Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There midlevels seem to try and transition more east in the middle of the storm after an initial tuck west...though the qpf min might be somewhat overdone. I don't think there's any real obvious dryslots, but the banding may jump a little.

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Are we safe down here on the euro? On mobile. 00z was a paste job.

[WintersComing]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:11 PM, CT Rain said:

Local min over CT with two maxes in QPF - one SW and one NE. 

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Whats causing that gap in the qpf?

[dryslot]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:12 PM, JC-CT said:

Bigger question mark is probably how it meanders up near you.

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It sat at 43.5/69 for 9 hrs..............., That drops a 20 spot here.

[moneypitmike]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:15 PM, dryslot said:

It sat at 43.5/69 for 9 hrs...............

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Does it get to Maine or should be staying put in GC?  Oh the dilemma! 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:15 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Are we safe down here on the euro? On mobile. 00z was a paste job.

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It's close...your area over eastward to the south shore is def going to have some issues I think, but it just depends on how bad they are and how long. Very close.

[dryslot]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:15 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Are we safe down here on the euro? On mobile. 00z was a paste job.

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Looks like you get cut back some with that further west track but it still looks like paste for you.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:13 PM, CoastalWx said:

No you don't. You are sweet there according to what I see. Any closer and you lose the RH in the mid levels.

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No, my bad, I meant we have 2 days to go for final outcome. Not that I want more west ticks lol.

[dryslot]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:18 PM, moneypitmike said:

Does it get to Maine or should be staying put in GC?  Oh the dilemma! 

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I had 20" that run and pit2 is about the same, Foot or so back to pit1.

[WintersComing]

QPF is showing 1" for 2/3rds of CT but snow totals don't seem to be showing that kind of output.

[powderfreak]

Man I'll take that Euro run all day long.

Mid-level banding delight.  Even shows in the QPF fields at 78 ha.

[wxsniss]

Good hit for entire I95 corridor

H5 on Euro past 3 runs has ticked towards earlier and earlier capture... the extreme extrapolation of that is NAM which would bring best dynamics and big hit to Philly-NYC, while still kicking east before it reaches SNE

NAM was not completely out to lunch...?

[CoastalWx]

99 problems, but QPF ain't one.

[powderfreak]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:22 PM, CoastalWx said:

99 problems, but QPF ain't one.

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Is it ever?  lol when was the last time you worried about QPF .

[dryslot]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:22 PM, powderfreak said:

Man I'll take that Euro run all day long.

Mid-level banding delight.  Even shows in the QPF fields at 78 ha.

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Nice hit your way with that track.

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:24 PM, powderfreak said:

Is it ever?  lol when was the last time you worried about QPF .

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In the summer when I'm death ridged.

[snowdazed]

I could use some advice.  Given current trends, should I plan to work from home on Wednesday?  Or go in to the office & leave early?

(I'm in W. Kent County, RI.  My office is in Johnston)

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nothing to cry home about there for most.  Like Will stated earlier, with ML track such as the Euro its difficult to get rain more than 10-15 from the coast.

[dryslot]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:24 PM, powderfreak said:

Is it ever?  lol when was the last time you worried about QPF .

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Nothing to sneeze at there with 1.8" or so.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:22 PM, CoastalWx said:

99 problems, but QPF ain't one.

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I wonder if this is the Rt 128 storm Ray has been waiting for...where he's pounding paste at 31-32 and you're struggling in Weymouth....you know he's been dying for one of those.

[wxsniss]

Text soundings from 12z GFS hour 66 in KBOS... gonna be close but those rates should get us a pasting:

Date: 66 hour AVN valid 6Z THU  8 MAR 18
Station: 42.37,-71.02
Latitude:   42.37
Longitude: -71.02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   -32                                                                 
SFC  991    44   4.0   2.9  93  1.1   3.5  49  16 277.9 278.7 277.1 290.8  4.75
  2  950   384   1.9   1.6  98  0.3   1.8  54  36 279.2 279.9 277.4 291.6  4.52
  3  900   818  -0.5  -0.6 100  0.0  -0.6  62  44 281.0 281.7 277.8 292.3  4.07
  4  850  1274  -2.4  -2.5  99  0.1  -2.4  74  47 283.6 284.3 278.7 294.2  3.74
  5  800  1754  -4.2  -4.3  99  0.1  -4.3  85  46 286.6 287.2 279.8 296.6  3.46
  6  750  2261  -6.2  -6.3  99  0.1  -6.2  97  42 289.8 290.4 281.0 299.1  3.18
  7  700  2798  -8.8  -8.8 100  0.1  -8.8 106  40 292.8 293.3 281.8 301.1  2.80

[kdxken]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There midlevels seem to try and transition more east in the middle of the storm after an initial tuck west...though the qpf min might be somewhat overdone. I don't think there's any real obvious dryslots, but the banding may jump a little.

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 What is the cause of the East movement ? Thanks 

[powderfreak]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:25 PM, dryslot said:

Nice hit your way with that track.

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I do like the look of the large circulation for a western band way out.  That's why the EURO track works here and the NAM track puts it over like central New York from BGM to SLK, lol.

Ramp up some ratios in that thing hopefully for the powder hounds. Can clearly see it on the QPF fields going up VT, removed from the other area of forcing closer to the coast.  Probably a nice deform band running up western New England.

 

[tunafish]

yowzers

[Ginx snewx]

Clowny mappies

[Ginx snewx]

for the Uptown girls

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:26 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I wonder if this is the Rt 128 storm Ray has been waiting for...where he's pounding paste at 31-32 and you're struggling in Weymouth....you know he's been dying for one of those.

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It could be. I know he wants to borrow N Korea's nuke and aim them SE towards me. 

[kdxken]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:18 PM, moneypitmike said:

Does it get to Maine or should be staying put in GC?  Oh the dilemma! 

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Maine

[ORH_wxman]

  On 3/5/2018 at 6:28 PM, kdxken said:

 What is the cause of the East movement ? Thanks 

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When H5 closes off...it sort of gets drawn east with the max height falls...this is the block to our north at work helping force the action. The natural tendency is for the heights to want to just keep going nuclear to the northeast, but it runs into resistance so it will take the path of least resistance more to the ENE....so the upper low starts to get elongated a bit in a E-W format. In addition, the main ULL in the lakes is helping along to sort of acting as a kicker...fujiwara...it doesn't allow the ULL to tuck back N as much because of the fujiwara interaction...it needs to swing out eastward.

 

So just how much each of these elements plays a role will help determine the final track. For our area, the best scenario is a very rapid deepening of the upper low while get pushed eastward from S of LI...sort of like the 12z GFS. We'd just get shellacked for about 24-30 hours in that scenario.

[CoastalWx]

The euro verbatim is like 33-35 degrees the whole time here. Those weenie algorithms follow the 925 isotherm nicely near PYM.  You could argue Tw to near 32, but man that is close.

[rimetree]

So far we look good for up to 18 here depending on how where/how much it slows down. Do we see this as all paste or will this get colder and transition to a fluffier snow?