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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek


Typhoon Tip

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  On 3/5/2018 at 6:01 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You know I have little clue about enso and how it affects tracks along the EC. Only the greats like yourself can tell us. 

I have a good reason for my call here, Lets see what happens. 

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You could be right...we'll see. All I meant is that blocking and later phasing are not mutually exclusive.

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Interesting observations from our friends at WPC re the MDD, which I have bold below : 

 

"....Model spread with the entire system is mostly centered on the East Coast/nor'easter evolution. The 12Z NAM gradually focuses its low center a bit west of the model consensus, with the 00Z CMC AND 00Z ECMWF farthest east. The 12Z GFS and 00Z UKMET split the difference, with the GFS a bit west of the UKMET. There has been some westward trending of the NAM and GFS guidance over the last 24 hours, and also the GEFS members from 06Z. This is likely related to the details of a persistent and relatively strong blocking ridge over eastern Canada. It is feasible that some additional westward shifting of the guidance may occur, and especially as it relates to the low track relative to New England since the guidance maintains this blocking pattern. Also, the guidance takes the closed low feature dropping south over Ontario down to the southeast toward the Ohio Valley by Thursday which may help to back the large scale flow enough for the New England closed low/nor'easter to track farther left. Overall, WPC is favoring a general model blend through 36 hours, and then a solution very close to the 12Z GFS thereafter...."

 
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  On 3/5/2018 at 6:11 PM, CT Rain said:

Local min over CT with two maxes in QPF - one SW and one NE. 

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There midlevels seem to try and transition more east in the middle of the storm after an initial tuck west...though the qpf min might be somewhat overdone. I don't think there's any real obvious dryslots, but the banding may jump a little.

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  On 3/5/2018 at 6:04 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is going to annihilate eastern areas prob...its a bit east of the GFS.

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I've seen a few forecasts showing rain pretty far back into eastern 1/4 of CT, cutting up north of Providence, keeping snow totals down.   It seems like forecasts like this just stick to one model solution vs. true met input.  

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