Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Buddy1987]

GFS pretty meager with precip so far at 33. 

[TheBudMan]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:33 PM, Cyclone-68 said:

I hope this works out for the eastern SNE folks. I’d hate to have the next exciting weather event become a “see text” in mid June 

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Do not make Wiz angry ! 

[ORH_wxman]

Looks slightly less zonked than 06z....but still pretty amped.

[JC-CT]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:43 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Looks slightly less zonked than 06z....but still pretty amped.

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Pretty darn similar. A little less phased with the OHV low.

[Dan]

NWS Boston

 

✔@NWSBoston

[Forecast Model Update] Trends in 12z (7a) guidance are warmer, dry slot more aggressive; leaning towards pulling the rain / snow line a bit further W lessening amounts closer to coast; also evaluating accum 32-34°, some locales likely to only see accum on grassy surfaces

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:45 PM, Dan said:

NWS Boston

 

✔@NWSBoston

[Forecast Model Update] Trends in 12z (7a) guidance are warmer, dry slot more aggressive; leaning towards pulling the rain / snow line a bit further W lessening amounts closer to coast; also evaluating accum 32-34°, some locales likely to only see accum on grassy surfaces

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Why put this out before the GFS or Euro? 

[tavwtby]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:23 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

The CT peeps are at complaining about either 12" or 18" at this point. 

 

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No complaining here.. I like where I'm at for this one!!

[Dan]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:45 PM, sbos_wx said:

Why put this out before the GFS or Euro? 

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No idea...just came across it...was thinking the same thing tho, it was posted about 15 minutes ago.

[ORH_wxman]

Brutal dryslot over CT this run on GFS.

[dryslot]

12z Extended Reggie

 

[WintersComing]

The 500 and 700 mb seem a tab further south this run....not huge but a noticeable tick

[Buddy1987]

Stalls right over BOS from 42-48. Idk I just felt like it was a weird run. QPF should have been much better imo.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Brutal dryslot over CT this run on GFS.

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Yeah, 03z to 06z.  Yikes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Brutal dryslot over CT this run on GFS.

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Nice storm, so long as people didn't buy the silly HECS runs.

[JC-CT]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:49 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice storm, so long as people didn't buy the silly HECS runs.

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Yeah, looks ok to me.

[Hoth]

Seems weak relative to other guidance?

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Brutal dryslot over CT this run on GFS.

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Runs right up over central and eastern mass too. Is it real is the question 

[Buddy1987]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:50 PM, Hoth said:

Seems weak relative to other guidance?

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That's what I am saying hmm...

[JC-CT]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Brutal dryslot over CT this run on GFS.

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And then there's the canadian

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Runs right up over central and eastern mass too. Is it real is the question 

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We'll know in 2 hours, but I still like a track over the cape.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Runs right up over central and eastern mass too. Is it real is the question 

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Yeah it does...but it destroys C/E MA first with a newer forming conveyor out of the east to it's still a huge storm there (off immediate coast)...it screws CT this run by pushing the old one back into the catskills and kind of "skips" them.

 

It's prob not totally real.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:47 PM, Dan said:

No idea...just came across it...was thinking the  same thing tho, it was posted about 15 minutes ago.

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B.C the pattern supports that and gefs at 6z Were honking

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:52 PM, JC-CT said:

And then there's the canadian

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Can you post 700 mb?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:52 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it does...but it destroys C/E MA first with a newer forming conveyor out of the east to it's still a huge storm there (off immediate coast)...it screws CT this run by pushing the old one back into the catskills and kind of "skips" them.

 

It's prob not totally real.

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[MarkO]

Similar track to previous run. Was obviously hoping for a jog east towards Euro. We knew going in that this year would have a steep gradient in terms of seasonal snowfall, and once again, it looks like a Concord, NH north storm. Enjoy Dendrite, Gene.

[JKEisMan]

Model output for gfs on TT and pivotal is weird too - missing hours and maps. We toss.

[JC-CT]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:53 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Can you post 700 mb?

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Don't have it yet

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:47 PM, dryslot said:

12z Extended Reggie

 

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Thats a thing of beauty...we take!

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2018 at 3:54 PM, MarkO said:

Similar track to previous run. Was obviously hoping for a jog east towards Euro. We knew going in that this year would have a steep gradient in terms of seasonal snowfall, and once again, it looks like a Concord, NH north storm. Enjoy Dendrite, Gene.

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What are you smoking?

We get pasted that run.

[blizzard24]

to many people change their forecast every time models come out . i dont and low hasnt even formed yet . dont worry about the dry slot because chance of where they show wont be in that area   or might not have a dry slot or just little one .