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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Think it's high here, right in the line of 4-6"/6-8". Think we see 4" if we're extremely lucky. 

Yeah I'm not seeing that for the lower elevations in WNY.  Sure the higher elevations will probably hit 6+ but I think it will be a stretch for the rest of us here to cash in on this one... 

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

This is long duration lighter precipitation event, it’s been that way for days, at least here..

  

Putting all of the above together...the westward shift seen in some
of the guidance today has resulted in increasing forecast confidence
in headline-worthy amounts east of Lake Ontario. In this region...a
current model consensus now supports up to a foot or so of total
accumulation across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western
Adirondack foothills between Wednesday afternoon and the end of the
day Friday...and this total could turn out to be higher if some of
the further west/wetter guidance ultimately verifies. With this in
mind...we have hoisted a long-duration Winter Storm Watch for the
Eastern Lake Ontario region to cover this possibility...with the
heaviest snows again appearing to be most likely across the higher
terrain.
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CNY_WX

CNY_WX

Posted
Posted
  
NYZ017-018-025-044-055-PAZ038-080015-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0016.180307T0300Z-180308T0900Z/
Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Tompkins-Cortland-Tioga-Bradford-
Including the cities of Auburn, Syracuse, Ithaca, Cortland,
Owego, Waverly, Sayre, and Towanda
713 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Bradford County. In New York,
  Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Tompkins, Cortland and Tioga
  Counties.

* WHEN...Light snow will develop this evening and taper off
  overnight with 1 to 2 inches by Wednesday morning. An additional
  1 to 4 inches will fall Wednesday afternoon into the evening
  before tapering off early Thursday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on hazardous travel conditions
  especially Wednesday afternoon and evening.
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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Even through Friday night I highly doubt any of us below 1000' west of I-81 see 6" or more. At this time of the year it's starting to get hard to accumulate during the daytime unless you have decent rates (over 1/2" hr). Last storm for example, it took several hours of 1"/hr rates before we started to accumulate on non grassy areas and that was at night time! I'm just not seeing it but I'd be happy to be wrong. 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
  • Author
Posted
21 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Even through Friday night I highly doubt any of us below 1000' west of I-81 see 6" or more. At this time of the year it's starting to get hard to accumulate during the daytime unless you have decent rates (over 1/2" hr). Last storm for example, it took several hours of 1"/hr rates before we started to accumulate on non grassy areas and that was at night time! I'm just not seeing it but I'd be happy to be wrong. 

Atmosphere is a little bit colder with this event then the last, but agree overall. For areas in lower elevation and west of Rochester will be tough to get more than a few inches max. However, I do think KBUF could cash in from the wrap around Huron/Ontario set-up. The atmosphere is going to have tons of synoptic moisture and lakes are way above average temps wise. Thursday looks like the best day for snowfall in WNY. 

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phoenixny

phoenixny

Posted
Posted

Updated Discussion from Bing: 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 pm update...
Issued winter weather advisory for row of counties west of the
winter storm warning since we are forecasting advisory amounts
and decision makers need the information this evening regarding
travel, school and other closures this evening. Also we bumped
up snow amounts in grids to better match neighboring offices
snowfall for our statewide and regional partners and also to
match WPC amounts better. 18Z guidance from the NAM 3km and the
2.5 km Canadian have come in with heavier snow west to near
I-81 with amounts in the 8-12" inch range in the western part of
our winter storm warning area. I also bumped up snow amounts
from Otsego and Delaware counties south to northeast Pa where
these higher resolution models have a solid 10-20". Both of
these models did very well with last Friday`s snowstorm. The 18z
GFS has backed off a bit with snow amounts running 6"-12" east
of a Rome NY to Towanda, Pa line with the highest in the Poconos
to Delaware/Sullivan Counties in NY.

We are also concerned with snowfall intensity late Wednesday
morning into afternoon/evening. Snowfall rates could reach 3"
per hour in our eastern areas, east of I-81. I look for where
the 700 mb temperature gradient sets up and of course this leads
to strong frontogenetic forcing and intense snow banding. The
18Z GFS has this gradient between the lower Hudson valley and
Upper Mohawk Valley. The 18z NAM has this gradient moving across
central NY Wednesday but really tightening up over the
Catskills by 00z Thursday. This again suggests very heavy snow
just the northwest of this. The NAM 3km, which is too fine of
resolution to look at thermal fields, has 2-3" per hour rates
which supports the 12km NAM thermal fields and frontogenetical
forcing. This all suggests strong forcing which would support
heavier snow in the Catskills, Delaware/Otsego/Sullivan counties
in NY and northeast PA. In these areas I upped amounts to
10-16"... locally 20 inches. Now west of this area there will be
a drop off in snow amounts which really is difficult to
determine exactly where the 6-12 inch amounts fall off to a few
inches. Right now we are running this line from Oneida Lake to
Owego, NY and far eastern Bradford County in PA.

One more point, we are not expecting a wet snow from this storm
as thermal profiles all have temperatures between -5C to-15C in
the snow production zone from MSV to AVP on BUFKIT which have
the warmest profiles in our forecast area. So even if surface
temperatures are close to freezing, temperatures aloft will be
cold enough to make for a more powdery snow than a wet snow. We
are looking at snow to liquid ratios of 12-13 inches of snow to
1 inch of liquid.

Updated grids, snow amounts and winter weather message to
reflect changes. Previous discussion is below
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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, phoenixny said:

Updated Discussion from Bing: 


NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 pm update...
Issued winter weather advisory for row of counties west of the
winter storm warning since we are forecasting advisory amounts
and decision makers need the information this evening regarding
travel, school and other closures this evening. Also we bumped
up snow amounts in grids to better match neighboring offices
snowfall for our statewide and regional partners and also to
match WPC amounts better. 18Z guidance from the NAM 3km and the
2.5 km Canadian have come in with heavier snow west to near
I-81 with amounts in the 8-12" inch range in the western part of
our winter storm warning area. I also bumped up snow amounts
from Otsego and Delaware counties south to northeast Pa where
these higher resolution models have a solid 10-20". Both of
these models did very well with last Friday`s snowstorm. The 18z
GFS has backed off a bit with snow amounts running 6"-12" east
of a Rome NY to Towanda, Pa line with the highest in the Poconos
to Delaware/Sullivan Counties in NY.

We are also concerned with snowfall intensity late Wednesday
morning into afternoon/evening. Snowfall rates could reach 3"
per hour in our eastern areas, east of I-81. I look for where
the 700 mb temperature gradient sets up and of course this leads
to strong frontogenetic forcing and intense snow banding. The
18Z GFS has this gradient between the lower Hudson valley and
Upper Mohawk Valley. The 18z NAM has this gradient moving across
central NY Wednesday but really tightening up over the
Catskills by 00z Thursday. This again suggests very heavy snow
just the northwest of this. The NAM 3km, which is too fine of
resolution to look at thermal fields, has 2-3" per hour rates
which supports the 12km NAM thermal fields and frontogenetical
forcing. This all suggests strong forcing which would support
heavier snow in the Catskills, Delaware/Otsego/Sullivan counties
in NY and northeast PA. In these areas I upped amounts to
10-16"... locally 20 inches. Now west of this area there will be
a drop off in snow amounts which really is difficult to
determine exactly where the 6-12 inch amounts fall off to a few
inches. Right now we are running this line from Oneida Lake to
Owego, NY and far eastern Bradford County in PA.

One more point, we are not expecting a wet snow from this storm
as thermal profiles all have temperatures between -5C to-15C in
the snow production zone from MSV to AVP on BUFKIT which have
the warmest profiles in our forecast area. So even if surface
temperatures are close to freezing, temperatures aloft will be
cold enough to make for a more powdery snow than a wet snow. We
are looking at snow to liquid ratios of 12-13 inches of snow to
1 inch of liquid.

Updated grids, snow amounts and winter weather message to
reflect changes. Previous discussion is below

Tremendous discussion, quite informative. KBGM a touch nervous about western extent of heavier snowfall and unless 00Z shifts east, they are quite right about that uncertainty, IMO.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Top analog is March 1st 2005. Would cut totals in half across WNY, looks good for central NY

 

How did you come up with that analog? Just curious.  It does look pretty similar to this one. Especially the dryslot in CT river valley.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

How did you come up with that analog? Just curious.  It does look pretty similar to this one. Especially the dryslot in CT river valley.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2018030612

Top left click top analogs

Gives complete breakdown of them, including notable snowfall amounts, impactful events. It's my favorite weather website. You can use it for severe weather, snowstorms, anything basically. 

It gives the indices relative to the upper level pattern that coincides with the synoptic storm. Correlation coefficient as well. 

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