Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:09 PM, WintersComing said:

Uggh. Hate to see Ryan’s station fall into the windshield wiper effect. Just cut their totals


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What?  No they didn’t.

[SnowGoose69]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:13 PM, jbenedet said:

My take is the track inland towards ACY makes sense, but GFS beyond that point is  questionable. I think the euro handling of the kick east is superior. Basically the track I put out yesterday afternoon is a 50/50 blend of the 6z GFS and the 0z Euro, and that’s what I still think will verify. 

6z GFS is also weakest solution so it’s a worst case scenario for the subforum. I think it’s OTL intensity wise. 

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Because the system sort of occludes the kick into NJ is worse than it would ordinarily be.  Typically we would get pounded here once the kick east occurs as would most of CT but because the semi occlusion the back edge probably dies as that low kicks out 

[WintersComing]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:14 PM, CT Rain said:

We did?

Sorry didn’t mean cut back. My bad. Should have said bumped everything west


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[codfishsnowman]

so glad i won't be glued to this today as i am very busy....i will check in later

its kinda all about tomorrow as next weeks event looks wet....playing with fire here at this point in the season without arctic air

reading box discussion there are even more flags....valley down sloping etc which i thought might not be as bad this time

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:06 PM, JC-CT said:

Euro gets 0 weight?

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Cranky old lady at it again.

[WintersComing]

Just not buying that GFS run. Hate to see it come back at 12 z and then have to bump or slide back over


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[CT Rain]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:18 PM, WintersComing said:

Sorry didn’t mean cut back. My bad. Should have said bumped everything west


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I think we actually increased totals. The 8-14 contour got dragged south into coastal Fairfield co.

[Hoth]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:12 PM, JC-CT said:

GFS is like 20 miles west at most of other guidance. 

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GEFS also had the last storm going over Poughkeepsie at one point and several cycles into eastern CT. Not exactly reliable.

[Buddy1987]

If we are going to knit pick, I believe Darren has the 4-8'' line way to north and west. He will need to adjust that imo to the south/southeast. No way Naugatuck line and some 10 miles southeast of them have a minimum of 4'' only. 

[JC-CT]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:19 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cranky old lady at it again.

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Your defense mechanism of calling me names every time I disagree with something or point out something you didn't consider is getting old fast. I call it like it is.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:19 PM, codfishsnowman said:

so glad i won't be glued to this today as i am very busy....i will check in later

its kinda all about tomorrow as next weeks event looks wet....playing with fire here at this point in the season without arctic air

reading box discussion there are even more flags....valley down sloping etc which i thought might not be as bad this time

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???  BOX has you 12"+

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:22 PM, Hoth said:

GEFS also had the last storm going over Poughkeepsie at one point and several cycles into eastern CT. Not exactly reliable.

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70/30 euro/gfs & nam blend is the way to go. Prob leads to a UK type look.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:23 PM, JC-CT said:

Your defense mechanism of calling me names every time I disagree with something or point out something you didn't consider is getting old fast. I call it like it is.

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See post above. Your nitpicking posts gets old fast.

[Hoth]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:19 PM, codfishsnowman said:

so glad i won't be glued to this today as i am very busy....i will check in later

its kinda all about tomorrow as next weeks event looks wet....playing with fire here at this point in the season without arctic air

reading box discussion there are even more flags....valley down sloping etc which i thought might not be as bad this time

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It gon' rain.

[jbenedet]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:16 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

Because the system sort of occludes the kick into NJ is worse than it would ordinarily be.  Typically we would get pounded here once the kick east occurs as would most of CT but because the semi occlusion the back edge probably dies as that low kicks out 

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I don’t really see it dying out per se. There’s a lot of vorticity in that trough. To my mind the phasing happens more gradually —due to the Cut off low near the Lakes —rather than all at once so the system remains in a quasi-steady state intensity-wise as it kicks east.

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:19 PM, codfishsnowman said:

so glad i won't be glued to this today as i am very busy....i will check in later

its kinda all about tomorrow as next weeks event looks wet....playing with fire here at this point in the season without arctic air

reading box discussion there are even more flags....valley down sloping etc which i thought might not be as bad this time

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You need to move...plain and simple!

[JC-CT]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:25 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

See post above. Your nitpicking posts gets old fast.

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The euro isn't 12-18 north and west of the river. South and west maybe, in your hood. It is not that much qpf for the berks area.

[moneypitmike]

From GYX:

The 06.00z GFS is the only model that
continues to warm the lowest 2 km until after 06z Thu...reaching
as high as +3 to 4C. All other model guidance pins wet bulb
temps just above 0C near the coast and holds them there until
after 00z Thu...when temps begin to fall in the truly heavy
precip. Given that temps aloft are plenty cold and heavy precip
will be moving in...my preference is to ignore the GFS low level
thermal profile in favor of the rest of the guidance...including
what was available of the high-res NAM. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:26 PM, JC-CT said:

The euro isn't 12-18 north and west of the river. South and west maybe, in your hood. It is not that much qpf for the berks area.

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You stick with qpf and surface maps. See how far that gets you.

[WintersComing]

Day before a storm is always fun around here lol


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[WintersComing]

Think it’s always been a safe call that most of CT sees 6-12 little bit less maybe far SE. I’m sure we’ll see but higher amounts 84 and west.


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[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:26 PM, JC-CT said:

The euro isn't 12-18 north and west of the river. South and west maybe, in your hood. It is not that much qpf for the berks area.

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NWS BOX and Albany wrong?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

If all anyone did is use euro qpf and vendor clown maps to forecast big east coast snowstorms past several years, they’d look very bad. Jan 15, Jan 16, Mar 17, and even this past Friday toa lesser extent. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:32 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

NWS BOX and Albany wrong?

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I dunno what hes trying to accomplish. I see 12-18” out west in many forecasts. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What did rgem have at 6z?

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:41 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What did rgem have at 6z?

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Tucky, but would be a good solution for you.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 3/6/2018 at 11:57 AM, CT Rain said:

Kevin’s on the verge of a meltdown after the 6z runs. Slot risk for Tolland!

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I’ll stick with the EPS/ Euro / Ukie/ Reggie suite thanks 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:45 PM, CoastalWx said:

Tucky, but would be a good solution for you.

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And the rest of SNE?

[wx2fish]

  On 3/6/2018 at 12:45 PM, CoastalWx said:

Tucky, but would be a good solution for you.

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Tucked but alot colder than the gfs. More realistic imo 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I like the evolution of systems with regionwide hits. Sure I want as much as I can get, to maximize a storm. But I am also a giver, a sharer of snows.