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Central PA - March 2018


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6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i know, or i should say i think we have discussed this before, but wasn't one of our Biggies considered a Miller B? (Biggies meaning like 83, 96) meaning that it has actually happened once?

Not sure the evolution was exactly the same, but I believe Christmas 2002 in that area had a storm that had Miller B type evolution, and came together JUST in time for a double digit snowfall. 

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6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i know, or i should say i think we have discussed this before, but wasn't one of our Biggies considered a Miller B? (Biggies meaning like 83, 96) meaning that it has actually happened once?

I'd defer to mag for all of em, but if memo serves, 93 was an A

christmas miracle around 96 was a B.

83 dont remember.

What I like to see for B's to get an A on the scoresheet is for the primary to stat so far west, that it has less influence on midlevels, and when you have a sufficient NAO the energy transfer is far enough south of our latitude to let the coastal mature to a point that we get in on the goods.   

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Not sure the evolution was exactly the same, but I believe Christmas 2002 in that area had a storm that had Miller B type evolution, and came together JUST in time for a double digit snowfall. 

Classic Miller B storm. One of my Favs. 9” in Lancaster. 3” per hour snow rates.


.
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1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

Brian! Where you been buddy? We must be looking good for you to show up...

I've been lurking all Winter.  This one has my attention.   Miller B storms can be heartbreaking around here, but when you start to see models set up bands to the west of us thats a good signal.  In the end I do think it will shift east northeast some but we still get a good amount of snow.

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Watch upgraded to Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1159 AM EST Tue Mar 6 2018

PAZ053-057>059-065-066-070100-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0005.180307T0500Z-180308T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0006.180307T0500Z-180308T0500Z/
Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Bloomsburg, Berwick, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Pottsville, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster
1159 AM EST Tue Mar 6 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Wednesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Be prepared
  for significant reductions in visibility at times.

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8 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

so like normal i'm confused. I thought it was to start later tonight, almost looks like it doesn't start until early hours tomorrow.

WAA (warm air advection) is tonight.  Typically gets out ahead of main show.  Then we wait for coastal transfer and the main show to start later tonight.  

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50 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Watch upgraded to Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1159 AM EST Tue Mar 6 2018

PAZ053-057>059-065-066-070100-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0005.180307T0500Z-180308T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0006.180307T0500Z-180308T0500Z/
Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Bloomsburg, Berwick, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Pottsville, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster
1159 AM EST Tue Mar 6 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Wednesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Be prepared
  for significant reductions in visibility at times.

Based on current modeling we think low, high or about right. Since it seems to cover a few counties east to west I am thinking higher east. But of course modeling is bringing that band further west. Thoughts?

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6 minutes ago, snowalot said:

Based on current modeling we think low, high or about right. Since it seems to cover a few counties east to west I am thinking higher east. But of course modeling is bringing that band further west. Thoughts?

March and ratios are likely playing in.  If this storm were a couple weeks back and were a little colder, we'd easily add 1.25-1.5 multiplier to those numbers.

I'd think 6-8:1 ratios more likely.  

will still take this in a heartbeat.

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Nice to see some numbers piling up but March snows are "usually" one day wonders.  We're not that far from September sun angle equivalent.  And with that, I'll venture the roads are mostly dry by Thursday afternoon.  Still cool, but just not as impactful as it would be two months ago.

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