Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[wxsniss]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

NAM and GFS were NW today at 22Z , Euro dead nutz,that's when I locked the Euro in here.

Yeah I posted earlier today... I've been sweating because I told my boss and my entire group 6-10 for Boston... I got amused looks

I gave Euro weight for being relatively consistent, but I was nervous this would capture early and blow it's load on Philly/NYC northwest like lots of other guidance showed

We'll see... still want to see more support that trough shoots out more east. Gonna be fun to track real-time H5 over OH valley and surface pressure obs down south. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's counting some of your qpf as rain on the clown maps....erroneously IMHO. You still have a lot of qpf.

Even over ORH county.....not a wide area over 12".

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CT Rain said:

GFS is SE

Colts run defense in the goal line stand against 1993 Emmitt Smith.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CT Rain said:

GFS is SE

Will you take em up so we can take em off?

[Buddy1987]

Man I’m finally just switching with the wife now. Been through moderate snow from Maryland to now near Allentown PA. Radar is in a hurry to start dumping quicker than what I thought. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Gfs wont budge

Looked to move east at a further south location at 24.  

 

[Thunderblizzard]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Gfs wont budge

Huh? It's pretty far SE of the last few runs.

[Stash]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

NYC going big on REGGIE.

Yikes, big cutback over ALY area from KALB on north where they currently have 12-18 forecasted.  

[WintersComing]

Ya GFS much further SE

[weathafella]

GFS takes it aver ACK.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Man I’m finally just switching with the wife now. Been through moderate snow from Maryland to now near Allentown PA. Radar is in a hurry to start dumping quicker than what I thought. 

You on top for once?

[Hoth]

GFS way SE. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even over ORH county.....not a wide area over 12".

The qpf max in E MA is a bit east of ORH county on this run.

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Gfs wont budge

 

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

GFS is SE

??? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stash said:

Yikes, big cutback over ALY area from KALB on north where they currently have 12-18 forecasted.  

They were wrong....AWT(10)

[WintersComing]

GFS colder as welll

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The qpf max in E MA is a bit east of ORH county on this run.

Cool.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

 

??? 

Think he means with the depiction of the R/S line. 

[TalcottWx]

That's snow right into BOS. Sick.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Flips most of EMA Boston north to heavy snow by hr 36 

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, PeabodyFlood said:

Think he means with the depiction of the R/S line. 

Does anyone use the GFS to determine the rain/snow line in this sort of event?  I'd rather use the NAM...

[weathafella]

Euro appears to be re-asserting its superiority ths event.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

 

??? 

Wont budge with the warmth.... Stillb tries to rain on us... And yes i know the gfs runs warm for the most part just hate seeing it

[WintersComing]

Ryan I see you are bumping up.....what are your thoughts?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Wont budge with the warmth.... Stillb tries to rain on us... And yes i know the gfs runs warm for the most part just hate seeing it

One way to avoid it is to just not look at GFS ptype maps or clown maps....its a refreshing model experience.

[Stash]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They were wrong....AWT(10)

As it appears now, you've certainly done a better job on this one, congrats! Out this way, we're used to having the football pulled away at the last second in these. Especially the past several years.

[wxsniss]

Absurd thermals still

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

That's snow right into BOS. Sick.

You’ve been very emotional today swinging from bridge jumping to cartwheels now. Just remember that when others do it too. Everything doesnt always have to be pristine model discussions. Weather is fun too.... roller coasters are good times. Hope you get pasted.

[CT Rain]

Definitely SE with that dry slot

[weathafella]

GFS actually crushes eastern MA.