Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[The 4 Seasons]

This is much better than there other map.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/6/2018 at 4:34 AM, Spanks45 said:

It's like scoring the winning touchdown too early, knowing that you just gave Tom Brady over a minute left to do his thing....

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Obv I’m being a weenie. No model gives us less than like a foot, there is a good margin for error where west zones still get a great storm. Just not sure how much better this can get. Maybe qpf can ramp up a tick lol.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/6/2018 at 4:37 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Then you knock the ball out of his hand?

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Swat slap?

 

[WinterWolf]

  On 3/6/2018 at 4:42 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Obv I’m being a weenie. No model gives us less than like a foot, there is a good margin for error where west zones still get a great storm. Just not sure how much better this can get. Maybe qpf can ramp up a tick lol.

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This has been very stable on guidance for quite a while also...that’s a great thing.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 4:43 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Swat slap?

 

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Um that's baseball bro

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/6/2018 at 4:47 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Um that's baseball bro

 

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But just as embarrassing.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/6/2018 at 4:45 AM, WinterWolf said:

This has been very stable on guidance for quite a while also...that’s a great thing.

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Yup. OK ill wake up at 110am somehow with my internal clock telling me it’s time for a looksy. I don’t expect anything shocking but its nice to be reassured.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/6/2018 at 4:50 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. OK ill wake up at 110am somehow with my internal clock telling me it’s time for a looksy. I don’t expect anything shocking but reassurance is a good thing. 

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We know 12z tomorrow if this is finally our storm.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ukie

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/6/2018 at 4:58 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ukie

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[STILL N OF PIKE]

thanks Will

is that close to 12z

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 3/6/2018 at 5:00 AM, ORH_wxman said:

 

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Still pretty much congrats everyone in SNE.

[78Blizzard]

  On 3/6/2018 at 5:10 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Still pretty much congrats everyone in SNE.

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Can't see between hr 48 and hr 60 on Ukie to see how far N the 850 0C line gets.  At hr 48 it was about in the same position as the GFS.  No access to 925 temps.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/6/2018 at 5:33 AM, 78Blizzard said:

Can't see between hr 48 and hr 60 on Ukie to see how far N the 850 0C line gets.  At hr 48 it was about in the same position as the GFS.  No access to 925 temps.

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850 is fine for pretty much everyone off the cape on on models. It’s 925 where the issues are

[TalcottWx]

8-14" first guess BOS

[weathafella]

  On 3/6/2018 at 5:51 AM, sbos_wx said:

8-14" first guess BOS

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Agree.

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 4:48 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

But just as embarrassing.

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More embarassing. 

Not sure how I'll ever live with the five Super Bowls Pats won this century already

[78Blizzard]

What was Harvey's Boston forecast?

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 5:52 AM, weathafella said:

Agree.

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You up to Ray, basically anywhere inside the suburbs of BOS, looks really good. Not sure here yet. But history tells me we probably have nothing to worry about with this track.

[weathafella]

  On 3/6/2018 at 5:53 AM, sbos_wx said:

You up to Ray, basically anywhere inside the suburbs of BOS, looks really good. Not sure here yet. But history tells me we probably have nothing to worry about with this track.

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Yeah I’m feeling pretty good about this one.

[TalcottWx]

Euro running. Going to check it out and then go to bed.

[TalcottWx]

Slightly more tucky early on. Might be a little closer to the coast than the previous run. We shall see how it evolves over next few frames.

[weathafella]

54 hours. Epic.

[MarkO]

  On 3/6/2018 at 5:53 AM, 78Blizzard said:

What was Harvey's Boston forecast?

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He thought Boston might start as rain, then go quickly over to wet snow. Stays all snow Boston NW, mix south shore, but he kept totals conservative/low. I think it was about 4" for Boston proper.

[DiehardFF]

Euro with much more expansive QPF field.

[TalcottWx]

Looks like it destroys western areas for sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:02 AM, sbos_wx said:

Slightly more tucky early on. Might be a little closer to the coast than the previous run. We shall see how it evolves over next few frames.

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It will probably be negated by an eastward shunt.

[weathafella]

Euro validates jays forecast for Boston if not more.

[TalcottWx]

This is going to be an absolute crusher for almost all of SNE

[TalcottWx]

  On 3/6/2018 at 6:04 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It will probably be negated by an eastward shunt.

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That trof at 5h is pretty epic.