pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 So nice to see a strong consensus towards a really nice event. Been a long time coming. Frig it.....i hope it even trends better yet. Lets shut the village down for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 20 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Didnt this happen just last week? You ready to smoke cirrus bro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: You ready to smoke cirrus bro? If you do, you guys still have a couple of weeks per the GFS to capitalize. This pattern isn't done yet for the North, us likely might be the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Dude it's almost April, and 2001 has elevation im in valley floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Dude it's almost April, and 2001 has elevation im in valley floor. OK. Dude. I'll hope I can go back and tell you I told you so :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Dude it's almost April, and 2001 has elevation im in valley floor. Stop. I had 7" in April already. It can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 What a roller coaster ride the last several days, this has easily been the worst storm of the winter to get a handle on. Model's are finally starting to converge on a more consolidated solution for this potentially long duration storm and have shifted heavier snows back north into the region. One thing that's different about this storm is the track of the parent low approaching from the south central US. With the blocking and suppressed storm track, this will keep the low south of PA vs trying to transfer a parent Great Lakes low to a coastal storm. The transfer spot is in a very good spot for our region with regards to maximizing the potential for a miller B. Models are showing a very broad and significantly anomalous (-3 to -4 and greater) easterly fetch developing which is always a hallmark of a major snowstorm in the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. It seems clear that models have made a noted shift on getting northern extent up to at least I-80 or so after spending several runs struggling to even get precip to the turnpike. However, key will be organization of precip shield..especially during daylight hours. Some models (esp GFS) still show a weakness with the precip shield and separate maxes... initially thrusting into OH and western PA and then southeastern PA with the coastal leaving a weakness in accums in the middle. A weakness this time of the year equates to rates that don't get fully realized on the ground. I had been pretty pessimistic on this storm the past couple days but with things looking more organized, I do think the potential of excessive totals is there. At the same time though, bust potential is absolutely there as well. I think we'll see both, and it's going to ultimately come down to where the best and most consistent precip rates and banding set up. Northern extent is going to be tight. It may or may not surpass I-80 but there looks to be a pretty good gradient. I think @Voyager's best bet is running I-80 as much as he can in PA. CTP will likely need to be throwing up headlines very soon and I would bet watches on the bottom two tiers of counties to open things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Watches up Here is mine Tuesday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Wednesday A chance of snow before 11am, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 40. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 332 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 ...Early spring storm to bring potential for long duration wet snow and mixed precipitation to portions of south central Pennsylvania Tuesday through Wednesday... PAZ033>036-064>066-201015- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0006.180320T1000Z-180322T0000Z/ Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 332 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT....Total snow accumulations of 6 inches or more are possible, especially in the higher elevations. Snow will mix with rain, freezing rain and sleet at times with ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of south central Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 And the wording for the other area of the LSV: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Perry, Dauphin, Schuylkill, Lebanon and Cumberland Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, canderson said: And the wording for the other area of the LSV: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Perry, Dauphin, Schuylkill, Lebanon and Cumberland Counties. I think this is a very good call for CTP get the public on notice with a watch and be conservative with amounts for now. Knowing how complicated this storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: What a roller coaster ride the last several days, this has easily been the worst storm of the winter to get a handle on. Model's are finally starting to converge on a more consolidated solution for this potentially long duration storm and have shifted heavier snows back north into the region. One thing that's different about this storm is the track of the parent low approaching from the south central US. With the blocking and suppressed storm track, this will keep the low south of PA vs trying to transfer a parent Great Lakes low to a coastal storm. The transfer spot is in a very good spot for our region with regards to maximizing the potential for a miller B. Models are showing a very broad and significantly anomalous (-3 to -4 and greater) easterly fetch developing which is always a hallmark of a major snowstorm in the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. It seems clear that models have made a noted shift on getting northern extent up to at least I-80 or so after spending several runs struggling to even get precip to the turnpike. However, key will be organization of precip shield..especially during daylight hours. Some models (esp GFS) still show a weakness with the precip shield and separate maxes... initially thrusting into OH and western PA and then southeastern PA with the coastal leaving a weakness in accums in the middle. A weakness this time of the year equates to rates that don't get fully realized on the ground. I had been pretty pessimistic on this storm the past couple days but with things looking more organized, I do think the potential of excessive totals is there. At the same time though, bust potential is absolutely there as well. I think we'll see both, and it's going to ultimately come down to where the best and most consistent precip rates and banding set up. Northern extent is going to be tight. It may or may not surpass I-80 but there looks to be a pretty good gradient. I think @Voyager's best bet is running I-80 as much as he can in PA. CTP will likely need to be throwing up headlines very soon and I would bet watches on the bottom two tiers of counties to open things up. I always think of this document when I see those kind of anomalies https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF964.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 54 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Watches up Here is mine Tuesday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Wednesday A chance of snow before 11am, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 40. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. lol just lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Holy 18z NAM, I'd say happy hour has started off with a bang, (this isn't done) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NAM plants the CCB along the PA Turnpike it appers and just bombs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Holy cow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Man im always right on the edge...Never seems to work out in the end for me though. Maybe this one will change that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, 2001kx said: Man im always right on the edge...Never seems to work out in the end for me though. Maybe this one will change that.. I always - always - root for you on this events because it seems you are forever fringed. I really hope you get the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, canderson said: NAM plants the CCB along the PA Turnpike it appers and just bombs away. It's a perfectly placed pivot of the storm for the entire state below I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 WOOZA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I can't read thermal profiles well at all; does NAM produce a ton of sleet for us before the snow kicks in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, canderson said: I always - always - root for you on this events because it seems you are forever fringed. I really hope you get the goods. Yeah it seems we cant get the big totals up this way...Its all nickle and dime type stuff all winter with an occasional 3-6" storm once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 15z SREF's are through the roof at KAOO, which looks like the station that was the winner this afternoon. A nearly 15" snowfall mean and a notable majority of members weighted ABOVE that mean. LSV stations were generally 10" or so. Without getting too wrapped up in how ridiculous those numbers are, it is definitely strongly supportive of a warning type snowfall for a bigger portion of the region than the initial watches encompass. That also illustrates that elevation is probably going to dictate where these excessive totals pop up if they do. KAOO is about 1500' asl. That whole central ridge and valley region as well as the southern Laurel's would really be favored for the biggest snowfall potential given strong easterly fetch (upsloping) and better thermals (elevation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 22 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Holy 18z NAM, I'd say happy hour has started off with a bang, (this isn't done) South of Turnpike, a lot of that is sleet verbatim. Check out Ferrier Method snow accumulation on the 3k. DRASTICALLY different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, AllWeather said: South of Turnpike, a lot of that is sleet verbatim. Check out Ferrier Method snow accumulation on the 3k. DRASTICALLY different. Definitely so, especially south of the mason-dixon line. That's a huge difference down there. That's also another worry this time of the year with the strong anomalous low level flow off the ocean... mixing potential especially in the southern fringes of the LSV. On the other hand, some of these bands that might set up under some of the better 700 lift could produce snow growth a tad above 10:1 that might get realized on the ground if it's intense or potentially at night.. as a lot of this storm is supposed to take place in the evening/overnight now. Like I mentioned in my last post, I think the best potential for excessive totals may end up being further west in the south central (ridge and valley and Laurel's) where there is more elevation while the LSV is still under the gun for warning snows. There are still some higher elevations in that region too. Nothing like things going crazy at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3K NAM Ferrier. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Man, I'll be stoked if we can pull off a 6-8" storm towards the end of March, looking doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Here's Pivotal's representation of the 3K using Kuchera. As best I can tell most of Cumberland county gets 12-15" except the southwest mountainous region which gets 20". I manually searched around the county with my cursor and it suddenly blew up from 14" to 21" around South Mountain region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 For the LSV, it will come down to CCB.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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