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Central PA - March 2018


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I think one thing that's happened is the models took away a lot of today's "snow" which to be honest was never something i feel we should have counted on. I think the models are now adjusting to tonight and tomorrow's "main" coastal. 

The crazy totals we were seeing yesterday...a lot of that was from today's storm, and there was a vocal minority (Horst) who was saying all along that that was going to be a miss/nuisance. 

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7 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Good point may....these deals are hard to predict.

Well I mean...we were never going to get those 16", 18" amounts that the NAM was spitting out yesterday from just round #2. That was including a sizable amount from round #1 which was never really our deal. Plus throw in the lost QPF to sleet (which some people ignore, assume it's snow) and perhaps the totals now are much more realistic. 

I still like 4"-7" for our area. Almost all of that coming after darkness tonight. 

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2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I actually think our chances are better for more snow than before. I’d rather it be slightly colder and miss out on the initial band that was supposed to be crap for us anyway.


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YES!!! Exactly! As long as there's an understanding that we were never going to get those outrageous totals i think we'll be fine later on. Too many people were banking on snow today when it was never really our deal to begin with. 

And that's why i went up with my numbers. 

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol, I never realized how many if our posters are all in LSV or south central....I'm pretty much only north dude outside of 2001 and fellow Williamsport guy.

There are some more up your way that don't post a whole lot. 

Then again...for the past decade as often as you guys have been missed by storms you haven't had a whole lot to post about, either. 

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4 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

YES!!! Exactly! As long as there's an understanding that we were never going to get those outrageous totals i think we'll be fine later on. Too many people were banking on snow today when it was never really our deal to begin with. 

And that's why i went up with my numbers. 

My wife looked out our bathroom window this morning and said "Not snowing yet"! and i said its not suppose to be snowing. "Well so & So said it was" she replied. I've told her for years to stop listening to them. 

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Just now, sauss06 said:

My wife looked out our bathroom window this morning and said "Not snowing yet"! and i said its not suppose to be snowing. "Well so & So said it was" she replied. I've told her for years to stop listening to them. 

Yeah, people get confused as it is with social media hysteria these days, but this particular event has confused even more of us because of the 2 separate waves. A few models such as the NAM were insisting that we'd get big snows from both...and that isn't happening. We are relying (hoping) for the coastal to deliver the goods tonight. If the coastal forms offshore....we're toast. 

We should have a really good handle by mid evening what our yards will look like by sunrise tomorrow. 

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My wife looked out our bathroom window this morning and said "Not snowing yet"! and i said its not suppose to be snowing. "Well so & So said it was" she replied. I've told her for years to stop listening to them. 

Lol. Have had the same conversation with the “general public” for years.

Facebook, radio feed that has not been updated, etc.


.
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15 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Yeah, people get confused as it is with social media hysteria these days, but this particular event has confused even more of us because of the 2 separate waves. A few models such as the NAM were insisting that we'd get big snows from both...and that isn't happening. We are relying (hoping) for the coastal to deliver the goods tonight. If the coastal forms offshore....we're toast. 

We should have a really good handle by mid evening what our yards will look like by sunrise tomorrow. 

^^^

Exactly.  Thats why posting maps on social media is a bad idea.  

Just looking at latest HRRR and seeing the hourly changes is just funny.  Much better look this hour than last....wth.

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1 minute ago, paweather5 said:

Still some big hits showing up, not a great model but fun to look at. One can only hope. Also lots of mixing turning to snow down south already. Hopefully we can stay all snow. 

4AEF7569-712B-4C70-B411-2ED45032ADCE.jpeg

saw that but wasnt gonna be the weenie to post it.....

thx buddy.....:P

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

Is this getting a quicker start? I was thinking we wouldn't have good snow until later tonight into Wednesday

We should see a wintry mix throughout the day today but I'm not expecting much to accumulate with light rates much of the day and the significant dry air (KMDT currently reporting 33/8!) eating away at much of what does fall today.  The 6z NAM has the dry air further south than previous runs, even keeps the 850mb jet streak south of PA.  Yes it is good to have a little bit of dry air to help cool temps when the column becomes saturated but too dry like we have to the north can really cause issues with this event if the system ends up flatter and south, hence precip shield staying much further south than what we want to see.

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2 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

We should see a wintry mix throughout the day today but I'm not expecting much to accumulate with light rates much of the day and the significant dry air (KMDT currently reporting 33/8!) eating away at much of what does fall today.  The 6z NAM has the dry air further south than previous runs, even keeps the 850mb jet streak south of PA.  Yes it is good to have a little bit of dry air to help cool temps when the column becomes saturated but too dry like we have to the north can really cause issues with this event if the system ends up flatter and south, hence precip shield staying much further south than what we want to see.

I've been watching the radar for the past 3 hours. The northern extent of the shield continues to get beaten back at the M/D line. I agree with everything you said...and why models showing these big snow for today are likely bunk. 

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