Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If this one goes awry, I'm closing the blog and calling it a season.

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LOL, I would not worry. You'd get a good pasting on the GFS,

[Hoth]

Congrats Atlantic City on that run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

LOL, I would not worry. You'd get a good pasting on the GFS,

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Glad we have gotten away from the pixie dust....hopefully I can beat Taunton for once...

[Typhoon Tip]

just fwiw - here is the GFS 850 mb temperature layout while it's engulfing the better part of the region within that rain ball at 90 hours:

[Southshorewx]

  On 3/4/2018 at 12:15 PM, moneypitmike said:

What's the temp at 10K?

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Copper mountain 39°f that's all I really care about. 

[dryslot]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:16 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

just fwiw - here is the GFS 850 mb temperature layout while it's engulfing the better part of the region within that rain ball at 90 hours:

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I think its the warm tongue at 925mb that becomes problematic on the GFS run.

 

[wxeyeNH]

Here is the total qpf from the 12Z GFS.  There was a bit of talk last night about how the GFS over amps precip over terrain areas.  I am always in the qpf hole in my location (marked with an X) and it drives me nuts.  Seems like the Worcester hills also get more precip but maybe that is correct with rising relief.  Up in my hood it makes it really hard for me to determine what my qpf will be with areas around me almost always modeled to get more.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

A great met once told me, “As long as your within reasonable distance on the nw side of a developing 850 track, do not worry about qpf.” 

[dryslot]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:27 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agreat met once told me, “As long as your within reasonable distance on the nw side of a developing 850 track, do not worry about qpf.” 

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I wonder if that was the same one that told me to beware of the warming aloft?

[weatherbear5]

I don't like the trend to get that Canadian S/W more intimately involved. Seems to me like it's shifting the mass of the system northwestward and preventing the piece that's actually the ULL from really cranking near the coast allowing the system to really explode.

at least, that's the way it seems to me

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:29 PM, dryslot said:

I wonder if that was the same one that told me to beware of the warming aloft?

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Is it the same one who told me that you start high with snow amounts because it gives you the ability to adjust higher when needed?

[moneypitmike]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:21 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Here is the total qpf from the 12Z GFS.  There was a bit of talk last night about how the GFS over amps precip over terrain areas.  I am always in the qpf hole in my location (marked with an X) and it drives me nuts.  Seems like the Worcester hills also get more precip but maybe that is correct with rising relief.  Up in my hood it makes it really hard for me to determine what my qpf will be with areas around me almost always modeled to get more.

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Congrats coastal Maine.  We need it.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:21 PM, dryslot said:

I think its the warm tongue at 925mb that becomes problematic on the GFS run.

 

 

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Fwiw - that's not really warm enough for rain in this synoptic set up, NW of ~ Plymouth

[dryslot]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:33 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw - that's not really warm enough for rain in this synoptic set up, NW of ~ Plymouth

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I would tend to agree, Its not like the one the other day that couldn't overcome +2c with those easterly winds.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:33 PM, moneypitmike said:

Congrats coastal Maine.  We need it.

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Yea, drought season will be tougher without this rain.

[moneypitmike]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:33 PM, moneypitmike said:

Congrats coastal Maine.  We need it.

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Congrats cancel.....looks like a lot of that in rain (though i may be misreading).

[Logan11]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:21 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Here is the total qpf from the 12Z GFS.  There was a bit of talk last night about how the GFS over amps precip over terrain areas.  I am always in the qpf hole in my location (marked with an X) and it drives me nuts.  Seems like the Worcester hills also get more precip but maybe that is correct with rising relief.  Up in my hood it makes it really hard for me to determine what my qpf will be with areas around me almost always modeled to get more.

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The GFS likes to make little sucker holes all over now in it's attempt to show every minutia of oro effects. That might be a fiction.

Another foot fr me if the GFS was correct.

 

[dryslot]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:38 PM, moneypitmike said:

Congrats cancel.....looks like a lot of that in rain (though i may be misreading).

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A lot of that is snow as well.

[toller65]

I'll gladly take 12" of paste

[mreaves]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:33 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw - that's not really warm enough for rain in this synoptic set up, NW of ~ Plymouth

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Diane just smashed her computer and walked away in disgust. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:38 PM, moneypitmike said:

Congrats cancel.....looks like a lot of that in rain (though i may be misreading).

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I was joshing. gfs is overly warm which we think is false. anyway, no reason to sweat details 3-4 days out.

[wxeyeNH]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:39 PM, Logan11 said:

The GFS likes to make little sucker holes all over now in it's attempt to show every minutia of oro effects. That might be a fiction.

Another foot fr me if the GFS was correct.

 

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Thank for the reply Logan.  It's been a long time since I've said hi.  Hope you enjoyed that dump the other day.  Might as well add to it!

[powderfreak]

That's some mid-level magic back in VT and eastern NY on that GFS run.

Just lights it up.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:36 PM, dryslot said:

I would tend to agree, Its not like the one the other day that couldn't overcome +2c with those easterly winds.

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Right ...

See, not that you asked ...or need this pointed out or anything, but the last system was really kind of insidious in the way that it masked the GFS low level ...what I would adjective with 'egregious' warm bias.  The GFS was going to print rain for that system regardless of whether it snowed or not... so it rained, and the GFS looks brilliant - ah...yeeeah 

Just as it's attempting to do now... We'll see.  But this is better test scenario for its bias. Antecedent set up bears almost no resemblance to that last system... So if folks are perhaps jaded by that... try not to be.  It may rain? It might - okay..it's post March 1, which is an annual apocalypse to winter weather enthusiasts, anyway... so yar... rain is sort of a standard base-line probability.

Excluding climo, the synoptics really do connote a colder profile ...particularly when dynamics comes into play and so forth.

[powderfreak]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:46 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Thank for the reply Logan.  It's been a long time since I've said hi.  Hope you enjoyed that dump the other day.  Might as well add to it!

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Don't worry about that stuff.... the GFS is way too heavily terrain enhanced as we were talking about the other day.

Sometimes it makes sense in say strong low level upslope patterns but for synoptic precipitation it takes it too far.

[powderfreak]

  On 3/4/2018 at 3:57 PM, dryslot said:

12z GGEM is a whiff right.

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GGEM says what storm?

Partly cloudy day.  That's not even close.

[Logan11]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:46 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Thank for the reply Logan.  It's been a long time since I've said hi.  Hope you enjoyed that dump the other day.  Might as well add to it!

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Hey Gene!  Yep we go   back to the ancient IRC days on the mid/late 90's.  I think this one will be better for you as it rides the coast  further up on most models.

[dendrite]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:21 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Here is the total qpf from the 12Z GFS.  There was a bit of talk last night about how the GFS over amps precip over terrain areas.  I am always in the qpf hole in my location (marked with an X) and it drives me nuts.  Seems like the Worcester hills also get more precip but maybe that is correct with rising relief.  Up in my hood it makes it really hard for me to determine what my qpf will be with areas around me almost always modeled to get more.

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It may be a little overdone, but I’d say it is mostly real. Strong, deep NE flow for you is kind of a killer.

[SnowGoose69]

UKMET looks like it tracks from just off ORF to over the Cape maybe but it doesn’t bomb the system much.  1003 to 990 in 24 hours 

[dryslot]

  On 3/4/2018 at 4:52 PM, dendrite said:

It may be a little overdone, but I’d say it is mostly real. Strong, deep NE flow for you is kind of a killer.

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Is he getting down sloped off the presidentials?