Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:47 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And the rest of SNE?

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Interior SNE would do well. However, it's also sort of at the end of the run and RGEM reliability sometimes isn't the greatest. Overall I feel this is an interior SNE event. Thinking interior NE MA through NW RI and much of CT away from SE part of state. I understand the euro is colder and east, but I can't help but think it may come west so I am not sold on a snowy outcome near BOS at this time. Best chance for them is in 2nd half of storm. Hopefully the 12z stuff comes east.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:20 PM, CT Rain said:

I think we actually increased totals. The 8-14 contour got dragged south into coastal Fairfield co.

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Maxon expanded 8-14 SE of 84. 

Tonight you’ll have 12-18” northern 2/3 of the state with 6-12 south 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:51 PM, wx2fish said:

Tucked but alot colder than the gfs. More realistic imo 

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Yeah it does make sense. Not rain to the Berks like the GFS has.

[CT Rain]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:53 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Maxon expanded 8-14 SE of 84. 

Tonight you’ll have 12-18” northern 2/3 of the state with 6-12 south 

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Ha OK. Might as well get into work late since the forecast is done!

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:54 PM, CT Rain said:

Ha OK. Might as well get into work late since the forecast is done!

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Just get me some on air time. The public is demanding it 

[JC-CT]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:56 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Just get me some on air time. The public is demanding it 

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Just tell me how much for tolland! No not the center of town, the weenie hill where 50 people live!

[Hoth]

Can anyone opine on this idea of the initial primary occluding and jumping east? Is that why the Euro has that weird lower QPF output in CT? Just sort of rots that initial push and reforms in eastern Mass?

[dryslot]

  On 3/6/2018 at 11:48 AM, CoastalWx said:

After Dryslot's meltdown yesterday, he looks to do well. 

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If i melted, It would be felt down in the Mid Atlantic forum.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Hunter mountain Jack

[moneypitmike]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:53 PM, CoastalWx said:

Interior SNE would do well. However, it's also sort of at the end of the run and RGEM reliability sometimes isn't the greatest. Overall I feel this is an interior SNE event. Thinking interior NE MA through NW RI and much of CT away from SE part of state. I understand the euro is colder and east, but I can't help but think it may come west so I am not sold on a snowy outcome near BOS at this time. Best chance for them is in 2nd half of storm. Hopefully the 12z stuff comes east.

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This is my fear about going to Pit2.  I think there's a strong likelihood that it will tone that east position down a bit along with some qpf/dynamics that Pit2 is currently on the eastern edge of.  I'm thinking 12-18" Berks to Hubb to Dendrite to Jeff, tone down from there as you head SE with pretty steady drops as you head SE of 91/90.  Still solid warning event for NE CT, Kev.

[TalcottWx]

At least I'm not JC-CT's victim this storm

[dryslot]

But after reading the last several pages, There are several on the verge of a melt this morning.

[tamarack]

From GYX morning AFD:

With mid level
low tracks in this area...parts of Srn NH and coastal Wrn ME are
favored for a potentially major snowfall. Increasing
frontogenesis will already be ramping up the forcing for ascent
Wed afternoon...but as the mid level lows deepen deformation
will be increasing along and NW of their path. This will likely
lead to some intense banding for interior parts of New England.
The best combination of Atlantic inflow...upper dynamics...and
QPF favors Srn NH for the highest snowfall totals.

06 GFS pounds the ASH-PSM-SFM region with 2-2.5" qpf.  50 miles north and it's an inch less.  (Still enough for double digits)

[CT Valley Snowman]

Argument is to blend vs. toss GFS, GEFS.  Personally I think the Euro is a bit too far east, GFS too far west and a compromise which is good for most of the interior is the most likely but will have to watch 12z.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/6/2018 at 1:05 PM, dryslot said:

If i melted, It would be felt down in the Mid Atlantic forum.

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They would tell you they already feeling the melting polar ice.

[WintersComing]

Lol. Can’t make this chit up.


.

[JC-CT]

  On 3/6/2018 at 1:11 PM, sbos_wx said:

At least I'm not JC-CT's victim this storm

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Not yet 

There's no business like snow business. All in good fun.

[Sn0waddict]

  On 3/6/2018 at 1:12 PM, CTValleySnowMan said:

Argument is to blend vs. toss GFS, GEFS.  Personally I think the Euro is a bit too far east, GFS too far west and a compromise which is good for most of the interior is the most likely but will have to watch 12z.  

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I think we should just take the 06z Hi res Canadian and go with that.  What a weenie run. 

[JC-CT]

  On 3/6/2018 at 1:14 PM, Sn0waddict said:

I think we should just take the 06z Hi res Canadian and go with that.  What a weenie run. 

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Lol gezus. 

I like how the rgem gives NYC 2'. Fun forecast down there. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/6/2018 at 1:14 PM, Sn0waddict said:

I think we should just take the 06z Hi res Canadian and go with that.  What a weenie run. 

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Holy moly, take em off!

[Sn0waddict]

  On 3/6/2018 at 1:18 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Holy moly, take em off!

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It still snowing at the end of the run too lol wish I could put some trust into it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ideally for ffd nhvn counties you want it tucked with a block. Get the low to ride north along NJ coast then have it roll east as the block works its magic. Boxing day is a prime example, it just occluded a tick too early. 

[EastonSN+]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:47 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And the rest of SNE?

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25 inches for NYC.

Good for route 8 west and north.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 9:32 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Days and days and days 

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Yea that's a very interesting Vort max rotating through on the Euro, in fact over 10 days there are 5 strong vort maxes , crazy

[DomNH]

12-20'' looks good here barring any late changes. Second March in a row with a 12''+ storm if this works out after seemingly forever without one.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/6/2018 at 1:26 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Yea that's a very interesting Vort max rotating through on the Euro, in fact over 10 days there are 5 strong vort maxes , crazy

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I would not be shocked if one sparks a little low and drops 2-4” or something somewhere.

[Ginx snewx]

lock it up, seriously, above 6 inch progs never get this high 36 hrs out

[CoastalWx]

So many EC members are snowy in ern areas. I would love for the EC to give the GFS one big massive steaming dump on the face.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 1:31 PM, CoastalWx said:

So many EC members are snowy in ern areas. I would love for the EC to give the GFS one big massive steaming dump on the face.

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Has to be some climo algo built into the GFS

[jbenedet]

 

AWT

  On 3/5/2018 at 7:44 PM, jbenedet said:

My best guess in terms of track, intensity RA/SN line and max snowfall area/total.

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  On 3/6/2018 at 1:29 PM, Ginx snewx said:

lock it up, seriously, above 6 inch progs never get this high 36 hrs out

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