paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: coastal basically stalls from 31-47 (as far out as 3k is right now)....lol that should set up some whicked CCB's back into ridge valley regions IMO. Not sure what to think as LP was only 2-3mb higher than 18z's, but that may be part of what is knocking back totals a bit? Classic so good of a setup I hope we finally capitalize on a -NAO and blocking GFS had the idea last week snow from Tuesday to Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 eastern lanco 3k 10:1 - 12" 3k ferrier - 2" Pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Here is the 12 k NAM with 10-1 snow ratio & the QPF totals. Even half of these amounts would be impressive for the LSV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Isn't the nam a lot more reliable 24 hours out or not? Those amounts look unreal. the closer in the better......I know....no duhh Yes, it is getting into its wheelhouse of credibility....fwiw 12k and 3k are ones to watch as they are hi res. snow maps of 12k are at 10:1 ratios and that will be trouble for some areas for a good part of the storm. Part 2 may see that verify once coastal really cranks and column cools sufficiently to see 10:1 or maybe a tick better at that time. Hope that helps a bit. Happy model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The Dew points are really lowering across PA. MDT dew point is down to 11 & in The Lehigh Valley & NEPA, they currently are in the single digits. Once the precip gets underway, surface temps will lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 just went through thermal profiles, and everyone looks good except York/lanco and points east at 850. We WILL need dynamics down here to achieve accums, but with 1.75" liq. equiv.....I'll take my chances any day of the week and 2x on Sundays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 12 k NAM with 10-1 snow ratio & the QPF totals. Even half of these amounts would be impressive for the LSV! Man 12" here that dwindles down to 2" up where 2001kx is (40 miles north). Really looks like a Jan 2016 gradient with that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 12 k NAM with 10-1 snow ratio & the QPF totals. Even half of these amounts would be impressive for the LSV! Let’s bring this home I still like Sauss idea win or lose we still drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Man 12" here that dwindles down to 2" up where 2001kx is (40 miles north). Really looks like a Jan 2016 gradient with that solution. do you agree with the tight gradient as depicted? based on LP I would have thought it to go better for Central peeps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3K NAM -- Kuchera --- can somebody say Ca-ching?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Hope all u yungins keep the pompoms shaking for the A team. They are putting cups in and getting ready to take the field. Gnight all. I'm dreamin of a white first (and second) day of spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 And the 12k NAM -- still with Kuchera....even bigger "ca-ching"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: just went through thermal profiles, and everyone looks good except York/lanco and points east at 850. We WILL need dynamics down here to achieve accums, but with 1.75" liq. equiv.....I'll take my chances any day of the week and 2x on Sundays. Cold air will be drawn into the system. Check out those dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: And the 12k NAM -- still with Kuchera....even bigger "ca-ching"... Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Damn, it was a 24” bullseye. NAM has been right once in my life, maybe this will be the second time. Id cut those numbers by like 70% though to be cautious ... let’s see what the GFS has to say. Heck, maybe more than 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, canderson said: Damn, it was a 24” bullseye. NAM has been right once in my life, maybe this will be the second time. Id cut those numbers by like 60% though to be cautious ... let’s see what the GFS has to say. Ok, that’s cool. I would be thrilled with around 10 inches using your advanced scientific calculations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: 3K NAM -- Kuchera --- can somebody say Ca-ching?? Beautiful! The Kuchera ratio is not far off 10-1 ratio for the Harrisburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Ok, that’s cool. I would be thrilled with around 10 inches using your advanced scientific calculations! I’ll run down front street naked if I get 10”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I Love JC from WGAL he is playing it the right way 3-5” but also knows there is uptick potential I have watched him for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 25 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Man 12" here that dwindles down to 2" up where 2001kx is (40 miles north). Really looks like a Jan 2016 gradient with that solution. Story of my life right there..Im always in the 1-2" with the good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: do you agree with the tight gradient as depicted? based on LP I would have thought it to go better for Central peeps? I don't think it pressed wave 1 precip as well into northwestern PA as 18z, which is where the majority of the difference is. When the pivot and transfer starts it brings it across the state in a tighter fashion. I don't disagree that this gradient may or may not happen but it's only the start of the 0z suite. I'm also starting to watch the HRRR/RAP stuff more and those products do seem to press precip further into PA than the NAM for now, getting 2001kx and wsptwx into the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Yayyyy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Starting out nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, paweather said: I Love JC from WGAL he is playing it the right way 3-5” but also knows there is uptick potential I have watched him for years. He is the best. Fantastic mentor and great friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12’ on the GFS me likey...sorry guys meant 12” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, AllWeather said: He is the best. Fantastic mentor and great friend. Thumbs up my only negative is that he is an Eagle fan I’m a diehard Cowboy fan yes from PA. But I won’t stop watching him for that and you. Glad he got to the parade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The latest HRRR, for what it’s worth,has decent snow by tomorrow afternoon into The LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, paweather said: Thumbs up my only negative is that he is an Eagle fan I’m a diehard Cowboy fan yes from PA. But I won’t stop watching him for that and you. Glad he got to the parade Who is our moderator that can block this Cowboys fan from posting?!? (just kidding...I think) E-A-G-L-E-S !!! Sorrry, not sorry. You brought it up! Lets get back to the weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Who is our moderator that can block this Cowboys fan from posting?!? (just kidding...I think) E-A-G-L-E-S !!! Sorrry, not sorry. You brought it up! Lets get back to the weather! It’s all good Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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