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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
  On 3/6/2018 at 6:11 PM, DomNH said:

General 1-2' is reasonable for this area but I agree, I wouldn't bank on 2'' of QPF or 12:1 ratios. I don't see lollis to 30'' here but I wouldn't be shocked if some towns pull off a couple feet. 

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I've been telling people 12-18". Might need to bump the upper limit to 21", but I'm not sure about 24" with such a wet snow.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
  On 3/6/2018 at 6:11 PM, DomNH said:

General 1-2' is reasonable for this area but I agree, I wouldn't bank on 2'' of QPF or 12:1 ratios. I don't see lollis to 30'' here but I wouldn't be shocked if some towns pull off a couple feet. 

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I wouldn't even be tossing out the idea if it wasn't for the duration. Snows for 24 hrs, conservatively...

I'm with you, and my original call is highest confidence obviously. But I can easily see a 25-50 sq mile area over the 24" mark.  

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tavwtby

tavwtby

Posted
Posted

ALY likes the lingering snow, upslope...

 

 Thursday, although the best synoptic forcing should lift north and east of the region, a moist, cyclonic low/mid level flow should promote considerable upslope snow across portions of the Taconics and western New England through a good portion of the day. In fact, Froude numbers from the Nam12 suggest a blocked flow scenario through much of the day, in which greatest vertical motion and most persistent snowfall occurs mainly upstream of higher terrain features such as the Green Mountains, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills.

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted
  On 3/6/2018 at 6:14 PM, WxBlue said:

I've been telling people 12-18". Might need to bump the upper limit to 21", but I'm not sure about 24" with such a wet snow.

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I bet some weenie town reports it. But I agree, that's a lolli. I actually really like GYX's map and not only because it jackpots ASH...looks about what I would forecast right now. 

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
  On 3/6/2018 at 6:17 PM, DomNH said:

I bet some weenie town reports it. But I agree, that's a lolli. I actually really like GYX's map and not only because it jackpots ASH...looks about what I would forecast right now. 

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  On 3/6/2018 at 6:18 PM, jbenedet said:

First half looks like wet snow, 2nd half could be powder.

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If you measure the snow properly and clear off the board every six hours, several observers will report around 24" of snow between here and MHT/ASH. I'd be amazed if we're the lolli and see 24" of snow depth the ground because first half wet snow will compress a bit before flakes become drier. 

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
  On 3/6/2018 at 6:11 PM, Hoth said:

Euro just loves that CT QPF screwgie. Hope it's wrong.

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  On 3/6/2018 at 6:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That is setting up a classic Codfishsnowman meltdown.

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Ridden this ride before. Multiple storms with similar tracks as what is being shown currently that have laid out the low qpf/ dry slotting.  Happens quite often in my area. 

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