CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I'm good with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Not so sure about that haha..Euro OP has a MAX of 38 over the next 10 days.. Eps is mostly below avg over the next 15, obviously taken with a grain of salt in the LR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Yeah, 10 days out...might as well be next year on modeling but here's what I was looking at. Maybe ridge building coming in earnest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Gotcha, I was just looking at the text lol Yea looks warmish, after this next week I’ll be ready for spring too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I can't believe they're already dropping that horrific ****ing mixture of dirt and salt all over the place already.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 58 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I can't believe they're already dropping that horrific ****ing mixture of dirt and salt all over the place already. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Where? It's not going to snow here other than some light SNSH. Fear not, the brainstrust in Albany have i81S and I90E closed to trucks from SYR to BGM/ALB also, cuz...2-4" of snow. LOFL. #sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Pretty big bust for CNY. Sucks for them I’m sure. The models have a strong tendency to bring these EC storms too far West. It happens everytime. We gotta remember to adjust those 24-36 hr maps East by about 100 miles or so (200 this time). Winter appears to be over unless you live on the Tug. Hopefully we get one more surprise. Peace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Pretty disappointing end if this is the last of the synoptic white for this winter. Say what want about how bad the euro has dropped off but clearly it still has a leg up on the rest of the modeling as more often than not it seems to still outperform the rest. Certainly it has with this storm... atleast as it concerns upstate ny, with its consistent eastern most track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Precip is falling, but not quite sure of the type, lol! Precip shield is blossoming as well, pretty rapidly I might add, to our South and East, and I'm pretty confident that we will see some heavier returns cross the area some time this evening, through the overnight. Nam's composite reflectivity data really doesn't match up with the current surface map nor does the H850 LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 It NOT GON Snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Precip is falling, but not quite sure of the type, lol! Precip shield is blossoming as well, pretty rapidly I might add, to our South and East, and I'm pretty confident that we will see some heavier returns cross the area some time this evening, through the overnight. Nam's composite reflectivity data really doesn't match up with the current surface map nor does the H850 LP. Yes the precip over PA is solid with a good amount to the west.....I'm not counting this one out, based on the current radar picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Pretty disappointing end if this is the last of the synoptic white for this winter. Say what want about how bad the euro has dropped off but clearly it still has a leg up on the rest of the modeling as more often than not it seems to still outperform the rest. Certainly it has with this storm... atleast as it concerns upstate ny, with its consistent eastern most track. DST comes back this Sunday, so we get an extra hr of light, so snow chances will severely get diminished after this occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: DST comes back this Sunday, so we get an extra hr of light, so snow chances will severely get diminished after this occurs. Ummm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 IDK about anyone else but its legitimately snowing here, allbeit lightly, but its definitely snow thats falling and was not expecting anything till at least this afternoon at the earliest but surprise surprise an early arrival. Does it actually become the Western cut-off pt, as it continues to head West of here. Is it coming down by you CNY cause its definitely -SN here presently and it doesn't look like its a simple sn/sh either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Ummm... Did I say something wrong? I'm serious as I thought it was this upcoming weekend or am I way off base, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Did I say something wrong? I'm serious as I thought it was this upcoming weekend or am I way off base, lol? Pretty sure you are being sarcastic about the extra hour of light and snow chances...And yeah it's this weekend overnight sat/sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Don't know about anyone else but this looks interesting for the immediate Syracuse area and the surrounding villages. It seems to just be blossoming and forning overhead as it slowly moves to the West, where it gets to and how far West it gets is the magic Question right now. I'm thinking Wayne county somewhere but it looks like its going to be a very slow process to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Pretty sure you are being sarcastic about the extra hour of light and snow chances...And yeah it's this weekend overnight sat/sun. Of course cuz, as I used to rag on anyone who said such nonsense. If it snows hard enough and its cold enough aloft then itll snow whenever it wants to including into the Month of May as its happened only once or twice since I been up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Currently SN- here too. I’ve been watching the radar with interest too but didn’t want to say anything so I wouldn’t look like a , lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3k at 11am, has us snow most of the day, just doesn’t add up to much..The time period from Friday am-Friday pm has about 1/2” LE and still snowing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 It's actually looks like it has gotten a bit heavier around here as it continues to blossom into a rather large area of precip! Temp has also wet-bulbed to 31 where I am but I suspect as returns get a bit lighter we'll go over to a rn/sn mix. I'm like what I'm seeing thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: 3k at 11am, has us snow most of the day, just doesn’t add up to much..The time period from Friday am-Friday pm has about 1/2” LE and still snowing.. There also looks like there's quite a few dry areas down near SE NY around rt17 Monticello area but the Catskills are going to get absolutely demolished, seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I am focusing my energy hoping for warm noses and dryslots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Its currently 32F where I am and the dp is 27F so there's more room for a slight drop in temp due to wet-bulb processes. We should end up right around 30 -31F but only if the precip gets heavy enough will the column cool enough to get down that low, but it has to at least SN cause I'm not sure we see any S+ so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 RLMFAO Where'd the snow across the Catskills go as well as the Poconos? Does anyone in here actually think the Catshills will get 8-10" and the Poconos 3-6" if that, especially with reflectivity like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 0110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CST Wed Mar 07 2018 Areas affected...eastern PA...central and northern NJ Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071347Z - 071745Z SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely to develop later this morning. Locally higher rates (2+ inches/hour) are possible primarily after noon local time within the frontal snow band and/or convectively augmented bursts. DISCUSSION...13Z surface analysis places a sub 1000mb developing low 60 mi ESE of WAL. Temperatures are in the 32-34 degrees F range from the northern part of Chesapeake Bay to NYC. The 12Z IAD RAOB from Dulles, VA showed a temperature profile subfreezing except immediately near the surface. The 500mb temperature was -25.5 C. Looping water-vapor imagery indicates the mid-level trough was located over the central Appalachians as of 13-14Z. As this disturbance approaches the region, strong mid-level ascent associated with the trough (leading to significant columnar cooling in the mid-levels) coupled with the northern periphery of a plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates (7-8 degrees C per km) will combine and result in pockets of weak buoyancy and upright convection. Convection will increase in coverage from northern DE northeast towards the NYC area during the late morning into the early afternoon. Models indicate the development of strong frontogenetic forcing will begin primarily around or after 17Z. As the deep-layer large-scale ascent strengthens and becomes vertically juxtaposed with the intensifying frontogenesis, hourly precipitation rates will markedly increase from around 0.10 inch to 0.10-0.25 inch. Marginal surface temperatures will effectively result in a significant concern/limiting factor for the spatial coverage of 1+ inch/hour rates farther southeast across portions of NJ as a sharp rain/snow precipitation-type gradient becomes established. Eastern PA into northern NJ will likely maintain snow as the precipitation type and heavy snowfall rates will focus in a narrow corridor from the north part of PHL north-northeast into northern NJ. Higher elevations will likely attain the coldest temperatures (due to the low-level thermal profile cooling as elevation increases from sea level to 1-2 kft) and the most intense accumulation/hourly rates. Meanwhile the Nam dropped almost 3/4 of the precip over the Poconos. Just proving scientifically that the NAM clearly went to **** at 06Z and it remains there and its flat out wrong, plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Sn to at times S+ but mostly Sn right now and the flake size has indeed increased to a nice accumulating snow, if it can drop below that magical number of 32F, then we could get something going but if not we have to wait till at least this evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 33 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Sn to at times S+ but mostly Sn right now and the flake size has indeed increased to a nice accumulating snow, if it can drop below that magical number of 32F, then we could get something going but if not we have to wait till at least this evening! Window dressing snow in Syracuse itself. Not accumulating on anything despite decent flake size. March sun, warm ground, light rate, climate change, blah blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 With DST coming this will only get worse... KBGM AFD snip... A day/night trend has become established in terms of modeling with data showing a westward shift during the day and eastward shift with runs that came in during the night. Modeling has been struggling with this system, typical for miller B low tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The snowstorm is over, the sun is breaking through, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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