Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, canderson said: FWIW sounds like Horst is not discrediting the NAM's evolution, so there's that. No he's not at all. I thought it was interesting that he was silent for 3 days...perhaps he was resting up for a wild week ahead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Getting my wish (as of this time anyway). Pick up at noon tomorrow in Reading heading to Delaware, OH for Wednesday morning. Then I go to Columbus and load for California. If all goes right, I will safely miss both storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: No he's not at all. I thought it was interesting that he was silent for 3 days...perhaps he was resting up for a wild week ahead? Any who have a basic understanding of pattern recognition, could tell from over a week ago, that if it verifired (and it likely is), that we are heading into what may be a memorable (albeit brief) period. It's always the big if, but with verification, there is no reason to think a shutout is the higher percentage. While that also doesnt mean "feet" for everyone, it surely means lots of fun for some/many here. And that wasnt meant in a way to slight anyone, but I'm saying that he likely knew it was coming. Thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 lol, my daughter is heading to NYC Wednesday for for a Journalism conference. The 2010 back to back events were pretty special. can it be duplicated? #pleasegodsayyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 So, what say the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, canderson said: So, what say the 12z GFS? Coming on board with Wednesday...LANCO bullseye 12+. Not yet out to next Monday Edit>>12+ is 10:1....Kuchera around 9". GFS about to reach Monday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, sauss06 said: lol, my daughter is heading to NYC Wednesday for for a Journalism conference. The 2010 back to back events were pretty special. can it be duplicated? #pleasegodsayyes Is she intentionally trying to travel during bad weather? How did her flight go the other day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Regarding next Monday...storm's arrival more than 6 hours later vs 6Z. Nothing yet by 12Z Monday morning. Nothing by 18Z...I smell a bad run underway... Nothing by 0Z Tuesday. Not looking at maps but I think it lost the storm for this run 12Z Tues...NADA. On to the 18Z...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Is she intentionally trying to travel during bad weather? How did her flight go the other day? She isn't a weather geek like her father, so she had no idea about the a storm until i told her She traveled to Chicago and now NY for the Millersville paper. Going on train this time. Minor delay flying out, she said no issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Huh, GFS falls to the NAM for Tuesday night/Wednesday. Imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, canderson said: Huh, GFS falls to the NAM for Tuesday night/Wednesday. Imagine that. Will WSW's be hoisted later today? With the GFS seemingly coming on board I would think the chances for them have gone up quite a bit. 3K using Kuchera gave LANCO area over 12"!! Actually here's the breakdown for MDT and LAN: 3K using 10:1 gives MDT 10" and LAN 22"; using Kuchera gives MDT 5" and LAN 15" 12K using 10:1 gives MDT 11" and LAN 21"; using Kuchera gives MDT 8" and LAN 16". Gotta like where LANCO is sitting right now with most conservative numbers near 15". GFS gives LAN 15" at 10:1 and 9" Kuchera. Pretty sweet for LANCO folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Alright, I want to know everything that has happened up 'til now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Alright, I want to know everything that has happened up 'til now. Everyone but me is ecstatic over what the models are showing, but I'm heading to California so for me I'm good...lmao!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Alright, I want to know everything that has happened up 'til now. You said it was over but it's not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Alright, I want to know everything that has happened up 'til now. Wind Blew, chit flew and its gone snow................Thats the cliff notes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Euro came west...but not enough. Still on the outside looking in for anything significant until you get closer to the PA/NJ border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Euro came west...but not enough. Still on the outside looking in for anything significant until you get closer to the PA/NJ border. FWIW the Euro has not been a rock on this one. For me I'm looking for trends, and this storm has been trending w/sw on most guidance. Meso's are starting to have merit due to resolution and with GFS/NAM combo....I'll play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: FWIW the Euro has not been a rock on this one. For me I'm looking for trends, and this storm has been trending w/sw on most guidance. Meso's are starting to have merit due to resolution and with GFS/NAM combo....I'll play. Oh me too. I just wanted the Euro to cave a little more than it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 It did shift significantly. That’s a huge shift in 36 hours leading to event. It’s catching up to NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Oh me too. I just wanted the Euro to cave a little more than it did. it caved on next week.....so you have that cave hehe I'm such a smart@ss all seriousness, i agree 100% but it rarely does IMO. IF and thats a big IF, the NAM/GFS continue as modeled, you'll see it cave further, but likely miss to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: it caved on next week.....so you have that cave hehe I'm such a smart@ss all seriousness, i agree 100% but it rarely does IMO. IF and thats a big IF, the NAM/GFS continue as modeled, you'll see it cave further, but likely miss to some degree. ...but you live in PA where it always snows. Our climate is so vastly different than MD...don't you realize that yet? Yes, I went there, I can be a smartazz too. No one here at work is talking about snow on Wednesday. I'm sitting by quietly...hoping the boom is fully lowered and tomorrow everyone around me is going apesh*t all the sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Let’s take these storms 1 at a time. Today we took a step back for next week so far, but improved for the storm this week. Hopefully the NAM keeps looking good at the 18z run ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Winter Storm Watches up for Lancaster, York, Dauphin, Lebanon, and Schuylkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 PAZ057>059-065-066-061230- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0005.180307T0500Z-180308T0500Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster 217 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches at lower elevations with localized amounts up to 10 inches possible on the ridges. * WHERE...Dauphin, Schuylkill, Lebanon, York and Lancaster Counties. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Significant reductions in visibility are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is the potential for significant winter weather that may impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter weather safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 FWIW @MUweather (1/2) Yes, there is another #Noreaster developing...for Wednesday. Winds will not be as extreme as last Friday's, but there will be heavy snow again in parts of eastern PA. Just where is very tricky given marginal temps, uncertain storm track, sharp west edge & daylight timing. @MUweather (2/2) Elevation will also play a role...with 12"+ of snow at some high terrain locations btwn the Susquehanna and Delaware Rivers. Wet snow in low elevations may struggle to stick, but it will become plowable at locations seeing the heaviest snow band ("where" is up for debate). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, canderson said: FWIW @MUweather (1/2) Yes, there is another #Noreaster developing...for Wednesday. Winds will not be as extreme as last Friday's, but there will be heavy snow again in parts of eastern PA. Just where is very tricky given marginal temps, uncertain storm track, sharp west edge & daylight timing. @MUweather (2/2) Elevation will also play a role...with 12"+ of snow at some high terrain locations btwn the Susquehanna and Delaware Rivers. Wet snow in low elevations may struggle to stick, but it will become plowable at locations seeing the heaviest snow band ("where" is up for debate). He keeps it real...no hype, and lays out all the things that can go wrong that weenies like to ignore sometimes. Last March he was ALL over our area changing over to sleet/freezing rain before any model showed that scenario. Sure enough...a good many of us tainted for hours. 2 things he excels at: Placing science over models Impeccable knowledge of our local climate and history of how previous storms impacted our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: He keeps it real...no hype, and lays out all the things that can go wrong that weenies like to ignore sometimes. Last March he was ALL over our area changing over to sleet/freezing rain before any model showed that scenario. Sure enough...a good many of us tainted for hours. 2 things he excels at: Placing science over models Impeccable knowledge of our local climate and history of how previous storms impacted our area. what a lot in this area lack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, canderson said: PAZ057>059-065-066-061230- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0005.180307T0500Z-180308T0500Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster 217 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches at lower elevations with localized amounts up to 10 inches possible on the ridges. * WHERE...Dauphin, Schuylkill, Lebanon, York and Lancaster Counties. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the evening commute on Wednesday. Significant reductions in visibility are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is the potential for significant winter weather that may impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter weather safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/winter. Nice, we haven’t had many Watches this year ! It seems like CTP is following the lead of the NAM & GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, sauss06 said: what a lot in this area lack. Yes sir, and it's often important and comes in to play big time. One of his biggest arguments last March was how rare it is to get 18" of snow in Lanco...only a couple of times in recorded history has that happened. It takes something special to get that amount of snow in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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