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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Looks like we do this all over again mid week...

 

 

F0EEFAE9-451F-4DBA-8CA5-86C264693C99.jpeg

 
The long term period will start off quite wintry with another deep
closed low over the northeastern United States. A strong North
Atlantic low will remain well east of New England, but abundant wrap
around moisture, northwest upslope flow, and some lake enhancement
will bring the likelihood of snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday. The
setup will probably be similar to this week, with only minor
accumulations at lower elevations and the potential for moderate
accumulations across higher terrain. A similar temperature pattern
will continue through Wednesday, with temperatures running a good 5-
8 degrees below normal, with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s,
and even some teens across the Southern Tier and Lewis County.

 

 

 
Looking a little farther ahead, both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a few
days of warmer weather next weekend. This warming appears to be
temporary, with both models suggesting cold air will build back into
the Great Lakes for much of the following week

 

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Irondequoit has gotten about 8” over last 72 hrs. In the shade. It melted as soon as the sun touched it. No more than 3” increase to pack at any given time. I doubt if most people even noticed the accums other than brushing slush from their car windows. And only if they got up early or just after a squall. 

This next one looks to be a carbon copy but even later in Spring. A small twist noted over CNY noted on a few models around 78-96 hrs. Small LP might be interesting for Roc-Syr region. 

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Hazardous weather outlook 

 

 
Low pressure will move slowly northward off the New England coast
Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will be much too far east to have
any direct influence on our region, but moist northwest flow and lake
enhancement in its wake will produce periods of snow through the
middle of the week. The most persistent snow will be found across the
higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau, and also southeast of Lake
Ontario where moderate accumulations are possible
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Kbuf 

 

 
For western and north central NY, this next weather system bears a
strong resemblance to the last long-duration event from this past
Wednesday evening through Saturday morning. This said, there are
subtle differences which will influence when and where the steadiest
snow falls. One thing the past event did show is that in a moist
environment, marginally cold enough temperatures aloft can still
produce significant lake enhancement in combination with upsloping.

On Monday night, an inverted surface trough will extend from a
developing low off the mid-Atlantic coast to the upper low which
will be in the Great Lakes region. This will bring increasing
chances of snow, especially east of Lake Ontario where mid-level
winds will transport additional Atlantic moisture. This surface
trough axis will then drop southward on Tuesday as the upper low
settles near the Lower Great Lakes. This will result in a bit more
widespread snow showers on Tuesday with northwesterly winds starting
to provide some upslope and lake enhancement. Through Tuesday, snow
accumulation should be minimal (less than 2 inches) in most
locations. The exception is east and southeast of Lake Ontario where
enhancement from the inverted trough may bring several inches of
snow, possibly approaching advisory criteria.

Northwesterly winds will increase Tuesday night and Wednesday, with
increasing moisture from the coastal low. Wrap around moisture,
northwesterly upslope flow, and some lake enhancement will result in
periods of snow showers, which will have the most accumulating power
across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and on the Tug Hill.
Those that saw the greatest snow accumulations this past Thursday
night into Friday could be having deja vu come Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to run slightly below average
through this periods, with daily highs in upper 20s to low 30s, and
nightly lows in the high teens to mid 20s

 

Snow showers will likely continue southeast of the
lakes and across higher terrain Wednesday night in cold northwest
flow. The snow showers will gradually diminish Thursday and Thursday
night.
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