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Central PA - March 2018


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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

coastal basically stalls from 31-47 (as far out as 3k is right now)....lol

that should set up some whicked CCB's back into ridge valley regions IMO.

Not sure what to think as LP was only 2-3mb higher than 18z's, but that may be part of what is knocking back totals a bit?

 

Classic so good of a setup I hope we finally capitalize on a -NAO and blocking GFS had the idea last week snow from Tuesday to Thursday. 

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3 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Isn't the nam a lot more reliable 24 hours out or not? Those amounts look unreal.

the closer in the better......I know....no duhh

Yes, it is getting into its wheelhouse of credibility....fwiw

12k and 3k are ones to watch as they are hi res.

snow maps of 12k are at 10:1 ratios and that will be trouble for some areas for a good part of the storm.  Part 2 may see that verify once coastal really cranks and column cools sufficiently to see 10:1 or maybe a tick better at that time.

Hope that helps a bit.  Happy model watching.

 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the 12 k NAM with 10-1 snow ratio & the QPF totals. Even half of these amounts would be impressive for the LSV!

Man 12" here that dwindles down to 2" up where 2001kx is (40 miles north). Really looks like a Jan 2016 gradient with that solution. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Man 12" here that dwindles down to 2" up where 2001kx is (40 miles north). Really looks like a Jan 2016 gradient with that solution. 

do you agree with the tight gradient as depicted?

based on LP I would have thought it to go better for Central peeps?

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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

just went through thermal profiles, and everyone looks good except York/lanco and points east at 850.  We WILL need dynamics down here to achieve accums, but with 1.75" liq. equiv.....I'll take my chances any day of the week and 2x on Sundays.

Cold air will be drawn into the system. Check out those dew points.

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

Damn, it was a 24” bullseye. NAM has been right once in my life, maybe this will be the second time. 

Id cut those numbers by like 60% though to be cautious ... let’s see what the GFS has to say.

Ok, that’s cool. I would be thrilled with around 10 inches using your advanced scientific calculations!

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17 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

do you agree with the tight gradient as depicted?

based on LP I would have thought it to go better for Central peeps?

I don't think it pressed wave 1 precip as well into northwestern PA as 18z, which is where the majority of the difference is. When the pivot and transfer starts it brings it across the state in a tighter fashion.  I don't disagree that this gradient may or may not happen but it's only the start of the 0z suite. I'm also starting to watch the HRRR/RAP stuff more and those products do seem to press precip further into PA than the NAM for now, getting 2001kx and wsptwx into the precip shield. 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

Thumbs up my only negative is that he is an Eagle fan :( I’m a diehard Cowboy fan yes from PA. But I won’t stop watching him for that and you. Glad he got to the parade

Who is our moderator that can block this Cowboys fan from posting?!? (just kidding...I think)

E-A-G-L-E-S !!!

Sorrry, not sorry. You brought it up!

Lets get back to the weather!

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