Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Typhoon Tip]

We were missing the Euro backing from this week's assessment, prior to this 12z cycle today, but ... as most are aware, that source has emphatically joined the fray.

The operational guidance choices are (centered on 12z Wednesday):

 

As you can see ... there is, for all intents and purposes, fantastic agreement/offering for what the synopsis 12z Wednesday will look like.  Really ... beyond minor petty details, we are looking at the same surface depiction there.

This event mid week is the 2nd in what is likely to be a troika of them ... yesterday being the first, and above normal confidence for another system there after.  ' Won't go into detail on the latter potential as it's just too soon to do so and the event Wednesday is obviously prevalent.

This system right now appears capable of moderate snow impact, ..perhaps augmented a little in that, as we all know, powdered 6" totals are a different sort of ordeal compared to 6" of blue paste.  Having said that, this system should be watched as possibly becoming something more...  The following annotation is from the operational GFS, showing the mid level evolution ..and just how close that is..

This that suggest there is some chance on the table here for the N stream to subsume/phase in... That is not presently happening (though the GFS was really really close to doing so as you can see imm abv...) in these guidance' ... but, it would not take very much to perturb such a scneario into taking place. Just something to consider.  The Euro run ...tho it jump mightily on board, it does a disappearing act with that same n-stream piece that you see in the GFS, making it unclear what it's really up to in the total stream interaction.  I'm not convinced we don't see a bit more hand shake in the jets here, but either way, at least a moderately impacting event appears likely. 

 

[78Blizzard]

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in again.

Just let's not have a repeat performance.  The Euro is hitting this hard, just like they did at day 5 in the last one, only to be disappointed with the result.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in again.

Just let's not have a repeat performance.

You probably don't mean that plea in the literal sense ...but, just the same, almost no chance of that happening.

If this thing fails to bring the winter enthusiast's goods, it will be from an entirely different series of mitigating factor. The only circumstance between this last system and this next one is the NAO ..but even it's modulating so it's not ideal there.  Otherwise, there's less similarity -

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You probably don't mean that plea in the literal sense ...but, just the same, almost no chance of that happening.

If this thing fails to bring the winter enthusiast's goods, it will be from an entirely different series of mitigating factor. The only circumstance between this last system and this next one is the NAO ..but even it's modulating so it's not ideal there.  Otherwise, there's less similarity -

Not saying it's the same type of setup, but given what's been happening this winter, I'm not getting as invested in this one until I see more consistency in the later models, something that was missing in the last one for different reasons.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Not saying it's the same type of setup, but given what's been happening this winter, I'm not getting as invested in this one until I see more consistency in the later models, something that was missing in the last one for different reasons.

okay... well, just look at every situation uniquely...  I mean I agree 'trend awareness' is an important factor; but therein is part of my point, the prior trend may not be very useful here, because it's a different set of circumstances lending to it.

I suppose if we wanna get into 'fuzzy logic' like... some nights you can't seem to lose(win) at black jack .. but I'm not a big fan of angels on shoulders .... Cosmic dildo... absolutely.. just not angels and demons...hahaha

[Ginx snewx]

Subtitle can Tippy jinx 2 snowstorms in one week

[dryslot]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Subtitle can Tippy jinx 2 snowstorms in one week

If tippy jinx two in one week, Tippy won't get a crack at a third..........

[78Blizzard]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Subtitle can Tippy jinx 2 snowstorms in one week

If this snowstorm fails for whatever reason for most of us, the peeps will show no mercy for Tip.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

If this snowstorm fails for whatever reason for most of us, the peeps will show no mercy for Tip.

Certainly not the ones with the rope and chair.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Sweet EPS look at 12z today.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z gfs is pretty amped up. Looks like the low goes just south of us and over Nantucket maybe?

 

[powderfreak]

Euro EPS individuals are certainly interesting... there are a fair amount of members that clobber upstate NY again with less in New England.  Definitely more of those than whiffs on the 12z run... with the spread more west than east.

Enough of them with jacks from the Catskills to Adirondacks to really affect the mean with heavy snows way west of where you would think given the operational runs.

[dryslot]

987mb right over the elbow on the 18z GFS.

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

987mb right over the elbow

Ideal.  La la lock it in

[weathafella]

To quote a well know poster-“oh boy oh boy oh boy!”

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Ideal.  La la lock it in

I like that alot, Ideal would be about 50-75 miles east of there for the coastal peeps.

[rnaude241]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

987mb right over the elbow on the 18z GFS.

To close for me... Let's get that east a little

[weathafella]

925 taints a lot of SNE even ORH for a time.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, rnaude241 said:

To close for me... Let's get that east a little

I did an edit, It would be better for many at the coast if it tracked 50-75 mi east of CC

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

850s are pretty cold for everyone except the outer cape

[dryslot]

Nailing specifics at this range is moot anyways, Just keep that storm track in place at this point.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Verbatim it's warm up to about 900mb per the GFS.  That would not be an ideal setup for areas SE of a PVD/BOS line.  I don't buy the  rain to ORH as shown on the maps.

[jbenedet]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Euro EPS individuals are certainly interesting... there are a fair amount of members that clobber upstate NY again with less in New England.  Definitely more of those than whiffs on the 12z run... with the spread more west than east.

Enough of them with jacks from the Catskills to Adirondacks to really affect the mean with heavy snows way west of where you would think given the operational runs.

180 hr. How much of that snow out west falls after the storm has Cut-off and continues as a cut-off low? The storm itself, for all intents and purposes is over for most by 18z Thurs (~120hrs)

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, weathafella said:

To quote a well know poster-“oh boy oh boy oh boy!”

Lol.. BOX goes OH Girl all over us introducing rain for many. We toss 

[Buddy1987]

Boy, hour 102 is just a thing of beauty for CT. If I could just lock that up right now!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The precip and snow maps on gfs dont do that specific solution justice. That’s hecs for just away from the coast. But we lost yesterday by living in the mid levels so we cautious, for now.

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Verbatim it's warm up to about 900mb per the GFS.  That would not be an ideal setup for areas SE of a PVD/BOS line.  I don't buy the  rain to ORH as shown on the maps.

Yeah no ...one should not. 

Folks may be addled a bit by the last event run-up with hyper intense, exhaustive thermal nit picking that had to go on if one were to salvage snow fantasies, but what this set up has that the last one only played around with once in a while ... is much more clearly defined isothermal-type typology for spring snow evets. In this case... that rain punch really IS an artifact of the GFS low level warm bias, and if I did not see these synoptic arguments against I probably wouldn't make this statement but I'm confident.

We're waiting on this eastern Canadian impulse to spill into the ocean gyre tomorrow night ...behind which we lay a distinctly different air mass than we've seen lately... It may be offset by gaining insolation -post March 1 but it'd be a 40/12 type snow column prior to this thing rollin' up underneath...maybe a little moderation of Tuesday but not enough to change the general thickness layout... Then, the vmax mid week takes what amounts to  perfect track... 1 to 3 deg west of a negative tilter has frontogen whack written all over it.. not resolved at all at this point, but likely to occur... lots of dynamic feedback potential there.  It's just an entirely different scenario...not comparable really.

[512high]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah no ...one should not. 

Folks may be addled a bit by the last event run-up with hyper intense, exhaustive thermal nit picking that had to go on if one were to salvage snow fantasies, but what this set up has that the last one only played around with once in a while ... is much more clearly defined isothermal-type typology for spring snow evets.  This really IS an artifact of the GFS low level warm bias, and if did not see these synoptic arguments against I probably would make this statement at all.

We're waiting on this eastern Canadian impulse to spill into the ocean gyre tomorrow night ...behind which we lay a distinctly different air mass than we've seen lately... It may be offset by gaining insolation -post March 1 but it'd be a 40/12 type snow column prior to this thing rollin' up underneath...maybe a little moderation of Tuesday but not enough to change the general thickness layout... Then, the vmax mid week takes what amounts to  perfect track... 1 to 3 west of a negative tilter has frontogen whack written all over it.. not resolved at all at this point, but likely to occur... lots of dynamic feedback potential there.  It's just an entirely different scenario...not comparable really.

Hello Tip, Based on what you and others can see...quick mover?

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 512high said:

Hello Tip, Based on what you and others can see...quick mover?

Actually no...  We are still reeling from vestigial down stream blocking associated with attenuating (but not so fast...) -NAO west baser.   Even if the block gets a bit less discerned, we leave a train-wreck left over ...which is still really a manifestation of the prior circumstance if that were the case... This thing coming up underneath it is forced to slow down for that back-log/retrograde tendency lingering..

Having said that... not talking a 20 hour ordeal, or stall or anything... but, this same negative tilt system back in the fast flow era earlier in this winter would be a 4 to 6 hour ordeal. This? I'd say 12 maybe 15 as first guess as duration.

[powderfreak]

34 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

180 hr. How much of that snow out west falls after the storm has Cut-off and continues as a cut-off low? The storm itself, for all intents and purposes is over for most by 18z Thurs (~120hrs)

Still snowing on Saturday morning for the interior mountains though on the EPS mean.