Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Bomb Cyclone Obs Thread, March 1-3 2018


Rtd208

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 723
  • Created
  • Last Reply
3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It gave the city a foot of snow in its morning run.

This was a somewhat rare case where the snow maps overdid totals in a marginal situation but I was honestly worried this morning seeing those temps with a north wind.  I thought my 2 inch forecast was in big trouble.  Earlier this winter the December snow event in the southeast the snow maps were disregarded for the same reason and ended up correct that time but that air mass was certainly colder than this 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Winter Weather Advisory now in effect for my area until 4 am Saturday morning for 2-3" of snow expected.

here in Northern  most Middlesex County precip rates have really lightened up with light wind driven snow just a trace on some colder surfaces - interesting the Eastern Union doesn't have any advisories which I am closer to then most of the remaining portion of Middlesex County

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This was a somewhat rare case where the snow maps overdid totals in a marginal situation but I was honestly worried this morning seeing those temps with a north wind.  I thought my 2 inch forecast was in big trouble.  Earlier this winter the December snow event in the southeast the snow maps were disregarded for the same reason and ended up correct that time but that air mass was certainly colder than this 

While the NAM does a good job with p-types, it can have a cold bias at 2m. But even it's 2m's this morning were in the mid 30's which suggested that much of the snow would melt. These model snow maps were never really made for marginal situations like this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

While the NAM does a good job with p-types, it can have a cold bias at 2m. But even it's 2m's this morning were in the mid 30's which suggested that much of the snow would melt. These model snow maps were never really made for marginal situations like this.

The odd thing is how they underdo snow totals in marginal situations 9 of 10 times.  I’m not sure what causes the rare cases where it’s overdone 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The 12z Euro today had 8” for me on the snowmap. I’ve had about that many flakes over the last 2 hours. All rain here. 

Upton NWS - who I said I was going with in this storm didn't buy into some of these clown models and maps with the high snow totals and their forecasts are close to what is actually happening in and around the city and immediate surrounding towns in NJ and Long Island

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The odd thing is how they underdo snow totals in marginal situations 9 of 10 times.  I’m not sure what causes the rare cases where it’s overdone 

The 0z Euro did the same exact thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Meanwhile, there is still some rain in parts of the HV as far north as Saugerties.  Gotta be some kind of downsloping thing going on there.  Winds seem to be mostly N, but maybe some kind of weird deflection off the Cats and Taconics.  There has to be an interesting case study to be made of that.

I saw that...very odd effect and I’d guess you are right about some sort of downsloping at play.  Mid levels east of there are also juicy and mild.  KALB was concerned about that yesterday and they’re forecasts for the valley areas were pretty low (3-4”)... and low confidence.  Capital District escaped it as it turned out they’re getting rocked but not so much an hour south of there.  Around 13” up here in the Cuse and still going. Fortunately the snow since dawn has been our more usual drier type. I had almost forgot how much it sucks snowblowing and shoveling 10” of boilerplate! ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton NWS - who I said I was going with in this storm didn't buy into some of these clown models and maps with the high snow totals and their forecasts are close to what is actually happening in and around the city and immediate surrounding towns in NJ and Long Island

Kudos to you man

You stuck with your forecast and was right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Kudos to you man

You stuck with your forecast and was right.

Upton busted in Westchester...they had all rain and we got 2" or so of snow.

Also, the forecast in some places was right for the wrong reasons: we changed over but all the precipitation was before. This afternoon has been pretty dry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It gave the city a foot of snow in its morning run.

It didn't differentiate between non-accumulating snow and accumulating snow. I've never been in this situation.  Is that a thing?

 

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 12z Euro today had 8” for me on the snowmap. I’ve had about that many flakes over the last 2 hours. All rain here. 

Been snowing on the Ocean Parkway both times I was on it today. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...