Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Absurd thermals still

Still think GFS has no clue with this one.  Just need to take the up side that the track caved to everything else.  Cold and qpf will be there.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

One way to avoid it is to just not look at GFS ptype maps or clown maps....its a refreshing model experience.

Great when all soundings show a straight up snow profile and those maps show rain

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Absurd thermals still

Check some soundings out, we bang

[wxsniss]

That's 3 for 3 in 0z suite

Euro gravitational pull delayed but not denied... and we're not talking ticks, those were big jumps southeast

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Definitely SE with that dry slot

Will you take them up so we can take em off?

[ajisai]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

GFS actually crushes eastern MA.

heavy stuff sticks around from 03z to 12z... nice

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Great when all soundings show a straight up snow profile and those maps show rain

Well the soundings are warm below 925..but it's not really believable that KBED is rain with a -2 at 900mb and -4 at 850 with that track.

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Colts run defense in the goal line stand against 1993 Emmitt Smith.

It's pretty bad, but at least it's consistently much warmer than the rest.

My biggest red flag (and I mentioned this last night in my AFD) is that the GFS continues to warm the boundary layer, while the rest of the model guidance pins that coastal front in place and even cools at 00z when the heavy stuff starts.

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Will you take them up so we can take em off?

 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’ve been very emotional today swinging from bridge jumping to cartwheels now. Just remember that when others do it too. Everything doesnt always have to be pristine model discussions. Weather is fun too.... roller coasters are good times. Hope you get pasted.

Except I wasn't actually bridge jumping. I was being a wisea*s. 

I get your point, but I posted keep the faith several times this afternoon and said either 3-6" or 5-10" as my lowest forecast this afternoon.

I also clearly started there was a chance for it to go the other way.

I wasn't blindly posting, 'It's going to rain' without looking at any of the model runs, like we had multiple people doing last storm

[rnaude241]

I wonder if this keeps trending east if even I can pickup 2-4". 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Well the soundings are warm below 925..but it's not really believable that KBED is rain with a -2 at 900mb and -4 at 850 with that track.

Best guess on every sounding I pulled for my hood said snow. Best guess tosses GFS surface temps I guess 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

 

Hey I predicted this yesterday, do you remember,  lol

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Best guess on every sounding I pulled for my hood said snow. Best guess tosses GFS surface temps I guess 

They should...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, Stash said:

Yikes, big cutback over ALY area from KALB on north where they currently have 12-18 forecasted.  

We don't want to see the Euro take a tic E tonight, that's for sure.  BOX and Albany have been really aggressive with snow amounts from Catskills through Albany, Berkshires and NW MA.  I would rather not wake up to see those totals cut by 1/3 or 1/2 but I have had a hard time believing the amounts for WNE / E NY / S VT.  

[WintersComing]

Most recent HRRR has a nice look to it FWIW

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hey I predicted this yesterday, do you remember,  lol

I think he was just waiting for your blessing lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Catskill cxl

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Stash said:

As it appears now, you've certainly done a better job on this one, congrats! Out this way, we're used to having the football pulled away at the last second in these. Especially the past several years.

If it makes you feel any better, I'd have rather had the last one.

[OceanStWx]

That faux GFS mixed layer really taints the overall look to things. When I plot 950 mb temps, the Reg and NAM12 really give a reasonable look to the coastal front pinned near 95. But the GFS has above freezing well back into MA and NH because it thinks 950 is in the mixed layer. 

In my opinion it even taints the wet bulb temp, because the surface is just too warm in the first place and gives an artificially high wet bulb because of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well the soundings are warm below 925..but it's not really believable that KBED is rain with a -2 at 900mb and -4 at 850 with that track.

Really, really good consensus now for SLP track just inside the BM and outside of ACK...climo sweet spot for me.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Sup folks!

Spent the last hour catching up.  Not surprised by some of the model trends.  Razor thin margin for some still.  Still a great thump for the CT peeps up into MA W of Rt 128 and N of I-90.  The 00z RGEM has a nasty dryslot that shuts off the precip in E areas around midnight or shortly thereafter.

[ORH_wxman]

Uncle is a bit east of 12z on the plymouth maps...better maps out in about 45 min

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Catskill cxl

Let's not move on to a Berkshires cancel also.  

 

[ajisai]

[WintersComing]

Some bangin snowfall rates over CT there

[Baroclinic Zone]

Forgot to add this.

The GFS sucks with temps in the BL.  Seriously, why is it so awful?

[CT Rain]

The GFS is pretty much pornographic here

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

and it has on and off flakes in the air through Saturday night....weeks and weeks of snow.

[TalcottWx]

Going to try to go to bed. We'll see how this goes.