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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ariof

ariof

Posted
Posted
  On 3/7/2018 at 6:11 PM, PeabodyFlood said:

Public unrest is going to be through the roof tonight when they see that they've gone from a minor event to a quality snowstorm while they've been at work. 

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Yeah, it could be really bad, almost Dec-2007 levels. Get some slush on the road, drop the temp to 31, add enough traffic plows and salt trucks get stuck in the traffic is a recipe for disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if Route 2 is closed headed up to the light at Tracey's corner: all it takes is a couple cars spinning out on the ice there trying to start on the hill and the whole road goes to hell.

Given how much difference 20 miles made, I don't think NWS and other mets should have downplayed the upside for this forecast.

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zoe456

zoe456

Posted
Posted

SPC mesoscale analysis: 

Mesoscale Discussion 0111
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CST Wed Mar 07 2018

   Areas affected...New Jersey...Southeast Pennsylvania...Southeast New
   York...Southern New England

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 071825Z - 080030Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall is expected to continue across
   parts of southeast Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York City this
   afternoon gradually spreading northeastward into southern New
   England.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 995 mb low about
   110 statute miles east of the southern Delaware coast. A pronounced
   dry slot evident on water vapor imagery is located just off the New
   Jersey coast. Water vapor imagery shows rapidly cooling cloud tops
   over the last couple of hours in the southern part of the MCD area
   and lightning strikes are also noted. This is due to the approach of
   a band of large-scale ascent associated with a negatively-tilted
   upper-level trough moving through the Mid-Atlantic. This combined
   with strong isentropic ascent oriented parallel to the coast and
   just inland is maintaining a band of moderate to heavy
   precipitation.

   Although surface temperatures from New Jersey north-northeastward
   into southern New England are generally just above freezing,
   temperatures have cooled a couple degrees over the last hour. This
   dynamic cooling has resulted in a change-over from rain to snow in
   the New York City vicinity over the last hour. The heaviest snowfall
   is occurring within a band oriented from south-southwest to
   north-northeast across New Jersey and southeastern New York. This
   band will continue to spread north-northeastward into southern New
   England this afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
   will be common. A few spots could receive snowfall rates of more
   than 2 inches per hour especially related to convection. Locations
   in far southeastern Massachusetts near Cape Cod will likely remain
   rain through early evening.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 03/07/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

   LAT...LON   40507320 39827419 39497519 39877578 40547564 42067372
               42587157 42557086 42237057 41807059 41337106 41007213
               40507320
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wx2fish

wx2fish

Posted
Posted
  On 3/7/2018 at 6:11 PM, dendrite said:

I wouldn't go that far yet...just trying this revere psychology thing since it normally works out well for the whiners here.

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I think atleast down here were gonna get clipped by the CCB later. May not make it past CON but well see. I don't see any reason to lower things for atleast the southern part of the state 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 3/7/2018 at 6:44 PM, wx2fish said:

I think atleast down here were gonna get clipped by the CCB later. May not make it past CON but well see. I don't see any reason to lower things for atleast the southern part of the state 

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Yeah every model has the CCB east of here now. We’ll see how it goes. MHT-DAW still looks great. 

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