Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Damage In Tolland]

It closes sooner, but it also kicks east farther south. Big move to Euro 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:09 PM, wxsniss said:

Captures and closes off sNJ again... this is a bombs away Philly-NYC run... but trough squashed a bit more and may kick this east sooner than 12z, similar to last night's 0z run... actually looks cooler in SNE thru 30hr

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H5 is a bit more elongated than 12z...this is the trend that hopefully continues toward the Euro....this run verbatim won't help much, but I expect that trend to continue.

[WxBlue]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:05 PM, dryslot said:

H5 Closes off over Atlantic city.

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Definitely did that a lot earlier than 12z run.

[Hoth]

  On 3/6/2018 at 7:16 PM, StormSurge said:

Hoth, Ginx, any chance for me on the rock to see flakes? My expectations are extremely low.

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Boy, I'll defer to Ginx on that one. Suspect you play with the dry slot for a time, but not sure about snow. BTW, how did the island fare last weekend? Any wind/power problems?

[Damage In Tolland]

You guys on the line or in dry slot area out east.. you want earlier close off to shunt east  . Stall her a bit farther south 

[TalcottWx]

NAM looks like an improvement to me

[dryslot]

This is going to be the congrats dendrite run.

[CoastalWx]

 You know the other thing I kind of thought of was a pretty good gradient within the city of Boston. I could see something like Logan airport getting a sloppy inch or two at the end, whereas west roxbury or Allston could have several inches. 

[StormSurge]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:12 PM, Hoth said:

Boy, I'll defer to Ginx on that one. Suspect you play with the dry slot for a time, but not sure about snow. BTW, how did the island fare last weekend? Any wind/power problems?

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Thanks. 

No issues at all. Power stayed on the whole time. Tides were crazy-high but nothing really out of the ordinary.

[TalcottWx]

NAM still blows though. That is unfortunate. I mean it's the slightest of improvements.

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:16 PM, CoastalWx said:

 You know the other thing I kind of thought of was a pretty good gradient within the city of Boston. I could see something like Logan airport getting a sloppy inch or two at the end, whereas west roxbury or Allston could have several inches. 

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Stop

[78Blizzard]

925 0C line still way west on this run at hr 33.

[WxBlue]

That's a hell of dry slot over SE MA.

[JC-CT]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:17 PM, 78Blizzard said:

925 0C line still way west on this run at hr 33.

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Looks further west actually

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:17 PM, sbos_wx said:

NAM still blows though. That is unfortunate. I mean it's the slightest of improvements.

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It will cave...prob 00z or 06z tonight...or somewhat on both...it's not going to end up that zonked.

[jbenedet]

There must be a black hole or something over SE MA. How many storms traversed that area this season? Nuts...

[WintersComing]

When does Reggie run again?  Be interesting to see if it stands by the Euro or not.

[Baroclinic Zone]

For fun, here are the last 6 runs of the NAM.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:21 PM, jbenedet said:

There must be a black hole or something over SE MA. How many storms traversed that area this season? Nuts...

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Over climo for the season for snow so nothing lost here.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:22 PM, WintersComing said:

When does Reggie run again?  Be interesting to see if it stands by the Euro or not.

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In about 30-35 min,.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Btv wrf went nw at 12z after 3 consistent runs

Took L.P to Newport Ne to GHG. Tight Winfield around the low. 35F temp (isotherm)was pushed about 10 miles Nw

 

[CoastalWx]

 The NAM, will most certainly cave to a point. You aren’t going to beat the  euro and it’s ensembles like that. 

[DFRI]

BOX looks to be cutting back in RI

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

 The NAM, will most certainly cave to a point. You aren’t going to beat the  euro and it’s ensembles like that. 

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I consider these runs the "lets jackpot Caldwell, NJ before January 2015 and February 2013" type runs.

 

If it scores the coup, then big kudos, but I ain't putting my money on it.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

 The NAM, will most certainly cave to a point. You aren’t going to beat the  euro and it’s ensembles like that. 

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With thermals or LP

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:25 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Btv wrf went nw at 12z after 3 consistent runs

Took L.P to Newport Ne to GHG. Tight Winfield around the low. 35F temp (isotherm)was pushed about 10 miles Nw

 

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Used to like that model. I have stopped using it. 

[JC-CT]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:29 PM, DFRI said:

BOX looks to be cutting back in RI

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Cutback here too.

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:30 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

With thermals or LP

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Referring to LP.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:30 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

With thermals or LP

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Prob both....Euro will likely come NW a little too...but NAM will cave on both counts. I don't think it will track over RI into BOS, and thus the thermals are going to collapse SE too.

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 8:29 PM, DFRI said:

BOX looks to be cutting back in RI

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Horror show. Absolute back alley coat hanger