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Central PA - March 2018


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2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I've been watching the radar for the past 3 hours. The northern extent of the shield continues to get beaten back at the M/D line. I agree with everything you said...and why models showing these big snow for today are likely bunk. 

Like a lot of you were saying yesterday, even if we cut totals in half, its a great event. 

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5 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Like a lot of you were saying yesterday, even if we cut totals in half, its a great event. 

thats my postion and I'm stickin to it.  Radar creeping N now and we should see frozen particles falling soon.  Looks to be comin in hot for round 1.  Hope it lays a nice blanket of sleet/snow for tonights main show to land on... :)

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

thats my postion and I'm stickin to it.  Radar creeping N now and we should see frozen particles falling soon.  Looks to be comin in hot for round 1.  Hope it lays a nice blanket of sleet/snow for tonights main show to land on... :)

Radar is now showing that precip has begun the advancement north.

By the way, Eric is currently in the midst of rolling out a series of Tweets on why his snow numbers are much lower than everyone else. Check it out...

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26 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

^^^

Exactly.  Thats why posting maps on social media is a bad idea.  

Just looking at latest HRRR and seeing the hourly changes is just funny.  Much better look this hour than last....wth.

Just look at the radar trends right now....I get the NAM went south on 6z and also 2 weeks ago the dreaded miss but it is nowcasting you can see how it is coming north with the precip. 

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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

So for MDT the 06z 12K NAM had 3”, the 3K had 10” (10:1) and 6” (Ferrier) yet the SREF mean is 12” and 12.25” taking away the ones that show 20”+ and

. Pro

Hope you don’t have to forecast for anyone. Lol

ive got clients asking me about cancelling events here in Lanco. Ugh. 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Hope you don’t have to forecast for anyone. Lol

ive got clients asking me about cancelling events here in Lanco. Ugh. 

Me too. Sigh. I really don't know what to say or do. And look...I hope to all get out I'm wrong and we get a foot or more. I just wanted to get it out there that just because I think the most likely amount for our area is 4"-7" should NOT be interpreted that i don't want to get buried. At the same time I'm not going to ever wish cast. Or be an intentional Deb. I came on here this morning and immediately said that i thought we would get MORE than what i thought we would as of last night. 

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7 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Me too. Sigh. I really don't know what to say or do. And look...I hope to all get out I'm wrong and we get a foot or more. I just wanted to get it out there that just because I think the most likely amount for our area is 4"-7" should NOT be interpreted that i don't want to get buried. At the same time I'm not going to ever wish cast. Or be an intentional Deb. I came on here this morning and immediately said that i thought we would get MORE than what i thought we would as of last night. 

12z will basically put rd1 quandry to rest and should give us some clarity on what the heck part 2 wants to do and where it goes.  Couple models showed a notable shift EAST and that hopefully was an off hour hiccup.  We'll find out soon.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

12z will basically put rd1 quandry to rest and should give us some clarity on what the heck part 2 wants to do and where it goes.  Couple models showed a notable shift EAST and that hopefully was an off hour hiccup.  We'll find out soon.

East is not good. East is what every storm has done at the last minute all winter. East is what prevents us from the main snow from storm #2. Ugh...not again. Please no. 

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6 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

East is not good. East is what every storm has done at the last minute all winter. East is what prevents us from the main snow from storm #2. Ugh...not again. Please no. 

I'll be lookinfg for that at 12z.  If you see that trend continue......

 

STEP OFF THE RUG!!

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