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Central PA - March 2018


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3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I can see the Susquehanna river & Dauphin county from my front porch, & I’m sure you are less than a mile or 2 from the river. If we lived in the western end of our counties, then I would think we were on the outside looking in for this one. I think the rule is that at least half of the county has to be involved in order to be issued whatever the respective watch or warning should be.

Either way, if you want snow for this one in our region, Lancaster will do better than State College.

 

I was only kidding :)

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6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I was only kidding :)

We are good my friend!

I just really want to score with these last 2 events. It’s always a battle for our snow, & we may miss the good stuff to our east by less than 50 miles, which is frustrating. I will be thrilled if we can get 4 or 5 inches with the storm this week.

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

I’m going to guess the NAM and then GFS goes East at 0z, giving MDT 1-2” max on the NAM and nada on GFS. Hope my gut’s Wrong.

The GEFS & EPS went in a good direction for Harrisburg this afternoon.

Our local TV channels seem pretty confident as well with ABC 27 having 3-6 inches from Harrisburg on West & 6-12 inches to the east of I-83 towards Lancaster & Lebanon. It looks like MDT would be right on their 6 inch line.

CTP still has 4 inches for Harrisburg as the most likely amount on their map they just updated, with 8 inches on their High end map.

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NAM's are pulling the trollin lines out for the LSV.  Still give us some snow, but its not what i was hoping to see (but was fearing).  Miller B's are just tough on our area.  Always have been always will be.

Still not over for this one, but toggling through last 3 runs the progression is East.

Ugh....

GFS, please save us...

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31 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Damn NAMs. Not terrible but a definite shift in the wrong direction.

I still think that tomorrow may bring things back a bit, but we are running out of "shifts" to help/hurt. 

Still happy to be tracking, but seeing us in a relatively good spot for several runs, sorta sucked me in, but i told some buds who were hearing of the big totals that my guess was 4-8 here despite the big runs, as this happens all to often w/ Miller B's.  We just do not have enough latitude down here to score, unless the pattern is more amped and can force a transfer further south.  Just not enough time for them to mature at my latitude. 

Miller B's are like the cute gal that always smiled at you at school, but did the same to everyone else.  You always enjoyed looking, but never really had a chance.  lol

 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I still think that tomorrow may bring things back a bit, but we are running out of "shifts" to help/hurt. 

Still happy to be tracking, but seeing us in a relatively good spot for several runs, sorta sucked me in, but i told some buds who were hearing of the big totals that my guess was 4-8 here despite the big runs, as this happens all to often w/ Miller B's.  We just do not have enough latitude down here to score, unless the pattern is more amped and can force a transfer further south.  Just not enough time for them to mature at my latitude. 

Miller B's are like the cute gal that always smiled at you at school, but did the same to everyone else.  You always enjoyed looking, but never really had a chance.  lol

 

Crankyweatherguy talking Like the Nam is going move East.

" note it's STRONG jet streak pushing our 2ndary low east. This is why you kinda question anything tracking the 2ndary too close to the coast. "pic.twitter.com/Eao52Ehv6j

 

 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I still think that tomorrow may bring things back a bit, but we are running out of "shifts" to help/hurt. 

Still happy to be tracking, but seeing us in a relatively good spot for several runs, sorta sucked me in, but i told some buds who were hearing of the big totals that my guess was 4-8 here despite the big runs, as this happens all to often w/ Miller B's.  We just do not have enough latitude down here to score, unless the pattern is more amped and can force a transfer further south.  Just not enough time for them to mature at my latitude. 

Miller B's are like the cute gal that always smiled at you at school, but did the same to everyone else.  You always enjoyed looking, but never really had a chance.  lol

 

 I thought the 3k NAM & RGEM at 0z looked good for the LSV. Both hold together the initial precip from the Midwest low until it reaches the LSV & puts down the first inch or 2 before the coastal gets going Wednesday am.

The snow exits on both models by early afternoon Wednesday, but not before putting down 4-5 inches towards Harrisburg area & 7-9 inches in Lancaster county. 

One thing that I look for in storms like this is to get into the initial main precip shield, which usually helps to stay in it when the main storm gets going. The NAM & RGEM just did that tonight.

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17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 I thought the 3k NAM & RGEM at 0z looked good for the LSV. Both hold together the initial precip from the Midwest low until it reaches the LSV & puts down the first inch or 2 before the coastal gets going Wednesday am.

The snow exits on both models by early afternoon Wednesday, but not before putting down 4-5 inches towards Harrisburg area & 7-9 inches in Lancaster county. 

One thing that I look for in storms like this is to get into the initial main precip shield, which usually helps to stay in it when the main storm gets going. The NAM & RGEM just did that tonight.

did you see the Lanco snow hole on the 12k?   For the first 6 hours it totally goes all around us?  Its like voyager got out the voodoo dolls and made one that looked like me....and it worked.  Best part of coastal still gets us, but we definitely are less bullseye, and more fringe.  I dont want to, but i can surely see this evolution panning out.  I'd be so so happy to be wrong. 

 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

did you see the Lanco snow hole on the 12k?   For the first 6 hours it totally goes all around us?  Its like voyager got out the voodoo dolls and made one that looked like me....and it worked.  Best part of coastal still gets us, but we definitely are less bullseye, and more fringe.  I dont want to, but i can surely see this evolution panning out.  I'd be so so happy to be wrong. 

 

The 3k is far superior to the 12k. The Red taggers in the MA thread were just commenting on it this evening.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

and the GFS keeps us intersted.  Actually looks a little better for SE locals.

I want this, but I'm tired and turnin in.

 

Somebody....anybody.....bring this one back for us.

 

The GFS has the low tucked in, right on the coast at Atlantic City, NJ. The precip shield to Northwest back towards the LSV should be more impressive than what it shows.

If that track is right & the Hi res models go towards this track, I think we would see better amounts towards the LSV.

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4 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Uhhhh....what GFS maps were you looking at?  There's an I-81 snowhole from the Monday storm.:wacko:

The 0z GFS gives a great track for us for  the Sunday/Monday storm. It takes the primary low to Kentucky & then re-develops it off the VA coast & then the low heads to the southern NJ coast.

It only shows .5 precip for most of us in the LSV, & 4-6 inches of snow with this run. With that track & duration, I feel confident that precip & snow totals would be double that. The run showed 1 to 1.2 Precip toward Baltimore & DC, so we are not far from the good stuff if you take the run as it stands.

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I think significant snowfall per the coastal tonight into tomorrow is going to have a tight gradient to it, with Harrisburg riding the fine line between several inches and perhaps not alot. The overnight Euro focuses significant snowfall on the I-95 corridor PHL-NYC and gives York/Lancaster an advisory event at best. 0z GFS had axis a bit further NW but pretty tight not getting back to H-burg. New 6z GFS has more extensive precip coverage into central and LSV... looks like a little more interaction with the parent low. 3k NAM seems the furthest NW with heavy snow, getting warning snow back to Harrisburg, but gradient is tight. NAM overall was pretty amped up with precip. 

0z and 6z GFS full steam ahead with the next system with ensemble support, making a miller B evolution taking a primary through KY to WV and transferring to a coastal low off the VA/NC coast. Not the insane totals of a few runs ago, but showing a solid system. 0z Euro inexplicably loses this system, and I mean lose it as in having absolutely nothing in this timeframe. The limited Euro ensemble stuff I can see looked like it still showed a system (further southeast) so I'm gonna toss that op run for now. 

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I've been reading lots of debate over whether this storm comes west or shifts east, which obviously has a huge impact on our sensible weather. However...one thing that i'm noticing on models that started last night at 18z and have continued through this morning's runs, is  that the storm seems to be developing SLOWER and as a result, the heaviest strip of snow keeps moving NORTH instead of east or west. Appreciable accumulations barely make it to the M/D now on a lot of the models. 

Something to keep watching as today's 12z suite rolls out...

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9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 3k is far superior to the 12k. The Red taggers in the MA thread were just commenting on it this evening.

yeah, i know they seem to like it. I think it does better w/ qpf, but my weenie method is for consensus on track then qpf, and I use the 12k for that as well.  

happy to see the 6zs tug west again. another tick and it could bring some west of the river back into the game.  I'm pulling for ya westerners!!

 

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

yeah, i know they seem to like it. I think it does better w/ qpf, but my weenie method is for consensus on track then qpf, and I use the 12k for that as well.  

happy to see the 6zs tug west again. another tick and it could bring some west of the river back into the game.  I'm pulling for ya westerners!!

 

I’ll take my slushy inch and run with it 

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