Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[weathafella]

Elomgates out.  925 reach maybe in shore areas up to Boston for a brief time.

[weathafella]

Eastern areas 1.5-2 qpf through 72 hours urs.

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:06 AM, weathafella said:

Elomgates out.  925 reach maybe in shore areas up to Boston for a brief time.

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That's a 1'-2' run I think.

[OceanStWx]

Still waiting on 00z to dump into AWIPS, but the 12z Euro and 00z GFS take just about the golden path from Kevin to ORH to coastal ME. 

Mid level centers more or less in agreement tracking over ACK. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks identical, but more precip.

[weathafella]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks identical, but more precip.

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Bingo 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like it nukes a hair further south, targeting NE/NC MA and se NH more, as opposed to sw ME.

[DiehardFF]

Even new haven does well...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jacks outside rt 128 back to ORH.

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:08 AM, OceanStWx said:

Still waiting on 00z to dump into AWIPS, but the 12z Euro and 00z GFS take just about the golden path from Kevin to ORH to coastal ME. 

Mid level centers more or less in agreement tracking over ACK. 

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7h I'd say a little further west of that in terms of deform magic. Yes, they're close, but maybe Hartford to northern ORH county

[40/70 Benchmark]

Def. ticked colder...much better for borderline spots like Taunton.

[weathafella]

NYC/NJ does well.

[TalcottWx]

The low level stuff really smokes BOS and the suburbs Ray etc N RI, plus you'll have aid from the coastal front in that area. Mid levels are definitely west.

Either way it's a great storm for everyone. Widespread smokage imho.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:12 AM, sbos_wx said:

7h I'd say a little further west of that in terms of deform magic. Yes, they're close, but maybe Hartford to northern ORH county

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Manchester, NH, HubbDave to HFD

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:13 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. ticked colder...much better for borderline spots like Taunton.

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Good... going to be close here... I could see 4” of slop or 20” of paste... both totally plausible.

 

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:15 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Manchester, NH, HubbDave to HFD

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Exactly. Berks do great also. This is a widespread smokage. 

Seems like the type of scenario the CF gets to 128 for a time and then collapses back. I don't buy it going much further NW than that.

[OceanStWx]

The 00z Euro is also just a hair stronger than the GFS across the board in the mid levels.

 

[weathafella]

And the system can’t negotiate the block so some Fuji action.   Euro hints at this for some mood snow lingering through Friday.

[78Blizzard]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:15 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Good... going to be close here... I could see 4” of slop or 20” of paste... both totally plausible.

 

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925 0C line only gets to a Marshfield-Fall River line.

[8611Blizz]

When is the heaviest for the coast according to the Euro?  T.i.a.

[78Blizzard]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:20 AM, 78Blizzard said:

925 0C line only gets to a Marshfield-Fall River line.

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Just got a look for myself.... Euro is easily the coldest model.  10 miles NW of the canal and it’s a pasting 

that would be a nuke here

[OceanStWx]

Despite the GFS and Euro in agreement on mid level tracks and within 2 dm of each other strength-wise, they are nothing like each other thermally.

GFS is like 1.5 degrees C warmer at 00z Thu at 925 mb. Euro -1.5 at BOS, GFS 0C. 

[OceanStWx]

Pretty fascinating evolution of the max wet bulb in the lowest 2 km.

At 18z Wed the GFS and Euro are nearly a perfect match. Roll ahead 6 hours and we diverge. The GFS continues to warm, while the Euro locks down the wet bulbs in place and is cooler by 06z. 

[OceanStWx]

The GFS is the only model that is significantly warming the boundary layer after the heavy precip starts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I still can't see any reason to go higher than 12-18"...some were getting carried away earlier, mentioning like 24-30".

[#NoPoles]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:33 AM, OceanStWx said:

The GFS is the only model that is significantly warming the boundary layer after the heavy precip starts.

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Stupid question, but is this similar to the last storm, where instead of cooling like most anticipated, it seemed like some warm air wrapped in?

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:44 AM, #NoPoles said:

Stupid question, but is this similar to the last storm, where instead of cooling like most anticipated, it seemed like some warm air wrapped in?

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Big difference is we have a filling Midwest upper low, with a secondary low developing quickly south of New England. The last event we drove a pretty strong primary into the block before the secondary development occurred.

[OceanStWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:38 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still can't see any reason to go higher than 12-18"...some were getting carried away earlier, mentioning like 24-30".

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12z EPS probability of 18+ was pretty paltry (10-15%). That seems like a good right goal post to me, just need to figure out what's on the left now.

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:44 AM, #NoPoles said:

Stupid question, but is this similar to the last storm, where instead of cooling like most anticipated, it seemed like some warm air wrapped in?

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Waaaaay colder than the last one. Which is great.