phoenixny Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Starting to think this is a 10 to 20 area wide starting tonight and ending Saturday morning with some lull periods. Having a hard time finding a time period with the greatest chance of warning criteria snow(barring a westward shift tomorrow afternoon and evening with heavy snow axis). Thursday night and Friday morning might be the worst around here drivewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2018030612 Top left click top analogs Gives complete breakdown of them, including notable snowfall amounts, impactful events. It's my favorite weather website. You can use it for severe weather, snowstorms, anything basically. It gives the indices relative to the upper level pattern that coincides with the synoptic storm. Correlation coefficient as well. Wow. Thanks! 00Z NAM running. The most important run of our lives...this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Went from dry to heavy snow in a matter of minutes. Big fat dendrites! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 00Z NAM has shifted track east a bit. Takes slp from ACY to over ACK/MVY. Interesting! Not good but there it is. We toss! LOL, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Yup, same here..Left nedrow with rain, got to KSyr and it was a mix, turned into all snow about 5 miles from Fulton..Car Temp has dropped from 40 to 34.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Definite toss, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Went from dry to heavy snow in a matter of minutes. Big fat dendrites! Real wet snow here...avg flake size. Ground wet but temp is 35 so...this isnt gonna accumulate much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Wow, NAM quite the dud, esp up here. In general it’s cut back qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nearpass Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Raining here right now, with a few flakes mixed in. Roof is still dripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Not much has changed here, always been a wrap around/enhancement event..Higher elevations always gonna be favored.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 There's gonna be quite a few surprises with this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 My ne.wx forecast entries. I think I went too high at PHL and BWI but other than that I'm reasonably confident. Total thru friday... CAR: 8.5 BGR: 11.0 PWM: 12.3 CON: 14 BTV: 7.1 BOS: 3 HYA: 1.3 ORH: 12.1 PVD: 4.0 BDR: 9.5 BDL: 9.8 ALB: 13.3 BGM: 6.5 ISP: 5 JFK: 7.8 ABE: 12.5 MDT: 5.5 PHL: 9.5 ACY: 0.8 EWR: 8.5 BWI: 3.5 IAD: 0 DCA: 0 SBY: 0 RIC: 0 ORF: 0 RDU: 0 bonus: SYR 5.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 00Z GFS...wow. It’s east and qpf really scaled back. My forecast is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 00Z GFS...wow. It’s east and qpf really scaled back. My forecast is toast. Most 00Z models with a sizable shift east (relatively) this late in game. NWS Albany won't be anywhere close to their 12-18 range at this rate. Especially from ALB on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stash said: Most 00Z models with a sizable shift east (relatively) this late in game. NWS Albany won't be anywhere close to their 12-18 range at this rate. Especially from ALB on north. Yeah...true. If Euro follows suit with track and qpf...this one is in jeopardy of being a sub or marginal warning event for a lot of the Warning area in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 NYC gets their i95 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 28 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah...true. If Euro follows suit with track and qpf...this one is in jeopardy of being a sub or marginal warning event for a lot of the Warning area in NY. Big shifts so late in the game all around. New climate regime reminding ENY to remember their role after last week's deviation from the norm, haha. I don't mind it as much as I used to though, and some in Eastern New England really wanted this one after last week's storm. I would expect the map to look much different tomorrow barring any surprises from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stash said: Big shifts so late in the game all around. New climate regime reminding ENY to remember their role after last week's deviation from the norm, haha. I don't mind it as much as I used to though, and some in Eastern New England really wanted this one after last week's storm. I would expect the map to look much different tomorrow barring any surprises from the Euro. There's still thermal and possible dryslot issues for SNE on this one esp along i95 to i84 corridor but they won't be shutout like last friday, other than the Cape to SE CT. Even BOS proper may scrape out a few slushy inches. Will be interesting to see Euro qpf. I assume its going to stay east somewhere out past the benchmark where it usually is. Question will be it's intensity as NWP trend is generally a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Well, KBGM's low end forecast is looking better and better. Maybe time to Take 'em Down come morning package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 00Z GFS looked fine, it actually came west a tick or 2 so.... We'll know soon enough whats gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I know one thing, its snowing hard right now where I am! This doesn't look that bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Model noise verbatim, from a little over an inch to a little under, GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Majority is from wrap around.. 0z euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Don’t look at the 6z nam lol Even farther east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Hope it's OTS, and to let this Winter end already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Long duration wwa issued ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations through the long event of 10 to 18 inches are expected. Greatest snow accumulations in a 12-hour period likely Thursday and Thursday night. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Most will come at night probably! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The 3km drops close to 28" in the 5 boroughs, that's not gonna happen, not this time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: The 3km drops close to 28" in the 5 boroughs, that's not gonna happen, not this time anyway. Next week's storm looks supressed. Eurotrash has it down off JAX. By day 10 we are getting the golf sticks out. So...whatever we get thurs and Friday may be about it for the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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