might even find your way to near freezing with the initial surge of WAA before tickling back down. 

[WintersComing]

Could be wrong but most other guidance tells the GFS to feck off.  Its been absolutely horrible with this storm so why trust it now.

[EastonSN+]

 Now RGEM and CMC are the warmest solutions with the NAM and EURO colder.

 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Sell the thermal profiles. BUt on the water...tough to go balls to wall. However, if I lived near 128...We pound. 

I mean look at this. Image is NAM Tw in the lowest 1 km (black line 0C). The white lines overlaid on that is the GFS Tw in the lowest 1 km.

While BOS flirts with 0C on the NAM, the GFS is like +3.5! 

Garbage.

[Hoth]

38 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Hey Kev..found some snow porn for ya.


.

Oh how we pray.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

The GFS just won't relent. Continues to warm the boundary layer, even after dark, almost right through 06z. The NAM just holds at 33 like you say. 

Still warmer than the NAM/Euro...but a definite improvement over 0z back here in CT...so I’d take that as good news.


.

[WintersComing]

Scott.....you could always take the Kev route and just go balls deep

[Johnno]

Cantore set up on 84 in Bethel, CT USA

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

hrdps consistent for several runs now:

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We prayed long and hard last night to reach top 5 levels. 18” would do it. ONE time baby!

[CoastalWx]

Man the herpes model is scary.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Cantore set up on 84 in Bethel, CT USA

He’s usually in the right spot maybe our lucky rabbit’s foot. But Bethel? lol. At least do Newtown for a positive (weather) story. For good reasons.

[WintersComing]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man the herpes model is scary.

? ....HRDPS?

 

[Johnno]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s usually in the right spot maybe our lucky rabbits foot. But Bethel? lol. At least do Newtown for a positive (weather) story. For good reasons.

Maxon was talking to him on nbc30 he said he went west to avoid dry slot and to get the best forcing etc, hopefully we all rock

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

? ....HRDPS?

 

Been 6/7 runs of remarkable consistency now. Maybe it’s overdone but a boy can dream. 

[Hoth]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We prayed long and hard last night to reach top 5 levels. 18” would do it. ONE time baby!

Really feeling this one, Berg. You can practically see the intense diffluence aloft on the NJ radar. This sucker is gonna take off in the next few hours. You're gonna get smoked.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

? ....HRDPS?

 

Yeah..lol. Herpes came to mind. 

[WintersComing]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Been 6/7 runs of remarkable consistency now. Maybe it’s overdone but a boy can dream. 

Hey...I'm all in with ya!!

[ineedsnow]

HRRR looks beautiful

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah..lol. Herpes came to mind. 

Keep your mind out of the gutter and stay focused!! hahaha.......screw it...go all in.  "It's better to ask for forgiveness than asking for permission"!!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Really feeling this one, Berg. You can practically see the intense diffluence aloft on the NJ radar. This sucker is gonna take off in the next few hours. You're gonna get smoked.

Yea man. I felt it for days now but I could not let the weenie out too much, but it’s starting to poke through the jammies this morning. Cautiously optimistic for high end of the ranges. GL over there sir.